Potential scenario with China next year and your thoughts about it

It is entirely conceivable that China will invade Taiwan next year. They've been making rumblings and have further noted that they would be willing to go to nuclear war with the United States should the U.S. do anything to stop any attempts to bring Taiwan back into the mainland fold.

With that in mind, I present a scenario whereby Bush and the Republican PArty would be against the wall. If China invades Taiwan next summer, how will the administration react? Do they risk nuclear war because failure to protect Taiwan will peeve off a good portion of his hawk base, or does the administration look the other way calling it an "internal matter"?

We certainly live in interesting times.

It's too close to the Olympics. Besides, they're actually enjoying themselves diplomatically at the moment, extending their new-found soft power. A blockade is much more likely. Or - and this is an interesting one - "police action" in NK.

and you know what, maybe that's exactly the idea. Reagan-Bush looked the other way when they destroyed their domestic reform movement, and maybe they'll be happy to return the favor.

What better pretext for martial law in America?

Oh, shit.

If China were to invade now, they risk sinking their own economy when nations decide to cut off trade with China. Besides, they can't do it now. They don't even have a blue-water navy, just a bunch of coastal ships.

What the current Chinese government appears to want more than anything else is stability and predictability. They need time to consolidate the country's economic and military power. I doubt that they will be upsetting the apple cart in any dramatic fashion anytime soon.