Bush under 50% approval rating-- NEW ZOGBY POLL!

Released: October 20, 2003
Bush Job Performance Under 50; Leads all Democrats; Still Behind on Re-Elect and Against Generic Democrat; Majority of Likely Voters Proud of Bush, New Zogby Poll Reveals





Bush Job Performance Under 50; Leads all Democrats; Still Behind on Re-Elect and Against Generic Democrat; Majority of Likely Voters Proud of Bush, New Zogby Poll Reveals

Likely voters remain divided on President George W. Bush’s job performance, with half (49%) saying it is excellent or good and 51% saying fair or poor. Earlier in September, the president’s job performance rating reached the lowest point since pre-Inauguration, with 45% positive and 54% negative, then bounced up slightly in late September polling.

Bush Job Performance
Positive %
Negative %

October 15-18, 2003
49
51

September 22-24, 2003
50
49

September 3-5, 2003
45
54

August 2003
52
48

July 2003
53
46

March 2003
54
45

September 2002
64
36

September 2001
82
17

August 2001
50
49

January 2001
42
36


The Zogby America telephone poll of 921 likely voters chosen at random was conducted October 15 - 18, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Error margins are higher in sub-groups.

Overall opinion of Bush slipped slightly from September Zogby numbers. Nearly six in ten (56%) have a favorable opinion and 42% an unfavorable opinion now, compared to 58% favorable and 41% unfavorable in September 22 - 24 polling.

The president would outpoll any of the current leading Democratic contenders if the election were held today. He would earn 46% of the vote against retired General Wesley Clark’s 37%; would beat former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, 47% - 39%; would poll 45% against Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s 41%; would win over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt 47% - 38%, and would beat Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, 46% - 38%.

Yet when matched against an unnamed (generic) Democratic presidential contender, Bush would lose that theoretical match-up with 43%, compared to the Democrat’s 45%. In September polling, Bush would have lost to a generic Democratic, 41% - 45%.

Date
Bush %
Any Democrat %

October 15 – 18, 2003
43%
45%

September 22-24, 2003
41%
45%

September 3-5, 2003
40%
47%

August 2003
43%
43%

June 2003
44%
37%


The President remains behind in his ‘re-elect’ numbers, where 42% of likely voters now say he deserves to be re-elected, while half (50%) say they think it is time for someone new. In early September polling, 52% said it was time for someone new, and just two in five (40%) said he deserves re-election.

Date
Re-Elect Bush
Someone New

October 15-18, 2003
42%
50%

Sept 22-24, 2003
43
49

Sept 3-5, 2003
40
52

August 2003
45
48

June 2003
49
38


Only about two in five (43%) say they think the US is headed in the right direction, while half (50%) feel it is on the wrong track.

When asked if they are proud or ashamed of George W. Bush as President, nearly three in five (57%) likely voters say they are proud, one-quarter (26%) say they are ashamed, and one-fifth (18%) are not sure. Nearly nine in ten (87%) Republicans say they are proud, compared to 4% who say they are ashamed. A majority (51%) of Independents are proud, with 30% ‘ashamed,” while 31% of Democrats say they are proud of the president and 43% are ashamed.

Four Top Democratic Contenders Just Four Points Apart

Dean tops the list of nine Democratic hopefuls with 12%, followed by Clark with 10%, Kerry at 9% and Lieberman at 8%. Gephardt and former IL Senator Carol Mosley Braun are tied at 5%, while NC Senator John Edwards and civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton are tied at 3%. Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, who officially declared his candidacy last week, earned 1%. Six percent of the likely Democratic primary voters would opt for still another candidate, and nearly two in five (38%) remain undecided.

In late September national polling, Clark and Dean shared the lead with 12% each. No other candidate reached double digits, and Kerry led with 7%, followed by Gephardt at 6%. Lieberman had 5% of the vote, and Sharpton and Mosley Braun tied at 4% each. Edwards had 2%, and Kucinich and Florida Senator Bob Graham earned 1% each. Graham dropped from the race prior to the most recent poll.

Polling of Democratic contenders involved 500 likely Democratic primary voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

The poll was part of Zogby International’s “Road to Boston

Let's see CNN and Tweety discuss this poll and tell us why Bush is UNpopular.

The trend for Chimpy McCokespoon's approval and reselect numbers is pretty clear, but the only time I hear vigorous reporting of those numbers is during the dead cat bounces. Then Wolf and the others talk about the Popular Wartime President, and sell the public on a figure who bears no resemblence to the White House Squatter.

Now Zogby, which has been trailing or in the middle of the downward trends, shows Stupidhead below 50% approval (not "would you vote for this guy" but "do you approve" -- a very distinct question), I'd be willing to bet that Wolf and his cohorts will suddenly find the Kobe case totally engrossing.

I wouldn't worry too much that Bush doesn't win any of the head-to-head matchups. Since he doesn't have the majority in any of the hypotheticals, it just means there are a lot of undecideds, and since those same voters say they would support an unnamed Democrat (don't you wish we could run an unnamed Democrat? That would look funny on a ballot!), it just means that not everyone is sold on a single candidate yet. Past the primaries, when we all unite behind whoever wins, that will change.

BTW, is Kerry on an upswing, or has he been polling around that number in Zogby? I'm wondering if all the griping about there not being a good candidate is making people settle back on him, being a comfortable name for a lot of people. His name and his wealth both mean that he's always going to be within striking distance if Dean or Clark fall (and Clark will, at least for a while).

I have to say however that I think its funny how people around here rag on Zogby until he says something they like.

gallup washington post and fox news are the most accurate

just borrowing the troll's talking points, but this is good news for the democrats.

I hope it doesn't go down to the wire like it did in 2000.

These national figures are encouraging, but what about state-by-state numbers? It's one thing to say Bush will lose in a national contest; what matters is which states we have the greatest strength in.

57% are 'proud' of bush, yet 42% would re-elect. Either they are confused, the poll is wrong, or the questions were ambiguous.

... between thinking someone is doing a decent job, and thinking they're the best person for the job.