Chances of Impeachment By January 2009 (An Interactive Thread)

I am curious to hear what DUers think is the percentage chance that President George W. Bush will be impeached (whether or not he is removed from office) prior to January of 2009.

I am looking for your most cautious, conservative, well-reasoned estimate--what your head tells you, not what your heart desires.

You can put the percentage in the title of your post. This will help all of us to get a sense of whether or not any of us really think that all the scandal, mismanagement, and criminal conduct Bush is responsible for will actually bring him down politically. Because, to me, this is the fundamental question here. Which is not to say we shouldn't fight tooth and nail each and every day against this man, but to say, instead, that I wonder sometimes where all of this is headed, if anywhere at all, and I'm curious as to what others think.

I'll start things off: 1%.

S.

in 2006, and have a stronger showing in the Senate too, will there be a possibility of impeachment hearings. As for the percentage of probablility, I have not a clue.

If the 2006 election goes our way,Bush is history.


Another big factor is ROVE, if he goes down and DeLay it's 20* by 2007.

So hard to tell. At this point it is slim, but i will fight as hard as possible to push that number up.

If repugs stay in, no way.

Chances of having an honest election, 1 in a million.

If we don't get the congress back into democratic hands in 2006, there'll be NO impeachment.
That's why I wonder about the people who are thinking too far ahead (2008)..... we need to impeach him or render him useless and 2006 midterms are the only way to do that!

allowing spying on American citizens in violation of American laws.

Even if the Democrats regain control of Congress in '06, there will need to be so much to overcome that I do not see them doing so. The Republicans still maintain too much of a solid opposition to any attempts to get the President in any kind of trouble/face any consequences. The public maintains a short memory span, and soon this will go down the memory hole; and honestly, I think a certain percentage will enjoy this, feeling safer because he is going after those terrorists. Then the Democrats would have to become an effective and outspoken opposition party, and while some Congressional members are doing an excellent job of just that, I don't think there is enough spine amongst them to pull this off. Too much of that spirit of, well its in the past, lets work for the future, go along to get along, etc. Then the impeachment process would have to go smashingly, which I doubt. For whatever reason, it seems like the President is protected from on high by the prince of darkness himself. People fall on their swords for him, lie for him, fix his mistakes, etc. And this was just me rattling off the top of my head the things I think are in the way of an impeachment. If I spent more time, I suspect there are a lot of other reasons why it is unlikely to happen. Sorry all.

S.

Even if every single Democrat voted for it, it's doubtful that it would ever happen. About the best we should hope for is a Congressional censure.

Something is going to happen, that will finally turn the sheeple against *... My prediction it will come out with in the next 2 years.

peace.

First, it is unlikely that the Dems will take back the House, to begin with. There is too much the President can do, given his "bully" pulpit, to help swing the elections.

Second, unless 2/3 of the Senate is on our side, there's not much point. The Repukes failed to convict Clinton, and it cost them. If they had gotten a conviction, things would have been very different, by which I mean worse for the Dems.

Third, do Democrats really want Cheney, a man with a brain, in the White House? If it's just about payback, well and good, but if Dems expect to accomplish something constructive for the country, they would be better off using their increased leverage to pressure Bush and looking to 2008.

'Course, I could be wrong, this is just my opinion. But I think impeachment is just a wet dream.

and that 0.01% represents something new and horribly damning arising in the next three years.

Other members of the bush administration may be impeached, or otherwise legally implicated to the point where they "decide to spend more time with their families", as it were, but not bush. Here's why.

If the Dems don't take back the house, impeachment will not happen. All will become as whitewash on a stonewall.

If the Dems do take back the house, investigations will happen, then indictments of various lower-order bureaucratic scapegoats where possible, and only then would such a move be considered in the face of hard evidence directly fingering bush. As it stands right now, the Democrats have more to gain with a proven corrupt republican remaining in office until the 2008 elections than they do by challenging the nation's patience by running another impeachment process. Simply by bargaining with pukes for non-impeachment, Democrats can win huge procedural and legislative advantages, rather than risk turning public sympathy toward bush through what the media would surely portray as a partisan political circus.

And if at some point articles of impeachment were drawn up, with any hope of making it to the floor of the house for a favorable vote, I'd fully expect bush to pull a Nixon and step down, relying on Uncle Dick or whoever currently serves as VP to cast a pardon his way. This would, of course, obviate the impeachment process.

I'm not saying that bush's crimes don't richly deserve a sound impeaching, merely that public support for the process is too thin to be reliable.

:(

Boxer is about to call for it? And this scandal's only 72 hours old!

S.

If not: 2%

Before impeachment, several things must occur:

1. We, the progressive/liberal base, must make it very clear to all our elected officials that we will look with especial favor on those who call for and support impeachment. Those who do not will find us to be stingier than usual.

2. The media must not impede the voice of the common people who neither care for "conventional wisdom" nor ingratiating ourselves to those in power.

3. Our elected officials must overcome their congenital caution , and realize that they will be on the right side of history in supporting impeachment.

The likelihood of those things happening with a Republican-controlled house is marginal. With a Democratic congress that has the political wind at its back, much better.

Being a former Republican, I have faith that most who set out to serve our nation in DC have our country's best interests at heart. If Congress, regardless of who has the most butts in the seats, is shown proof that Bush et all violated the Constitution of the US, I believe impeachment proceedings will begin and/or Bush will be forced to resign.

I've been saying all along that even some Republicans will have beliefs that override their allegiance for Bush.

And I also believe that resignation is in the cards.

If he did, the "liberal media" would have just said "he was filling the boy with the Holy Presidential Sausage of Christ and bestowed a blessing on him"

Resignation in disgrace: 75%. It's just his karma. The man is engendering more bad will every time he opens his mouth. Honestly, it's going to do him in. It's just something I picture happening-it seems like the only natural end. It will come after more horror for everyone but it's the only thing that makes sense to me.

SO: push push push. Call for impeachment? Sure. Just keep up every bit of pressure on the man, he will crack eventually. Everything he touches is doomed. Including his "legacy."

If Bush is found to be using other Gestapo Tactics or if he asserts his rights to continue to use these methods in contravention of a specific order to cease and desist by SCOTUS. If he does that and I really think he is arrogant enough to try...There will be another Saturday night massacre because I think Gonzo would resign and he will be impeached by his own party.

Bold as that sounds. There are good Republican in the House who are concerned about unbridled and arrogant executive power.

republicans who have no balls, no pride, and no sense of right and wrong or what it actually means to be American.
They are the party of the sad and pathetic.

There will be noises about it from time to time, but it won't go any farther than that.

Despite evrything, this administration is still covered by Teflon. The media is already recasting the situation as Bush making a Big Comeback.