Juan Cole: Fundamentalist Shiites Will Dominate New Iraqi Parliament

It Looks like Iran won the Iraqi election. Go bush!

http://www.indybay.org/news/2005/12/1791810.php


Al-Zaman is reporting early returns for Baghdad. The United Iraqi Alliance is reputed to have 58 percent there, with the Iraqi Concord Front (Sunni) getting 19 percent. Allawi brings up the rear with 14 percent, a disastrous performance given that his list seems to have done nothing anywhere else. The list will likely see its strength in parliament halved.

These results suggest a very strong position for the United Iraqi Alliance. There were <59>* seats at issue in Baghdad province, the largest single lot. If the UIA got 35-40 of them, that is a huge victory. Add those 35 to the likely 70 or so the UIA got in the solidly Shiite provinces, and you have 105. Another 8 in Babil and it is 113. A similar number in Diyala and you'd have 121. Then they may get some of the reserved seats when the reapportionment is done. They will be very close to having the 138 it needs to form a government. They can certainly pick up a few small allies and do it, perhaps without needing either the Sunnis or the Kurds (though they will need an initial coalition to gain the 2/3s needed to elect a president to appoint the prime minister).

In other words, the Shiite fundamentalist parties have won again. The secularists lost badly. Allawi and Chalabi are out of the game. The question is only whether the Shiites align with the Sunnis or the Kurds, or both. See Andrew Arato's guest editorial if you want the details.

for democracy in Iraq. The Iraqi people showed tremendous courage going to the polls and voting last week. Thats what I heard from that Kira Phillips on CNN. What are we going to do when Iraq's new government signs a treaty with Iran and orders us out.

elections and majority rule. why is everyone acting surprised when the result was predictable based
on population and affiliation?

Did this juan cole expect the KURDS would get the majority of the votes?

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

:shrug:

because the neocons are fucking insane

is the lesson here. Iraq is a 'democracy' & if it becomes a Shiite Fundamentalist state then we have no one to blam but ourselves. If real elections were now held in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc - the Bin Ladin candidates would win. That is the reason the US has been supporting these repressive regimes.