I may not be the world's most brilliant strategist, but I can read a map

and I can read the numbers.

Any action taken against Iran will be come in the form of an airstrike. It's as plain as the nose on your face.

Look at any relief map of the border between Iran and Iraq. It's easy to move forces across that border.

The standing army of Iran is 520,000 strong. Add to that the fact that at any time, Iran can conscript 817,000 seventeen year olds.

The first thing that happens after the U.S. strikes the Iranian nuclear facilities is the Iranian army pours over the border.

We cannot fight a frontal war and take care of internal security in Iraq, nor can we move additional forces in place with an already overstretched ground force.

The moment we strike, the war explodes into a new realm and we bit off more than we can chew.

and crew trumped.

And what is gonna happen when we run up against a comptetent air force for the first time in decades?

Oh, it's much worse than that. One of the reasons Iraq has held together as well as it has,(a bit of an understatement, I realize,) is that the Shia majority has not actively engaged in attacks against US forces. The south already has eletrical supply agreements with Iran, oil service agreements,etc. The two primary political parties (DAWA and SCIRI) were both founded in Iran by Khomeini. If we along with Israel were to attack Iran, all hell would break loose against US troops who largely don't speak Arabic and don't know the good guys from the bad.

With that scenario all central operations would have to move back to Kuwait or Israel. That is even more of an unwinable war than what's in progress.

to get a majority of our forces sandwiched between angry insurgents in Iraq to the west and angry Iranians to the east.

Cuz, *co-Rummyco is stupid enought to do just that! I fear for our soldiers over there........

we'll be fighting them over there instead of here

and the US's only ally would be Israel. Britain would impeach Blair before they went to war. The US would be hanging in the wind and all hope of democracy in Iraq would crumble like a dried leaf in the desert.

all hope of democracy will crumble just like it is doing in America.


:cry:

Pakistan has nukes, just in case Isreal decides to use theirs.This could get real scary....And then Bush declares marshall law or divine right of kings, whichever is more outrageous!

like King Henry VIII - after all, he's only got two harlots :sarcasm: /daughters?

forever with Jesus. (I do not think that Jesus was consulted.)

Here's the Link. I'm not sure how reliable.
http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/dec2005-daily/18-12-2005/main/main11.htm

Iran and Syria Confront US With Defense Pact
by Ewen MacAskill in Beirut and Duncan Campbell


Iran and Syria heightened tension across the Middle East and directly confronted the Bush administration yesterday by declaring they had formed a mutual self-defense pact to confront the "threats" now facing them.

The move, which took the Foreign Office by surprise, was announced after a meeting in Tehran between the Iranian vice-president, Mohammed Reza Aref, and the Syrian prime minister, Naji al-Otari.

"At this sensitive point, the two countries require a united front due to numerous challenges," said Mr Otari.

more...

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0217-02.htm

I wonder how it will do against real missiles falling on the green zone?
No more IED's on the road - there will be real ED's.
And remember that war game before we invaded Iraq, where the general playing the Iraq side sunk our entire fleet?

the phony & felonious "Super Patriot" Republican North gave our "evil enemies" the means to shoot down our American pilots.

More Republican treason. Plain and simple.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_North

Patriot Missle is actually very accurate (well the one produced by Lockheed, called the PAC3, but also referred to as the Patriot).

The Patriot missle of the Persian Gulf War isn't the Patriot used today.

"The Patriot PAC 3 would not be a viable weapon against the Shahab."
http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:kzIHfjzsIKAJ:www.csees.net/%3Fpage%3Danalyses%26a_id%3D31+patriot+shahab&hl=en

God forbid.

the draft might be the straw that finally "mainstreams" the anti-war movement.

Iran was holding war games last week. It's getting
scarier by the minute. We have two crazy men that
want power, and our soldiers are right in the middle.

Territories..... Remember..it's all about "reclaiming the ME for Freedom."
While the Saudi's and Israeli's look on ...their Territories are NOW under Environmental Degradation from BUSH BOMBS/BUSH Depleted Unranium/BUSH ENVIRO DISASTER!

What the hell is wrong with these folks? Why can't they see that they NEED TO GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER! Sheesh! Is "Tribal Loyalism" so important that you allow yourself to be invaded by every Country out there that just needs your "Resources?"

:eyes:

Like .... Durante. :silly:

a few weeks ago to take on Iran. If not, we're in for a lot worse than what people realize or can imagine. Iran oil = China. China needs the black gold too much to sit back and let the US (or anyone else for that matter) destroy the flow just when things were getting good for the Chinese economy.
IF in fact the US has plans for Iran, and I have believed for a while that they do, we (US citizens) are in much much deeper crap than we can imagine.
Remember something, there are still debtors prisons in china, and they hold our note for the whole game.

It's a classic sort of strategy--wait until your opponent commits to one course, then take everything else on the board. Let the US move against Iran, and while the Iranians are retaliating, the Chinese invade something that they want: Taiwan, Kazakhstan, whatever.

Fortunately, though, I don't think that even the Shrublets are dumb enough to open up a war with Iran right now. They may be morons of the highest order, but they do know when public opinion is running against them. At least, Bush's advisors do--he couldn't know less. Because they still want to exist as a political party after 2006, they're doing all they can to spin things back in Bush's favor, and opening up another war isn't about to do that.

Cheney is already announcing or 'preparing the public' for expanded presidential powers. All of the discussions about shrubs popularity are a distraction. Reality is; the middle class is almost non-existant. We are in Iraq against all common sense and logic. Our economy is in sorry shape, with China and Japan holding the bulk of our notes. We have established a reputation as aggressors. Our military is decimated and mostly overseas. The public has proven that they are unwilling (en masse) to take to the streets, even when provoked with outright taunts from shrub and company. We saw exactly what we are in for in the aftermath of Katrina. Big talk, little action and no resources. Our media is no longer free, but bought and paid for by shrub and company (come on....iran bans western music? if that isn't a plant I don't know what is. Iran banned western music under Kholmieni)
we are given shreds and crumbs to placate the more unstable and reactionary of us (indictments and subpoenas and calls to investigate, the NRA refusing to back the Patriot Act) but these are nothing more than crumbs to keep us talking. We are magpies, distracted by the next shiny new scandal. What we are not is willing act as bravely, and with the foresight of our founding fathers. We are still entrenched in fear. The elderly are rightously afraid of what would happen if their checks are discontinued. The middle aged (myself included)having been downsized, outsourced, downsourced, and laid off are terrified of what happens when the cheesy temp jobs they trained so long to get dry up. The young are totally immersed in what if; what if there is a draft, what if McDonalds cuts their hours, what if they can't afford that new Ipod. We as a citizenry are distracted. This is what they wanted all along.
at the end of the day, shrub is a shill. Shrub can't grasp what any of this means. Most certainly not in how it relates to him. We are not his base. The huge balk of this country are not his base. Only the very wealthy who can afford to flee when the going gets really really tough support shrub. These are the same people giving him his marching orders.
We as a population and as human beings mean nothing to shrub.

My understanding is that Iran and China have agreements.

Am I wrong on this?

I would like to see some info.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55414-2004Nov16.html

China isn't going to give up the oil in iran without a fight. We are toast if the US decides to attack Iran.

As to China giving * the ok...there is considerable history between the bushes and China. Bush wasn't just making nicey nicey with the Chinese. His trip was important enough for his father to go over beforehand and pave the way. I doubt we'll know anytime soon what agreements were reached between the 2 countries, but nothing agreed to will benefit the US.

Did you see the history channel expose on Iran??

Of course the other issue - we really don't know what they have or don't have in terms of nuclear devices now. Were they buyers of old soviet nukes?? Apparently our administration thinks it more important to wiretap our OWN citizens then to actually do real intelligence work on this problem.

Yeah, the HC "generals" say the only likely 1st response is by our air force. Likely followed by Iranian ground movements. Potentially followed by American movements from east and west (Afghanistan and Iraq) in some pincer movement toward Tehran.

We do not have a good solution, but apparently it is being war-gamed right now.

The only consolation - B*sh isn't going to get another war resolution thru congress after the Iraq mess. We just have to hope Iran makes no aggressive movement toward us in the meantime.

We'll do a much, much better job with 60 million Iranians.

:eyes:

Yes an air strike.

thumbs when this happens?

taken down a peg or two.

Remember, we destroyed the USSR as a world power. I can't but believe they would love to see us humbled for that.

China is an outright enemy. We compete for the same natural resources.

I taught a class (business class) a few years ago. Had some Chinese students - scary. These people are scary. And then you think, any country that can control reproduction should be scary - They are.

behalf of Iran, since they do some business together? I'm not asking if Russia and China would help us, I'm asking if they would help Iran.

They don't have to.

Everybody does business with everybody, sooner or later.

They just have to sit back and watch us squirm, while China cuts deals for Iranian oil.

A passive victory for them. And they know it.

If it ever does become more than a passive fight for them we are looking at total Armageddon.

I point out, at best, we are 1-1-1 against Asian countries in war, and the trend is not good.

When access to Iranian oil is disrupted? China and Russia can bide their time while we self distruct. Russia has the internal resources to survive for quite a while and are used to deprivation. The Chinese have enough ready cash to weather oil price spikes and with a top-down economy they can control any potential losses internally. The notion that either or both would move in to fill vacuums in other locales is quite valid.

Don't count out the EU either. They would be ready to level the world-wide playing field should the DC goon squad be so reckless. Taken as a whole, the EU has much more to risk/gain from a rogue misAdministration ploy in the Mid East. They are the ones that have seen attacks in recent times.

rummy reminds chimpy :nuke:

peace

greeted as liberators and the Iran people will pay for the war. I am certain that Iran has nuclear facilities near Tehran to the east, west, north, and south. We will start with our world famous "Fucked and Awed" campaign, followed by insufficient troop numbers with no kevlar jackets and riding in Toyota Solara convertibles.

good one

Consider this - a Shi'ite Iranian supported government forms in Iraq (seems most likely at the moment). The government then orders the withdrawl of US troops. The US of course refuses and says they can only leave once the Iraqi government is able to fight the insurgency. The Shi'ite government says "No problem, we have invited our neighbour Iran to send forces to train our military and to help fight the insurgency. They will be entering Iraq shortly..."

What does the US do then?

The "democratically elected" and "sovereign" government of Iraq has ordered the US to leave and has invited Iran to send in its military. For the US to do ANYTHING other than pull out confirms that the US is NOT interested in a sovereign Iraq, and will have proven the entire war to be a war crime.

If the US doesn't pull out, then Iranian troops will be LIBERATING Iraq from foreign occupation at the request of the legitimate and UN recognised Iraqi government.

Hello WWIII.

Because this sorry excuse doesn't - to this day - see the obvious. You do.

I think it is very likely to happen. They really don't like us.

And I really don't like them (Iraq). It seems to me, in our country, we fielded an army and won major battles well before the Contintental Congress got its act together against the number one army at the time (England).

It will be three years in March for Iraq. Seems to me deployment to victory in Europe didn't take that long (sept 42 - may 45).

It is a problem with democracies - what does one do when you don't like the responses?

GOOD POST - WELL THOUGHT OUT

The US has used it many times in the past, notably Vietnam - set up a puppet government and have that government invite you to "assist" them. It's on old, tried and true formula that everyone knows. I have no doubt Iran knows it too. Hell they were the victim of it at one stage!

It is my firm belief that the ONLY reason the Shi'ites haven't been actively involved in the insurgency is because they understand this and realise that if they WERE an active part of the insurgency the second part of the plan couldn't work (inviting Iran to help fight the insurgents).

I would be HIGHLY surprised if this does NOT come to pass.

Claims the last election was corrupt. But with Diebold machines with no paper trail everyone can be certain that the right party will win.

And that would be Allawi's party.

illegally occupying Iraq?

Remember, this election has resulted in a democratically elected UN recognised government. That means that the US is no longer the recognised "government" in Iraq. Remember all that hoopla about handing over sovereignty? The US could call for another election, but if they IMPOSED one, then they would have once again overthrown a democratically elected government - all justification for the Iraq invasion and occupation would be gone the moment they did it.

Then the US becomes an illegal occupying power, forcing the UN to call for their withdrawl, or to stand by and watch as nations such as China and Russia and ME nations form coalition with legal and moral justification to liberate Iraq from foreign occupation, exactly like the US formed a coalition to liberate Kuwait.

The end result is that the US leaves, the UN is disbanded, and/or WWIII breaks out.

damn right it would spill over

Iranian plant for the Bushies will take care of it all for us. He's orchestrated the scenario for what you say will happen to the BushBots/Cheney/PNAC'ers and they know whats best for our interests in the ME. And the Carlyle Group is comfortable with the scenario...so :wtf: Don't Worry......Be Happy!

Afghanistan: OBL still on the loose. Strike.
Iraq: Bigger security threat now than under Saddam. Strike two.
Iran: US warplanes massacre a half million teen age Irani conscripts???

If it happens it will be then

military and civilian populations?

Read this thread to see what connecting the dots got me:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5653533

"Any action taken against Iran will be come in the form of an airstrike. It's as plain as the nose on your face".

a place close enough to mount continuous attacks if necessary. Old W is gearing up for the next invasion.

get your hands on a copy of this book: American Hiroshima by David J. Dionisi
the author is a former Intelligence officer, very knowledgeable on that part of the Middle East, especially Iraq and Iran. (former Republican, left it, and now not affiliated with any party)

He's been a few radio talk shows in the past few weeks, i met him at peace rally in San Francisco a year or so ago, and this book was just published.

Very knowledgeable guy, grave scenarios if we continue the path, but he says we can reverse this, if we change the course, ASAP. We can let the people in that part of the world know that we have no intention of occupying their countries, and we have no intention of owning and controlling their oil and he says the largest source of water supply in the entire region is in Iraq, and we need to get our hands off that resource as well.

anyway, all this to say he's trying give people the heads up that we're on the very precipice of nuclear war with Iran. He claims that Iran has several nuclear missiles, building them for years. Also, he said people there are freaked out of their minds expecting us to attack them. They're shaking in their shoes with fear that we're about to launch missiles.

We need to impeach these these mad men occupying the white house right now. and by the way, it's really Dick Cheney that's the real puppet master, W. is merely his front man/puppet.

B

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5650584
thread title (10/20 GD): Goss asked Ankara to be ready for a possible US AIR OPERATION!!!!

Gotta prevent Iran's planned oil bourse in spring - er- all them there BOMBS (that the best intelligence says they don't have).

That country on the western border of Iraq. We've already had skirmishes near that border, even some inside Syria, according to some reports.

...is "strategerist."

...then the USAF will decimate Iranian ground forces as they move into Iraq. They might very well have tunnels still in existence from the Iran/Iraq war (although I don't know this as fact).

Please understand that the above is NOT in defense of a strike on Iran, rather a warning that any ground war with Iran could ultimately lead to the use of "limited" nukes in the USAF inventory.:scared:

Especially when Iran has one of the worlds most sophistcated SAM missiles. But lets say Iranian forces are indeed decimated - that still suggests a casualty rate that the Iranians may be able to withstand - 100 to 200 thousands losses is not much when you have an army of over a million and the willingness to take those losses (see Iran-Iraq War).

Don't forget that Iraqi Shi'ites will immediately unleash an insurgency that would make the current one look like a minor disagreement. Thousands of suicide bombers is NOT an over estimate. Finally factor in the Pakistan statement of support, and the likely Chinese and Russian support, and the 150,000 US troops in Iraq would be in a VERY precarious position.

So what then? Pull troops out of Korea etc to help defend Iraq? What will the North Koreans do? A weakness in the defence and a seeming coalition against the US at the same time? Perfect opportunity to end their war once and for all. How about Taiwan? If you ask me, an attack on Iran would set the ball rolling on WWIII. I dont care how sophistcated US forces are, they are just not NUMEROUS enough. That means resorting to nukes. That means M.A.D. Will the US congress and all those rich people risk having their world turned into a radioactive rock for something as meaningless as a few Iranian nukes, or even oil? I doubt it.

The one thing the rich care about is their power and wealth - that would all be meaningless if the nukes fly.

have not been decimated by 12 years of economic isolation. A 'limited nuclear war' fits their purposes perfectly. First the nation will rally to *, then it will provide the excuse for enacting the few remaining objectives they have (draft, dictator in name, etc.), and it will plunge the world into economic chaos resulting in unimaginable profits for those in position to take advantage. OO, and the added bonus of oil prices to hit the $200 - $400 p/barrel prices they can only dream of now.
I can hardly wait. Edited to add: :eyes:

They have a HUGE army and Musharraf could use a distraction right about now.

Remember Pakistan is a Muslim nation, and another attack on a Muslim nation will confirm that ALL Muslim nations are on the chopping block - Hell Musharraf couldnt STOP the Pakistani people and military from supporting Iran. He would be gone in a second if he tried. You have to remember that it was in the Madrassa's of Pakistan that the Taliban learned their religion. Pakistan had more to do with the creation of Muslim fundamentalism than just about any other nation.

The fact is the Bush admin are idiots or suicidal - they either don't know what the hell they are doing, or they know very well that they would provoke WWIII and are hoping for exactly that. Either way, if they do what they want we are ALL fucked.

Just ask Saddam Hussein. And view the mass graves from the Iran-Iraq war. Iran is so populous that they have an unlimited number of young men willing to fight and die. They just keep coming, in wave after wave, with the "keys to the kingdom" attached to their necks. Just the thought makes my blood run cold. How stupid is George Bush* anyway? Just a rhetorical question...:shrug:

"How DESPERATE is George Bush?"

heard. Since I watched his speech on Sunday night and his press conference on Tuesday am. One of his many, as he said. :eyes: Has any other president ever been so desperate? I can't imagine so. Jimmy Carter, my president, was definitely between a Iran and a hard place, during the hostage crisis, but he still remained cool and in control, no matter what happened, and it can't have been easy. But I'm afraid that this guy has lost it. If nothing else, couldn't he be impeached because of that?!:shrug:

whole 'nother matter.

I guess that Bush* figures that any war is desirable, but is just sick and tired of harassment by the Gold Star mothers...:grr:

With a "coalition of the willing" to help out.

Some are right inside cities.

We are all ready for just about anything at this point.

I suspect the most likely scenario is that Israel would be the one to take military action.