help with a term paper (turkey and LGBT rights)

hey guys, i have a 12-page final in my european union class, and i'm writing about turkey being able to bring up to speed its lgbt rights laws with the eu, my points are that the lure of an improved economy like ireland's will continue to guide the elites in power toward membership and that even the current party may talk and threaten to dismantle the secularism in place, but it's just a rouse to keep the base happy. at this late point in the game i will not accept thesis changes (slight adjustments perhaps) as it took me a while to get to where i am and i have a lot of research lined up. where du comes in is in checking if my flow is good and if i'm building up to my point well. i could also always use more references, especially from journals and academic studies/surveys, but even news links to point out specific events.

even if you don't like it, tell me what's wrong

super wonky title: "The Socio-Cultural Element of the Turkish Question: Secularism and Salafiyya, the People and the Politicians in the Debate on Civil Rights Concordance"

outline:
1. Thesis and layout
a. As Turkey tries to join the EU, there will inevitably be conflict between the predominantly Muslim population’s conservative approach to the question of civil rights for the LGBT community and the EU’s established progressive positions.
b. The question would be if the forces in favor of integration can convince the population with the lure of increased business and the success stories of Ireland and Spain and if that’ll trump social friction. Ultimately, I think they will, although it’ll be a struggle with the right being very vocal about having to challenge what they’ll inevitably present as “traditional Turkish values” being challenged and surrendered to Brussels.
c. To answer this question, we’ll try to see if there have been similar situations that compare with another large, conservative country that recently joined the EU, Poland, and the political forces that were involved in the pro-integration movement and whether any traditionalist forces used civil rights as a wedge
i. First I’ll have to see if gay civil rights (e.g. Art 13, EC Treaty 2002) was even an issue when Poland was in the negotiation phase, if not, I’m sure there is some similar issue I can compare it to that would drive out right wing religious activism on the side of the nationalist movement.
ii. Second, I’ll close off by giving a quick run-through of popular wedge issues for right wingers throughout Europe to see if we can draw any similarities and then compare how those similar tactics could be applied to the particular situation of Turkey (that it is predominantly Muslim) in contrast with the rest of the EU
d. Another way answer the question in a way that is Turkey-specific would be to analyze the impact of Salafiya versus the continued development of Turkish secularism. If we can see real chinks in the armor of TS (especially when it comes to any Islamist party/coalition in power) then integration will be even harder
e. This leads into whether average Turks, having already shown their willingness to uproot and move to Europe following the labor market will ultimately put their pocketbooks ahead of their Korans, as I think they will.
2. “The Smokescreen of Tradition”
a. Poland as a case study of integrating a large, conservative state
i. Interests and movements on the Right using social issues as a wedge.
ii. LGBT rights in particular, non-discrimination (esp. women?) in general as a rallying cry against Europe
iii. Past Right-wing movements against other liberal change (not including anti-communism)
b. Does the Right’s tactics follow a pattern that can be applied in Turkish society?
i. Past anti-Europe movements at major EU landmarks including Constitutional ratification
ii. Turkish political institutions’ ability to transpose a distinctly Turkish message based on the rest of the European Right’s opposition message
3. “The Peculiarity of Turkey”
a. Salafism is sweeping the Umma, so it’ll be interesting to see the dynamic that’ll play out as it confronts the Turkish establishment’s staunch secularism.
i. Impact on Egypt as an indicator of its effect on a large, secular state
ii. Impact on Saudi Arabia as an indicator of its effect on a state whose establishment is strongly business-oriented, yet wahabbist
iii. Impact on Iran as an indicator of its effect on a large, non-Arab Middle Eastern multi-party state with grass-roots efforts to secularize
b. Early Turkish political development after WWI
i. Secularization and westernization during the growth of Salafiyya
ii. Building a westernized bourgeoisie (led by Ataturk himself) that continues today as the Turkish elite/establishment pushing to join Europe
c. Turkish economic performance
i. Before and after participation in customs union
ii. Prospects for development that are unique to Turkey in an attempt to replicate Ireland and Spain’s success
iii. Possible comparison to Mexican and Polish migration patterns, pre/post NAFTA and pre/post EU membership, respectively
d. Contemporary assimilation into Europe
i. Assimilation in contrast to other major, migrant, Muslim groups: Arabs, Afghans, Pakistanis, Iranians
ii. Perceptions within a Europeanizing Turkish society (the educated, the youth, urbanites, etc)
iii. Joining Europe and the current Turkish political landscape
1. People for membership, nationalist interests/military hesitant, symbols and signs of the secularist/Islamist conflict
4. Conclusions
a. Everybody has a price?
i. Something that was purposefully left out is the Cyprus issue, as it seems to be its own beast. That being said—
ii. I started the class obviously with a minimal knowledge of the workings of the EU, and aware of the existence of friction with Turkey about membership. Initially it would seem that it was mainly business elites that would favor membership, but there really does seem to be a popular movement for it. Majority opinions don’t always matter, though, so for now the nationalist Right will have a falsely loud presence when it comes to the idea of losing “Turkishness,” and will, as all desperate losing movements do, revert to any means to gather support. Clearly a focus will be on Cyprus, the Kurds, and the role of the military itself, but I’m sure they’ll say something about gay rights, even though homosexuality is already legal. The establishment obviously sees the benefits of membership so the usual feet-dragging seen in member states will take place in adding anti-discrimination legislation as it is a topic that has been gaining more and more space in the public debate.
iii. Ultimately the nationalist thing is to join, and hope for the success others have had since expansion. While the social and military debate will grab all the headlines and arouse the most passion, the lucrative economic pragmatism will carry the day
iv. (possible) I can make further points about how non-Turk Muslim communities have remained isolated while Turks integrate better, especially in places like Germany? The point being yet another example that Turks are ready for Europe

thanks a bunch!