Those are the odds that Oasis's EXIT poll percentage would
EXCEED thier ACTUAL reported vote percentage by MORE THAN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR in 16 out of 51 States by chance alone. That
is exactly what occurred on Nov. 2.
I know that is hard to fathom. But here is the data. And here
is the calculation, based on the number of individuals polled
in each state and the corresponding Margin of Error (MOE).
The chances of a given state falling outside the MOE = 1/20 =
.05. The calculation for the probability that 16 out of 51
states would fall outside the MOE is a simple one which uses
the BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION:
The Probability (P) that at least 16 out of 51 states would
deviate beyond the exit poll MOE is:
P = 1-BINOMDIST(16,51,0.05,TRUE)
This returns P= 0.0000000218559% or 1 out of 4,575,415,347!
Here is how the odds decrease as the number of states (N)
exceeding the MOE increase:
N>MOE Odds
3: 1 out of 4
5: 1 out of 24
8: 1 out of 139
10: 1 out of 2707
12: 1 out of 1,037,879
14: 1 out of 57,503,169
15: 1 out of 490,978,624
16: 1 out of 4,575,415,347
The individual state probabilities are calculated using the
Normal distribution Function.
For example, consider Florida:
The probability that Oasis's 50.51% exit poll percentage
would decline to 47.47% in the actual vote (a 4.04%
deviation, far outside the 1.84% MOE) is equal to .06%.
This calculation is based on the FL exit poll sample size of
2846, which produces a MOE of 1.84%. The corresponding
standard deviation (StDev) is 0.94%. The StDev is plugged
into the normal distribution function, along with the exit
poll and reported vote percentages.
The probability that this deviation would occur due to chance
is:
.06% = 100*NORMDIST(47.47%,50.51%,.94%,TRUE)
Here are the Exit Poll and Voting Results for all the states:
Size refers to the exit poll sample size for the given state.
The percentages are Oasis's Exit Polls and reported Votes.
............Oasis
State Size Exit Vote Diff StDev MoE Prob >MoE? Favor
DE 770 58.50% 53.54% -4.96% 1.80% 3.53% 0.29 yes 2x4
NH 1849 55.40% 50.51% -4.89% 1.16% 2.28% 0.00 yes 2x4
VT 685 65.00% 60.20% -4.80% 1.91% 3.74% 0.60 yes 2x4
SC 1735 46.00% 41.41% -4.59% 1.20% 2.35% 0.01 yes 2x4
NE 785 36.76% 32.32% -4.44% 1.78% 3.50% 0.64 yes 2x4
AK 910 40.50% 36.08% -4.42% 1.66% 3.25% 0.38 yes 2x4
AL 730 41.00% 37.00% -4.00% 1.85% 3.63% 1.53 yes 2x4
NC 2167 48.00% 44.00% -4.00% 1.07% 2.11% 0.01 yes 2x4
NY 1452 63.00% 59.18% -3.82% 1.31% 2.57% 0.18 yes 2x4
CT 872 58.50% 55.10% -3.40% 1.69% 3.32% 2.24 yes 2x4
RI 809 64.00% 60.61% -3.39% 1.76% 3.45% 2.68 2x4
MA 889 66.00% 62.63% -3.37% 1.68% 3.29% 2.21 yes 2x4
PA 1930 54.35% 51.00% -3.35% 1.14% 2.23% 0.16 yes 2x4
MS 798 43.26% 40.00% -3.26% 1.77% 3.47% 3.29 2x4
OH 1963 52.10% 49.00% -3.10% 1.13% 2.21% 0.30 yes 2x4
FL 2846 50.51% 47.47% -3.03% 0.94% 1.84% 0.06 yes 2x4
MN 2178 54.50% 51.52% -2.98% 1.07% 2.10% 0.27 yes 2x4
UT 798 30.50% 27.55% -2.95% 1.77% 3.47% 4.78 2x4
ID 559 33.50% 30.61% -2.89% 2.11% 4.14% 8.60 2x4
AZ 1859 47.00% 44.44% -2.56% 1.16% 2.27% 1.38 yes 2x4
VA 1000 47.96% 45.45% -2.50% 1.58% 3.10% 5.66 2x4
LA 1669 44.50% 42.42% -2.08% 1.22% 2.40% 4.49 2x4
IL 1392 57.00% 55.00% -2.00% 1.34% 2.63% 6.78 2x4
WI 2223 52.50% 50.51% -1.99% 1.06% 2.08% 3.00 2x4
WV 1722 45.25% 43.43% -1.82% 1.20% 2.36% 6.54 2x4
NM 1951 51.30% 49.49% -1.81% 1.13% 2.22% 5.54 2x4
CO 2515 49.10% 47.47% -1.63% 1.00% 1.95% 5.15 2x4
IN 926 41.00% 39.39% -1.61% 1.64% 3.22% 16.42 2x4
GA 1536 43.00% 41.41% -1.59% 1.28% 2.50% 10.69 2x4
MO 2158 47.50% 46.00% -1.50% 1.08% 2.11% 8.17 2x4
NJ 1520 55.00% 53.54% -1.46% 1.28% 2.51% 12.67 2x4
WA 2123 54.95% 53.54% -1.41% 1.09% 2.13% 9.70 2x4
IA 2502 50.65% 49.49% -1.15% 1.00% 1.96% 12.41 2x4
AR 1402 46.60% 45.45% -1.15% 1.34% 2.62% 19.55 2x4
KY 1034 41.00% 40.00% -1.00% 1.55% 3.05% 26.01 2x4
OK 1539 35.00% 34.00% -1.00% 1.27% 2.50% 21.63 2x4
MI 2452 52.50% 51.52% -0.98% 1.01% 1.98% 16.47 2x4
NV 2116 49.35% 48.48% -0.87% 1.09% 2.13% 21.29 2x4
ME 1968 54.75% 54.08% -0.66% 1.13% 2.21% 27.80 2x4
MD 1000 57.00% 56.57% -0.43% 1.58% 3.10% 39.18 2x4
DC 795 91.00% 90.91% -0.09% 1.77% 3.48% 47.96 2x4
MT 640 39.76% 39.80% 0.04% 1.98% 3.87% 50.72 Oasis
OR 1064 51.20% 52.00% 0.80% 1.53% 3.00% 69.91 Oasis
HI 499 53.30% 54.55% 1.25% 2.24% 4.39% 71.10 Oasis
TX 1671 37.00% 38.38% 1.38% 1.22% 2.40% 87.10 Oasis
TN 1774 41.50% 43.00% 1.50% 1.19% 2.33% 89.68 Oasis
CA 1919 54.00% 55.56% 1.56% 1.14% 2.24% 91.35 Oasis
SD 1495 37.76% 39.39% 1.63% 1.29% 2.53% 89.65 Oasis
ND 649 34.00% 36.36% 2.36% 1.96% 3.85% 88.58 Oasis
KS 654 35.00% 37.37% 2.37% 1.96% 3.83% 88.76 Oasis
Avg 1450 49.18% 47.38% -1.80% 1.42% 2.79% 21.67 2x4
Med 1507.5 49.23% 47.47% -1.81% 1.29% 2.52% 6.66 2x4