2004 Electoral Math: Very Simple

I put all the Gore states into the electoral equation, including the close ones. Those states are: ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, MI, IL, WI, MN, IA, NM, CA, WA, OR, HI. That's 260 electoral votes this time around (270 needed to win).

So, assuming you can defend all those states, here's what you need to win (pick any one):

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Nevada AND West Virginia
4. Arkansas AND (NH, NV, or WV)
5. Missouri
6. Arizona

Short list of states, isn't it? Pretty simple. I think the Democratic nominee will have to gun for Florida, since that one's also insurance against the loss of a Gore state. (Paging Bob Graham!) But my favorite secondary formula is Nevada and West Virginia.

in Florida, perhaps that's the key to concentrate on (to actually count the votes I mean).

I wouldn't leave out Arizona, if you campaign hard enough and explain how the Bush policies are hurting the people of AZ(which they are, unemployment his higher in AZ then the national average among other things) Arizona will go Democratic guarantteed. But the candidate with the best shot to pick up Arizona is John Kerry IMHO.

That puts us at 270 exactly.

Draw Bush into fighting for the others you mention, but make sure you win Gore's + AR + NH. That'll carry the day.

Arizona and maybe Florida (damn Jeb), are doable. I don't know enough about Missouri (although didn't they vote Ashcroft out :)), and I have my doubts about Ohio

I think we'll have a harder time there than in a few of the red states.

The main reasons Gore lost such states as Florida, Nevada, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio is because (a) he supported gun control and (b) many people had questions about Gore on moral issues.

and touch screen voting which makes things not quite the same as 2000 if you know what I mean!

Were too close to consider "in the bag" next time. Tho I think they'll be safe considering the 2002 elections favored Dems.

so take that into account. You actually need two or three of the other states (unless you get Florida)

Let us take each one at a time.

1. Florida--Run by Jeb Bush and the Republicans. Hard to put all your eggs in this basket, they fixed the vote before, they are ready again.

2. Ohio
Democrats have not won the majortity vote in this state for a long time. Clinton was only successful here because of the Perot factor

3. Nevada AND West Virginia

Again, Neveda would not vote for Democratic because Clinton and the Yuccma Valley Nuclear waste. Dumping the world's waste just 35 miles away for people's homes was a bad idea. Plus Senator Ensign is highly popular and will work to defeat us here.

West Vriginia, can't win without selecting Gov. Mike Warner-VA. Are core support we lost because of environmential regulations that shut down and/or hurt the mining industry. Not to mention their are huge sales for military contracts would go away under a Democratic Administration.
4. Arkansas AND (NH, NV, or WV)

Arkansas is doable. NH is too, but the problem here is that you can't get both unless you got someone from the states. The interests of NH and Arkansas are often opposite of eachother. Increased environmential regulations hurt AR but hurt NH. Make up your mind which one you want.
5. Missouri
Long Shot. Gephardt might carry the state. But Gephardt will cost other chances in Florida and else where.

6. Arizona
Right! Why not Utah and Alaska, Texas, or Wyoming, this is like never gonna happen. Arizona is 50% Republican off the bat. McCain would step in if we got even close anyway.

Clark/Warner would bring in the 260 electoral votes and 13 from Virginia, 5 from W.Virginia, and 6 from Arkansas, making 284 electoral votes that could not be stopped. The two southerners would also carry Florida but that will not show considering the votes are count is controlled. So you have to win without Florida, they don't know to count votes in that state.


:kick:
J4Clark

And he will get lower in 2004. He may not lose it, but he will be below 50.

1. OK. Yes Jeb fixed the vote in 2000, but I know that Democrats are still mad about it, especially in Florida. Florida Democrats will just need to be reminded by a candidate that they were cheated out of Al Gore for president in 2000, and they will make this race competitive.

2. Ohio has leaned Repuke in the past. However, as I have mentioned many times in the past, Democrats have started to pickup a great deal of momentum in Great Lakes states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois. Though most of their congressional makeup is still Repuke, but that's only because of terrible redistricting. Debbie Stabenow recently took one of these Senate seats and Joe Hoeffel and (insert Illinois candidate) will probably win in 2004, leaving only Rick Santorum. Additionally, all four of these states went for Democratic governors in 2002. Ohio is a Great Lakes state and I believe will become the next of these states to go Democrat. They would've lost their Repuke governor if a decent candidate had run, like Lee Fisher or Sherrod Brown. Just watch, Eric Fingerhut will do fairly well against George Voinovich (much better than expected) and a really strong Democrat (again, like Lee Fisher or Sherrod Brown) will beat Mike DeWine in 2006. We can capitalize on this movement by really pushing Ohio into our column in 2004.

3. Nevada will be difficult. Possibly we'll benefit from the West Coast movement to the left and Harry Reid's legendary get-out-the-vote machine. As for West Virginia, that could very easily go our way. They only have one Repuke in a high profile position (Shelly Moore Capito) and if we really show how much Bush has been trashing the economy, we could win this state. Additionally, if we run someone who's a better candidate than Jim Humphreys, we could pick off Shelly Moore Capito. We need seats like this if we're going to win back the House (and I believe that we can win back the House. The election is in 16 months. Anything can happen.)

4. New Hampshire should swing our way. It is the last true holdout in the New England area, but recent elections have led me to believe that NH may start to swing left. It is one of only two states that Bush won with under 50 percent of the vote (the other being Florida). If we can keep Nader at bay, this state could go our way.

Like WV, the majority of Arkansas's elected officials remain Democrat. We have to capitalize on this. Get Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor out there supporting our candidate. We have to have a candidate that isn't so ostracized that they can't campaign with our Southern candidates and office-holders.

5. Missouri is not a longshot, but it isn't going to be a cakewalk either. The state is constantly swinging back and forth. We've got a competitive governor's race in 2004, along with what could become a competitive senate contest. The House race for Gephardt's seat will bring out some new (probably progressive voters), eager to replace a strong Democrat with a strong Democrat.

6. Arizona is not the Republican bastion that it once was. This is not Utah or Idaho we're talking about here. In 2002, this state elected a DEMOCRAT as their governor. No statewide Republican could muster more than 51.2 percent of the vote. The highest voter percentage a candidate received statewide was Atty. Gen. Terry Goddard, a DEMOCRAT. We can win this. The Pacific Coast states are quickly switching to the Democrats (with 3 Democratic governors and 5 Democratic senators, the only Repuke being Sen. Smith, who would've lost with a decent challenger like For. Gov. John Kitzhaber), and Arizona and New Mexico, though not techinically Pacific Coast states, seem to be following the trend.

Or, I should say, his heavy hand is throwing the dice. The prize is bigger than just getting this year's governor, it's our 54 electoral votes next year.

win Florida with Graham on either spot on the ticket.

Latest poll from FL:
"If Graham were the Democratic nominee for president and the election were held today, he would lose to President Bush 51 to 39 percent, according to the poll."
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/6465621.htm

I think the best chances to pick up Bush sates are NH and WV, if the Democratic nominee won all the Gore states plus NH and NV, the Electoral votes would be 269 each! First the Supreme Court selected Bush in 2000, and it is possible Republican controlled House of Representatives might select Bush in 2004!!

You're taking a lot for granted there and something that Dems need to worry about in a big way is that CA could well be in play and end up going red. We have a state supreme court that is way more conservative than the FL one so the federal SS won't even have to step in when things go crazy. If CA's 54 electoral votes go to the Republican's kiss the election goodbye.

it's about Issa trying to buy the governorship and then being forced out when it was realized he had no chance. The Repukes wouldn't bother stealing California for vote fraud when the Dems still solidly control the legislature and state offices, they'd just go to New York, which already has a Republican governor, Senate and Secretary of State. If the White House is behind this it's about anything it's hiding the Enron mess.

And if you don't think that this has them scheming you're crazy.

Both could very easily go our way. I've started to hear rumors about Gephardt being a possible VP (can't remember where). If it were a ticket like Kerry/Gephardt or Dean/Gephardt, New Hampshire, West Virginia (with the big union support), and Missouri could all go fairly easily to the Democrats. Then all we'd have to do would be to keep all of Gore's states in a row and we'd be set.

If we keep all the blue states, I don't think it'll be too difficult to win the other 10, as you've said. However, keeping all the blue states is going to be very challenging. Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnisota and Wisconsin were all very close. Plus, with Dubya's money, he's putting other states into play. And again, there's the voting machine thing to think about.

all of those weren't anywhere near as close if you add in the Nader vote. And Nader's not going to do so great this time around.

back into the limelight. That would be Harry Reid's job. And, Robert Byrd could easily sway WV these days.