Establishments and Outsiders

The tax issues, polls and politicians say, isn't the death trap for Democrats it once was. But to reverse the ill-conceived Bush tax cuts now requires a tax increase, and Dr. Dean has to persuade people they are getting something tangible in return.

His support for civil unions has Karl Rove licking his chops; the right-wing hit squads will be vicious on this one. Again, however, if a candidate can frame this as a matter of equality, rather than a moral preference, it can be neutralized; this month's Wall Street Journal/NBC news poll shows the public solidly supports civil unions and attendant benefits but not gay marriages.

Like any outsider, Howard Dean should expect more than the usual share of scrutiny and attacks. And it'll start soon. When John McCain threatened the Republican establishment four years ago, it generated a truly vicious attack on him. "We're out of business," under Mr. McCain, acknowledged one GOP fat cat. With his remarkable early success, Hamilton Jordan notes, Howard Dean faces an added burden: "He'll have to withstand these attacks for a longer period of time."

The odds still are against Howard Dean; he may not be ready for prime time. If he is, however, watch for the day that Al From jumps on the campaign bus.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/wsj/?id=110003864

gets taxed under his plan.