How Gephardt could muscle in and win

If Gephardt can win in Iowa, esp. if it's an upset over Howard Dean, he instantly becomes a strong candidate, and could turn the fight for the nomination into a 3-way battle between him, Dean/Kerry, and Edwards/Lieberman/Graham.

Let's say that an Iowa loss cuts Dean's momentum and Kerry wins in NH. Then let's say that Edwards or Lieberman (or, in theory Graham) wins in SC. It becomes a battle between Gephardt, Edwards, and Kerry. Gephardt would be a very strong candidate in many states. The dynamic between him and Edwards will, in this case, be interesting. They're both running as populists, Edwards as a more new-democrat one. Which one will voters prefer? Edwards or Gephardt, and if they're divided, will Kerry be the nominee? That's certainly possible. But it's also very possible that in a 3-man contest, Gephardt will come out on top. He can appeal to many culturally-conservative areas, like Edwards, and he has more experience, which could have appeal. However, if they prefer Edwards as a new face, then he could benefit.

Of course, if Lieberman or Graham emerges as the survivor of SC, then the dynamics are different. You get a moderate-liberal (Kerry), and economic-liberal (Gephardt), and a centrist. Gephardt again has a strong chance here, but so does Kerry. So it could well, in this case, come down to Gephardt v. Kerry

They're all good to me. Of course, Kerry is numero uno by far. Not that the others are bad, it's just that he's that good.

'nuff said.

My gut tells me that Gephardt doesn't have a prayer. He was in the leadership for so long -- and honestly, it can only be described as 'failed leadership'. And maybe it is just my perception but he seems to lack in the charisma department... of course 90% of the time I remember hearing him speak he was recounting another round lost to the Republicans... hard to sound charismatic when your message is 'We were screwed again.'

Muhammed Ali's jewel from When We Were Kings.

Correct answer!

We don't need to nominate the Democratic version of Bob Dole.

At least he woke up and turned against the people who were trying to oppress us, you know like the governor who wanted to streamline trials so that it was easier to convict the innocent.

I think a strong showing by Dean a solid second for instance would still be interpeted as a win for Dean. However, if Gep wins Iowa by ten points it could give him momentum.