Gep recaptures narrow lead in Iowa

A new Zogby poll had good news for Gep and not so bad news for Howard Dean. Gephardt has a one-point lead in Iowa, but in Sept Dean led by 6-points.

Here are results:
Gep: 22% (17% in sept)
Dean 21% (23% in Sept)
Kerry 9 (11% in Sept)
Edwards 7% (6% in Sept)
Clark 7% (1% in Sept)
Lieberman 5% (4% in Sept)
Kucinich 1% (2% in Sept)
everyone else under 1%

Polling involved 500 Iowa voters likely to vote.

Per Zogby: "Dean and Gep are very close among key demographic groups. Dean leads among liberals, while Gep attracts moderates. Dean leads in Western and Eastern Iowa while Gep leads in the center and has a strong lead in the larger cities. Gep leads among older votes while Dean among younger."

With Lieberman and Clark out of the equation Gep leads by 2-points 26-24%.

Gep has a strong fav/unfav rating of 75-13
Dean is at 62/11
Kerry is at 61/13
Edwards is at 51/8
Clark 25/19
Lieberman 47/32

While this is good news for Gep, it isn't all that bad for Dean. He has lost 2-points and is 1-point behind, a virtual dead heat, meanwhile everyone else is under 10% and a real race for third is brewing between Kerry and Edwards (since Clark is not going to compete in the state). Coming in third in Iowa would be encouraging for Edwards. It looks like Iowa might come down to who has the organization to gotv.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=748

The Iowa caucuses require people to actually go in, sit down, and chat for a few hours. It is a committment of time and energy and it can be a very bad night weather-wise. I wonder if younger voters that have not attended a caucus might be too intimidated to do so? Will the old folks avoid roads on a snowy night? Wierd how such variables could make the difference in a close race.

over and over many people come to meetups for Dean and many of them are young--this is on a monthly basis--By Dean leading among "younger" voters they mean under age 50.n Gep's lead is mostly with those 50 and over. I think if you are in your 30's and 40's you have a good idea of how a caucus works and what to expect. I also think we should not underestimate people in their late teens and 20's who care about what is happening in this country.

At our last meet-up we did caucus training, but I fear that many Dean supporters don't quite make it to meet-ups.

in caucuses - not such a convincing sample to make an impact (if it weren't for the media desperately rooting for Gephardt)
Iowa does vote for the winner in the general election (Gore in 2000) but never gets it right in the cauvases - because voters aren't quite represented.

For better or worse, we want our big important say in the process. NH has guaranteed first in the nation primaries so Iowa can't be first in that group. Caucuses are the only way we can be first.

the margin of error is 4.5%...and Gephardt leads by a point.

My view of this poll is that Gephardt has regained about the same level of support in Iowa which Dean has. Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman are all essentially tied as second tier candidates. This is why Lieberman and Clark have wisely chose not to spend much time in a state they cannot win. And according to the poll..Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton aren't currently factors in Iowa.