new Iowa poll results - Democratic Underground

pruner

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Thu Oct-30-03 09:19 PM
Original message

new Iowa poll results

Dean 26%
Gephardt 26%
Kerry 15%
Edwards 8%
Clark 3%
Lieberman 3%

http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2597550/detail.html

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Lefty48197

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Thu Oct-30-03 09:23 PM
Response to Original message

1. Big surprise here

Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry all trail Bush, while the UNNAMED DEMOCRAT leads Bush.

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w13rd0

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Thu Oct-30-03 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. That simply means that the supporters of various candidates...

...are refusing to "approve" other candidates for whatever reason. Unnammed democrat will be announced at the convention, and it's my hope that the supporters of all candidates turn their energy toward removing Bush from the White House.

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diplomats

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Thu Oct-30-03 09:59 PM
Response to Original message

3. I know Gore won Iowa in 2000

but wasn't it close? Just curious.

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Josh

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Thu Oct-30-03 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. VERY close -

something like 4000 votes I think. Or 6,000. Excruciatingly close, Iowa was, and the Bush team credited Gore's victory to the disclosure of Bush's DUI. Some also credit that with Gore's popular vote victory.

Iowa will not be easy to win in 2004. People forget just how close the state-by-state totals were in 2000. Gore won states like Minnesota and Wisconsin by less than 1% of the vote, I believe.

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NewYorkerfromMass

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Thu Oct-30-03 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. HUGE: Gore won New Mexico by ..... 366 votes

or less than 1 tenth of 1 percent. :scared:

and Bush won NH by a little over one percent.

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jiacinto

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Fri Oct-31-03 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #4

21. You had the Nader campaign

Nader did an all out push in those states. If you add the Nader/Gore votes together those states are more blue than red.

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Rose Siding

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Thu Oct-30-03 11:55 PM
Response to Original message

6. This isn't likely caucus goers

but likely voters. No telling how it stacks up.

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pruner

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Fri Oct-31-03 12:16 AM
Response to Original message

7. here's some additional info

The telephone survey of 400 registered Iowa Democrats who said they were likely to vote in the Jan. 19 precinct caucuses was conducted Oct. 26-28 by the polling firm Research 2000.

The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-iowa-poll,0,900580.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines

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Padraig18

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Fri Oct-31-03 05:04 AM
Response to Original message

8. That's pretty tight.

Tighter than a feline's posterior fundament.

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DJcairo

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Fri Oct-31-03 08:55 AM
Response to Original message

9. Kerry is running very strong, too

I've heard that Kerry consitantly gets about 80% on teh question of who your second choice it, which mean, in a caucus, if people are divided by Dean-Gephardt, they will move on to discussing Kerry and possibly supporting Kerry. If this is true in January, it could mean Kerry performs even better than these polls suggest. A strong showing by Kerry , whether he finishes 2nd or 3rd, would prove his campaign is far from stalled. I think this poll proves that Kerry continues to be very relevant to the primary race and that he is drawing substantial support in these early primary states.

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virtualobserver

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Fri Oct-31-03 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #9

12. now that is an optimistic view

I think that the polls prove that Kerry is slowly losing support.

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #9

14. The Iowa caucuses don't work that way...

Everyone doesn't have to end up supporting one candidate. If they support different candidates, they go to different rooms or different groups and count themselves. It's perfectly fine for there to be a division between Dean and Gephardt at a caucus site. Why would they go for their 3rd choice???

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Nicholas_J

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Fri Oct-31-03 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #9

24. n/t

Edited on Fri Oct-31-03 02:50 PM by Nicholas_J

n/t

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #24

25. You're obviously not tracking this poll...

In June, Kerry had 14, in August 16, in October 15

Over the same period Dean was 11 in June, 25 in August, and 26 now in October

Are you trying to compare apples to oranges by comparing one company's poll to another? Any seasoned poll watcher knows that's not accurate.

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RevolutionStartsNow

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Fri Oct-31-03 09:21 AM
Response to Original message

10. Gephardt has to being going crazy (Dean/Gep tie)

All those negative ads against Dean, all that railing about Medicare, and Dean is still threatening to take Iowa.

And if Dean gets the SEIU endorsement next week, that will take the wind out of his sails even more.

Also, I wonder if Edwards will move up and challenge Kerry for 3rd?

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CMT

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Fri Oct-31-03 09:58 AM
Response to Original message

11. still a horse race between Dean and Gep

Edited on Fri Oct-31-03 10:00 AM by CMT

also like the fact that against unnamed dem Bush is slightly behind, but Iowa will be a close state next year, me thinks. my feeling is in the end that Dean or Gep will be first and second and that the third place finisher will be Edwards.

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dpbrown

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Fri Oct-31-03 11:58 AM
Response to Original message

13. That's only 81% of the total, and this "iowachannel" poll shows DK

At 34%

Choice Votes Percentage of 7067 Votes
Carol Moseley Braun 152 2%
Wesley Clark 2113 30%
Howard Dean 1527 22%
John Edwards 232 3%
Dick Gephardt 138 2%
John Kerry 159 2%
Dennis Kucinich 2396 34%
Joe Lieberman 147 2%
Al Sharpton 203 3%

http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2544616/detail.html

Something's fishy about the way they skewed that poll cited by the original poster.

Kucinich: Better Ideas, Better Candidate - it's just that simple

Dan Brown
Saint Paul, Minnesota

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #13

15. It's not a real poll...it's an online poll...

And has no real scientific relevance at all...no error rate...and it shows Gephardt with 3% - that's absurd.

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dpbrown

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Fri Oct-31-03 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #15

17. Nevertheless, they should list all the candidates or show "undecided"

Otherwise, the results are suspect.

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #17

18. What makes a poll most suspect...

Is if they don't report their methodology...and the article about the poll at the beginning of this thread is very clear in its discussion of methodology.

It would be interesting to know what the rest of the candidates garnered, but I think it's fairly safe to say it was below 3%.

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dpbrown

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Fri Oct-31-03 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #18

20. With 19% unreported, I'm not sure that's a safe assumption

Although I agree with you that the methodology is important, with the framework of the questions being quite important as well.

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #20

22. What exactly would the Iowa Channel have to gain...

In lying about their own poll results? That seems to be what you're implying...

Why don't you e-mail them or call them and ask for the full results? I'm pretty confident they would give them to you. Then, if they've lied about it...come back and report that to us, because it really would be a story.

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dpbrown

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Fri Oct-31-03 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #22

28. I'm arguing for complete coverage, not that they intended to mislead

I don't understand why someone can't call for complete coverage of all the candidates, complete coverage of the full results of a poll made public by this Iowa station, and reporting on what was up with the "other" 19% left off in the reporting of that poll without being sent off to investigate some conspiracy somewhere.

There's 19% left off those results.

Whether they reported on their "methodology" or not, that's a substantial subset of the overall measurement and is in itself enough to bring into question the validity of the reported result.

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #28

31. The editor told me in my message...

They had not completed putting up all of the information. It is there now, absolutely complete, and if you look back at the previous polls, all of that information is there as well.

They put up a partial story and a few hours later added all of the results.

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dpbrown

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Fri Oct-31-03 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #31

32. Excellent, that's perfectly understandable

Thank you for following up on it.

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CMT

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Fri Oct-31-03 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #13

16. Gep at only 2% in Iowa

that sure sounds accurate.

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Padraig18

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Fri Oct-31-03 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #13

19. It's so obvious that poll has been DK-ed and WC-ed...

... I'm embarrased *for* you for even citing it as evidence... :eyes:

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bobthedrummer

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Fri Oct-31-03 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #13

23. Forget about polls

it's the vote that counts.
Vote your choice.

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 02:59 PM
Response to Original message

26. Here's the full results from the Iowa Channel...

I e-mailed and asked for it - and got a response back from the managing editor in a little over an hour! Great response!

The totals are:

Dean - 26
Gephardt - 26
Kerry - 15
Edwards - 8
Clark - 3
Lieberman - 3
Kucinich - 1
Braun - - (I guess this just means <1%)
Sharpton - -
Undecided - 18

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redqueen

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Fri Oct-31-03 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #26

27. 18%

Wow.

And the margin of error is the same as some candidate's support.

This is supposed to be helpful information how, exactly? I mean, it sure helps candidates to know how many are still waiting for someone to sweep them off their feet... but other than that?

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helleborient

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Fri Oct-31-03 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #27

30. The poll was impugned...

On the basis that the full results were not reported.

I did the grunt work - not those impugning the poll - to gather the full results.

I'm sorry you don't like the results.

I'm sorry DK's supporter just wanted to suggest something sinister on the part of the poll instead of actually doing the work to get the full results.

The editor from the TV channel was very polite and sent an additional message to let me know that the online story will report every question asked and all of the results.

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dpbrown

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Fri Oct-31-03 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #26

29. That's better

That's full reporting.

And with 18% undecided, Iowa's still an open race.

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Padraig18

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Sat Nov-01-03 02:48 PM
Response to Original message

33. Kick

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