This Looks Like a "Hinge Day" for the Markets

Not the percentage changes so much as the up-down measures:

- On the Amex, down volume is 50 times up volume!
- One the Dow, decliners lead advancers by 11-to-1!

Market Diary 
                    NYSE         Amex       Nasdaq 
Total Volume   702,846,610   54,205,470  749,431,060 
Up Volume       44,894,300    1,164,100  124,701,084 
Down Volume    655,865,560   52,156,870  620,737,614 
Advancing Issues       276           98        1,358 
Declining Issues     3,039          748        9,559 
Unchanged Issues        81           67          261 

The indexes have all broken through major support levels as well. Look at the charts on this Clearstation link, which shows the major indexes as well as industry groups:

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/diary?Section=redge&Refer=/redge.html

If it's anything like this at the end of the day, no sensible technician can remain bullish. Added to seasonality, overvaluation, and impending interest rates hikes, it looks like a long road down.

...fall before they stop trading? Is it 500 points? If so they are half way there. Correction, a third of the way there.

Last Prev Change %Change

DOW JONES COMPOSITE AVERAGE 2,860.64 2,906.21 -45.57 -1.57%
Dow Jones 30 Industrials 9,960.07 10,117.34 -157.27 -1.55%
Dow Jones 20 Transportation 2,796.71 2,846.18 -49.47 -1.74%
Dow Jones 15 Utilities 263.98 267.61 -3.63 -1.36%

The numbers are not to bad for an individual day (only 1.5% change). It's just that the markets were already oversold and sitting near support levels. You would normally expect at least a small bounce at this point.

The movement downwards seems very decisive to me. We'll see.

on the numbers coming out this week..could be a big sell off in the market with bad numbers and the fed being"forced" to raise interest rates...

there's no way they represent the cost of living. At least not any more.

trading? I thought they switched to a % once the DOW got so high several years ago.

but 1.5% used to be an every day occurence in 2000 when the markets were more volatile. I would be surprised if trading were suspended with less that a 5% drop.

Another indicator that's alarming is that the VIX, which is often used as an indicator of market sentiment, and which has been on an orderly decline for months, suddenly shot up over 10% today. That's a big move.


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Evix

there is no electronic trading allowed.

I'll only quibble with one thing.

" impending interest rates hikes"

The market has raised interest rates. From 90 day T bills to 30 year bonds rates are up as much as 1% this year. This obesession with Easy Al and his dicount/fed funds rate is a gigantic mistake. Screw Al. He doesn't control interest rates. He can influence them, with that influence dropping quickly as the term increases but the only rate he controls is the discount rate and overnight interbank Fed Funds rate.

I can understand why the public thinks he controls rates because that is what the media always says but for anyone with even a modicum of market savy, as you seem to have, believing such troubles me.

Stocks are a big deal but is is rates which are the big dog. This huge spike in rates has implications which are huge and the potential for a financial accident grows as rates continue to tick up.

Overall the rising rates spells an end to the liqidity machine which has run rampant for years, especially the last 3, and even 6. The credit binge is the biggest factor in our current 'growth'. Absent that, or a reversal spells trouble on a gigantic scale.

to be accurate I should have specified raising the Fed rates. Nevertheless, a change in the Fed rate does have a powerful effect on interest rates.

One Edit: And the big question is: how far will rates go up? A half-percent change is nothing. But usually they come in groups.