Demand For Oil Rising Faster Than Expected - NYT Via SMH

DESPITE four years of high prices and warnings about climate change, a new report predicts world oil demand will rise faster than previously expected over the next five years while production slips, threatening a supply crisis. In the report, the International Energy Agency, which is based in Paris and advises 26 industrial nations, said that global oil demand would rise by an average of 2.2 per cent a year from this year to 2012, up from a forecast in February of 2 per cent annual growth from 2006 to 2011.

The share of world oil consumption represented by the developing world, including emerging industrial economies, will rise to 46 per cent of global demand by 2012 from 42 per cent, the report said. "Demand is growing and, as people become accustomed to higher prices, they are starting to return to their previous trends of high consumption," said Lawrence Eagles, head of oil market analysis at the energy agency, which is linked to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. "It's important that we have more investment and a greater emphasis on energy efficiency."

The pressures on fuel supplies are growing because booming Asian economies are using more fuel to power their manufacturing industries, including the production of growing numbers of cars. Rapid growth in petrochemicals industries and the spread of low-cost airlines are also lifting demand.

Amid these demand factors, there is a scarcity of refining plants and the personnel to operate them. Supplies are also a concern because of deteriorating output from some countries outside the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the grouping of the biggest producers.

EDIT

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/demand-for-oil-rising-faster-than-expected/2007/07/10/1183833516558.html

That's based on the "Rule of 72".

The next "term in the equation" indicates that the rate of increase is likewise increasing, at 20% per year (2.0+0.4%, 2.4+0.48%, etc.), which is very fast. In other words, the world's economy is entering a strong period of energy demand growth, probably as a result of five billion Asians, Africans, and assorted third-worlders and "po' folks" who want the same kind of bright future that we have enjoyed for nearly a century.

I fully expect the doubling time to be in the range of 20-25 years (2.8-3.5% per year growth rates) by the time the next lawfully-elected president is sworn in -- yes, even post-peak-oil.

So, what will it be -- 10,000 nukes, 50 million aerogenerators, or some combination thereof?

And when do we start pouring the cement?

--p!

At least, that's how it looks at the moment.

That's the only way this Gordian knot of ecological crisis and resource depletion will be cut.

Estamos jodidos.