Buried In The OPEC Rundown - Mexican Gains From KMZ Completely Offset By Cantarell Collapse

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OPEC said there were significant downward revisions to Mexican supply for second half of the year. Specifically, Mexico’s oil supply witnessed significant downward revisions for the third and fourth quarters of around 105,000 b/d and 80,000 b/d respectively as the impact of cautionary measures for hurricanes, sabotage to pipelines and the sharp decline in the Cantarell field completely offset additions from the KMZ complex which saw record-high production of around 608,000 b/d in mid-September.

On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s oil supply stands at 3.58 mb/d, 3.59 mb/d, 3.46 mb/d and 3.55 mb/d respectively. The annual figure stands at 3.54 mb/d representing a decline of around 147,000 b/d from 2006 and a downward revision of around 46,000 b/d from last month.

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http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=11464

How does that square with projected declines of 15%? Or were those projections for Cantarell alone?

The latest I've seen were estimates of about 25% production falloff in 18 months.