Case Western Engineering School Study - Peak Oil By 2010

EDIT

Hitherto a misty cloud hovered over and around the question of when will Peak Oil occur. Politicians, investors, and decision makers could easily point to equally credentialed experts who have opposite opinions with respect to the timing of Peak Oil. This is a recipe for paralysis, as we are witnessing right now. To avoid that, Case Western Survey challenged each and every oil expert, and oil-thoughtful person to express his individual opinion, and get himself or herself counted according to his level of relevant credentials. Those dubbed 'alarmist' and those referred to as 'Utopians' and anyone in between had the same opportunity to cast his or her vote. The message was sent out to organizations and individuals on all sides of the issue. The underlying idea is that we, the community of stakeholders, have no better source to rely on than the community of the knowledgeable as a whole. We therefore used a methodology designed specifically to process any community controversy into community consensus. And the experts of the world have spoken. Their answers are on record, documented and transparent. The BiPSA process and methodology are open, documented and subject for evaluation and critique.

The result to date puffs this misty cloud off the surface of the issue: the integrated opinion of the responding oil experts is that it is highly likely that Global Peak Oil will occur by 2010.

Is it the perfect answer? No. It's the best to date. As we speak the WEBsite (http://www.PeakOilwhen.org) is accepting another round of responses to be reported by year's end. In the next round oil experts who disagree and challenge this integrated result will have the opportunity to express their counter opinion through the current round, and convince as many fellow experts to do the same. If the opinion tilts, it would be so recorded. But this possibility should not detract from the important actionable conclusion of today: the integrated opinion of oil experts world wide is that Peak Oil will occur by 2010.

It is impossible to come up with a rational energy strategy without a firm and credible estimate as to when a package of oil alternatives will have to take over and serve as global energy supply. In other words, the Peak-Oil-When question is the gateway question for the energy crisis. Consulting the community of world experts was considered the prudent and the most reliable way to develop the required estimate. While the estimate will update itself periodically, the latest estimate should be the starting point for a rational energy plan on a global scale. Now that the results are in, the excuses for inaction are out, and all eyes are focused on the powers that be: act now!

EDIT

http://www.peakoilwhen.org/Report_oct07.pdf

both in cost and environmental impact.

every moment we wait making the investments necessary to move to cleaner energy will increase the depth of the upcoming crisis.
at some point, clean energy will become cheaper than fossil on just a monetary basis and the market will force conversion. the question is when and how bad will it get before that point.

as that presser makes them sound?