Drought Monitor Update - Week Ending 6 November 2007 - SE Drought Expanding Slightly

National Drought Summary -- November 6, 2007

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio and lower Missouri valleys: A cold front brought moderate to heavy showers to the Tennessee Valley on November 5-6, but this was otherwise a fairly dry week for the region. D4 (Exceptional Drought) continued from Alabama and northern Georgia into eastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas. Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina recorded little rain this period. Adjustments to the drought areas based on the latest streamflow and other data led to a slight progression eastward of the D4 and D2 in North Carolina, D3/D2 in southwestern Virginia, and D2/D3/D4 in western Alabama. Tropical Storm Noel dropped over an inch of rain along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula, but the rains had little impact on the levels of Lake Okeechobee, which remained about 5 feet below normal. Continued dry weather led to expansion of the D0 in southern Missouri into northern Arkansas, as well as across southern Mississippi. Farther north, dry weather led to some expansion of D0 in Indiana, but rain and snow eliminated the D1 in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

The Northeast: The remnants of Tropical Storm Noel dropped heavy rains over eastern Massachusetts on November 3, resulting in the elimination of D1/D0 over the Cape Cod area. Two to 4 inches of rain pelted Barnstable County. Amounts were not enough to end the D1 drought farther west, affecting Rhode Island, Connecticut, and parts of Massachusetts. Light to moderate precipitation ended the D1 drought in western New York. Low streamflows led to the addition of D0 dryness over central Pennsylvania, where 60-day rainfall has been less than 60 percent of normal.

The Plains: With 60-day rainfall under 50 percent of normal, D1 drought expanded slightly across southwestern North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota. Short-term dry weather also led to development of D1 in the Oklahoma Panhandle and development of D0 in southern Oklahoma and the Lower Plains of Texas. D0 also expanded southwestward from northern Louisiana into central Texas. Farmers in parts of Texas need rain to improve grain and pasture conditions, and the dry weather has raised wildfire concerns.

The West: Continued warm and dry weather lead to expansion of D0 in eastern Arizona and central New Mexico. D3 persisted over western Arizona and southern California.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico: Flooding rains struck Oahu, with rainfall amounts exceeding 7 inches for the week ending November 6. The heaviest rains struck on November 2-4. Up to 10 inches deluged the southeastern part of the island. Heavy rains also struck Lanai and Molokai, but missed the other islands. Although the wetness eliminated D1 drought from Oahu, D0 continued across part of the island due to continued long-term rainfall deficits. Year-to-date rainfall in Honolulu is only 57 percent of normal, despite over 4 inches so far this month.

Looking Ahead: Weather that could affect dry or drought areas over the next 2 weeks includes: 1) above-normal rainfall during days 6-10 (November 13-17), and days 8-14 (November 15-21), from the Southeast northward along the Atlantic coast; 2) below-normal rainfall for the Southwest and southern Plains with above-normal temperatures in much of the West during the next 2 weeks; 3) above-normal rainfall for the Northwest from the coast to Idaho.

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http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Very dangerous and if we go into Spring '08 without relief look for big problems.