Brent Crude Oil Exports Projected To Fall 17% During 2008 - Bloomberg

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Exports of Brent crude, the North Sea's benchmark grade, may decline 17 percent next year, cutting U.K. petroleum revenue as exploration companies turn to more promising regions to boost oil supply. Brent shipments from the Sullom Voe terminal in Scotland will fall to 108 cargoes of 600,000 barrels next year from 130 in 2007, according to a report prepared for a meeting of the Shetland Islands Council yesterday. Brent's decline is an indicator of U.K. oil output, which has dropped 44 percent since its 1999 peak.

``It's fairly clear we are going to see a decline henceforth in the U.K. in the absence of a significant new discovery,'' David Fyfe, principal supply analyst at the Paris- based International Energy Agency said in a telephone interview yesterday. ``That has clear implications in terms of offshore revenues.''

Production of North Sea crude blends are declining as companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. sell assets in the region to focus on larger prospects in West Africa, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caspian Sea. Output from the Brent field, one of more than 30 which feed the Brent blend, is now 50 times smaller than its peak in 1984, government data show. Brent futures prices on London's ICE Futures Europe Exchange have soared more than 50 percent this year, reaching record highs this week amid concerns global supply will not meet escalating demand. The December contract was trading at $92.68 at 3:01 p.m. London time.

After the decline in Brent shipments in 2008, exports will range from 110 cargoes in 2009 to 107 in 2011, before sinking again to 95 cargoes in 2012, according to the forecasts. That represents a 27 percent decline over five years. The report, compiled by Sullom Voe Port manager Jim Dickson, is based on data from BP Plc, the operator of the terminal, Dickson said in a telephone interview. Graham MacEwen, a BP spokesman, declined to comment, saying the company does not discuss production figures. Shell spokesman Jack Page was unavailable for immediate comment.

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