Tropical Cyclone Sidr is headed northwards towards a landfall in Bangladesh or India late this week, and may intensify into a Category 2 or higher storm. The Bay of Bengal has seen the world's deadliest tropical cyclones, and November is one of the region's most dangerous months. On November 12-13, 1970, a Category 4 cyclone struck Bangladesh, causing the greatest tropical cyclone disaster in world history. An estimated 350,000-550,000 people died when a devastating 34-foot storm surge funneled northwards through the Bay of Bengal into Bangladesh. The path of Tropical Cyclone Sidr beyond Wednesday is highly uncertain, with the NOGAPS and ECMWF models taking the storm northwards over a region of high oceanic heat content and into Bangladesh. The GFS model turns Sidr westwards, over a region of low oceanic heat content, into the east coast of India. Wind shear is about 10 knots over the storm, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next three days. Recent satellite observations suggest that Sidr is already of hurricane strength, and may be intensifying rapidly.
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