Emissions down, but lasting efforts may suffer

Emissions down, but lasting efforts may suffer

By Beth Daley, Globe Staff | January 3, 2008

Greenhouse gas emissions from Northeast power plants were about 10 percent lower than predicted during the last two years, because of milder weather and increased reliance on natural gas instead of oil.

But the decrease may have some unanticipated consequences for efforts to combat global warming: It could have the perverse effect of delaying more lasting reductions, by undercutting incentives intended to spur power plants to invest in cleaner technologies and energy efficiency.

Massachusetts and nine other Northeast states are part of a landmark pact called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative that is designed to cap power plant emissions in 2009 and then gradually reduce them by 10 percent over the next decade. Power plants will have to buy emission allowances from states for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit, with plants that emit larger amounts having to buy more allowances than cleaner ones. The number of available allowances will decrease as the overall cap is lowered, raising their price and, with hope, encouraging plants to invest in clean technologies to avoid the higher cost of polluting.

But if emissions are significantly lower than the cap, there would be less demand for allowances, driving down their price and giving power plants little financial incentive to invest in cleaner and more efficient technologies.

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