NOAA predicts above-normal '08 hurricane season

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/05/22/hurricane.season/?iref=mpstoryview

The approaching 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be above normal, with up to 16 named storms and up to five major hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday, citing climate conditions.

Hurricane Dean, a Category 5, hit Mexico and Nicaragua last year.

The outlook, issued by the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, calls for "considerable activity," with a 65 percent probability of an above-normal season, and an overall 90 percent chance the season will be normal or above, the agency said in a news release.

A "normal" season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

For 2008, NOAA said, there is a 60 to 70 percent chance of between 12 and 16 named storms.

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they should be listing their retractions and updates. Lordy I love summer but hate having to always keep an eye on the hurricane tracking map.

It used to be
xx% above normal
xx% near normal
xx% below normal



Thats the way they should issue the forecasts IMO.

Once you start to forecast number of named storms, hurricanes and majors you open yourself up to criticism if you get it wrong.

Plus, it only takes one. 1992 had seven named storms. It was a below average season. One of those seven storms was named Andrew.

So then they can brag about how accurate they are.