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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 08:45 AM
Original message
"Peak oil scenario" approaching faster than expected
"Peak oil scenario" approaching faster than expected

ABERDEEN, Scotland, May 21 (Xinhua) -- After successfully forecasting current oil prices at the first All Energy conference in 2001, John Westwood, an energy expert, said here on Wednesday that "more pain is to come" for world energy.

Speaking at the opening session of the All Energy'08, the 8th in the annual series, John Westwood, Chairman of energy analysts Douglas-Westwood, a research consultant company for international energy industries, said "there is a strengthening view that the 'peak oil scenario' is approaching much faster than any of us expected."

He said people such as Christoph De Margerie, CEO of Total, and T. Boone Pickens believe the world will never exceed its current level of production as new oil fields fail to compensate for declining ones.

The energy expert said recently published statistics suggest production from ten out of the top 13 international oil companies, including BP, Chevron, Total and Shell may have already passed it speak.

He said that in 1970 such oil companies controlled about 80 percent of world reserves whereas today that 80 percent is in the hands of national oil companies.

"However, the Saudis have put their oil campaign on hold stating that it will not increase production to 15 million barrels per day; and despite oil prices hitting new records Russian output has slumped", he said, adding that this may be another hint of the oil peak.

It would be nice if KSA and other ME producers opened their oil-soaked djellabas so we wouldn't have to guess about their status. In the absence of such transparency, we'll have to continue to infer their reserve status, production intentions and veracity. Enough of the world's major oil provinces are now in long-term decline, though, that our dependence on a such a small clutch of secretive producers means we appear to be balanced on a knife edge.
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
1. Yep
Not only KSA, but also Iran and Venezuela refuse to cooperate with IEA study of supply-side.
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Fovea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 09:24 AM
Response to Original message
2. When you won't pump more
for 133 bucks a barrel, one of two things is true.

1. You expect far higher prices within the year.
2. You can't.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. 3. Both of the above n/t
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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Not necessarily
Remember the whole idea of OPEC's quota system. (Overproduction yields lower prices. Rather than pump X barrels today, it's petter to pump them over Y years at a higher price.)

That being said, I'm afraid I agree with you.
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Fovea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. I agree with your point about price support
Further, there has been a sea change among producers that puts a scarcity premium on oil.

Severance based cost will continue to increase as a percentage of price.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. As I understand it, that's kristopher's point
Edited on Fri May-23-08 12:51 PM by GliderGuider
He seems to think producers may already be deliberately suppressing production, and that's causing the appearance of a geological peak. I don't think there's much evidence for that yet, but it's always possible given the endemic lack of transparency. The peak will be the result of a combination of factors -- price support by producers, geology, receding profitability horizons, investment shortfalls and geopolitics.
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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I think part of the price rise may be speculation
Investors are buying oil futures in the anticipation that oil prices will only continue to rise. (Seems like a decent bet.) However this too may be artificially raising the price.

I mean, looking at the big picture for a moment, the price of oil has jumped rather remarkably here. Did we all of a sudden come up against the stops?
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Possibly
While we may not have suddenly run up against the stops, oil traders may have suddenly realized we have. Until recently all us Peak Oil Cassandras were being pretty effectively marginalized in the MSM. That appears to have changed rather suddenly, and that dawning awareness is probably driving some speculative activity.
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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Yes, it does finally seem to have hit the news
"This just in! Oil supplies are limited! (Well, how about that Sandy? I had no idea!)"
"Neither did I Biff!"


Then, the story feeds on itself, till everyone "knows" that the oil is just about out and the price skyrockets, because everyone now "knows" that it's going to. (Just like everyone "knew" that stocks, real estate, baseball card & comic book values always go up.)

Another big difference between today and the 70's... I haven't noticed video of long lines at gas stations. (Maybe I'm just not watching enough TV.)
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #8
16. 2008 is the year that Kyoto GW measures were supposed to be implemented.
You probably didn't notice but the rest of the world really thinks that's a big deal.

Pop Quiz: How many countries that use 25% of the worlds oil also refused to sign onto Kyoto and take active measures to address GW?
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Fovea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Iraq is a giant suppression in production
and a spike in demand.

The war on terrah is the golden goose for oilmen everywhere.

That being said. It I think that the strategy of supply constraint is hard to marshal in a group like OPEC, whose members are as different as Saudi Arabia and Venez.

Supply constraint would not be as effective if there were no real shortfall. The increase in production is not coming from increasing the production of producing fields. Al Ghawar being damaged by production rate and the region's move to greater nuclear capacity (non military) both suggest that the producing nations understand far better than we what the future is bringing.

Iraq will never be an independent nation in the way that a springbok covered in cheetahs will not be roaming the Sarengetti tomorrow. Its only hope is the UN.

If OPEC is only profiting from the sequestration and piracy of Iraqi oil, then it would be trying to get the most oil it could sold at the highest (artificially gamed) profit posssible. The fact that the Saudis are not putting new fields into production suggests that some real concerns about supply exist.
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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. (As has been pointed out in another thread) The 70's oil shock was artificial
It was caused in part by OPEC artificially limiting supply. (So, we know they're capable of it.)
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. You're close
I'm saying that they have simply let the market slap us in the face by eliminating overproduction. The entire system has been trimmed down to match supply with demand; including the closing of dozens of refineries. All we are doing is having to pay the actual market price for a change; that approach doesn't require collusion among the producers. And it accounts for the current ill will between the US and certain producers we've always relied upon to keep supply high.

So it's actually a case of asking for a handout and being turned down and told to go buy what we need. That isn't suppression of production.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
15. Or you realize the simple reality that pumping more = lower profits, not more profits. nt
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. Simple, really
But why didn't you tell that to Thatcher and Blair? Their oil is now gone, sold at lowest price... :D
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
6. .
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 02:01 PM
Response to Original message
11. "continue to infer their reserve status"
and if we note, as Colin Campbell and others do- that "suspicious" reports of increased in reserves have occurred, it's reasonable to infer that reserves have been been overstated and act accordingly (since there's no real downside in doing so on).


Suspicious jumps in reserves reported by six OPEC members added 300 billion barrels of oil to official reserve tallies yet followed no major discovery of new fields.

The graph is from a 1998 article by Campbell & Laherrère in Scientific American, presciently titled: THE END OF CHEAP OIL.

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/subpages/sciam/End%20of%20Cheap%20Oil.html

Something to keep in mind when we hear the inevitable and pitiful cries of "but it was impossible to have foreseen this."
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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-23-08 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Yup, continue to repeat that
I'm continually amazed by the number of reasonably well-informed individuals who know nothing about this inflation of reserves.
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