Scientist says climate change isn't fueling hurricanes

Scientist says climate change isn't fueling hurricanes

By Kate Spinner

Published: Sunday, May 17, 2009 at 1:00 a.m.
Last Modified: Saturday, May 16, 2009 at 9:04 p.m.

FORT LAUDERDALE - Earth is warming, but not fueling the increase in Atlantic hurricanes this decade, according to new research by a top federal scientist.

Hurricane specialist Chris Landsea, with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, disputes theories that global warming has caused more hurricanes, in a study to be published soon in The Journal of Climate.

Since the mid-1990s, the average number of hurricanes per year has been almost double what it was during the few decades before, but about on par with hurricane activity in the early 20th century, Landsea's research shows.

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Other scientists disagree, disputing his conclusions and finding more significance in research that shows warming increases hurricane intensity.

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Trends in U.S. hurricane intensity
* Elsner, J B
jelsner@fsu.edu
Florida State University, Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32301

Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average with a 30-year trend that is related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic and elsewhere. However, the subset of U.S. land falling show no trend in the frequency of hurricanes over the past 150 years. Here we show marginally significant increases in the intensity of the strongest land affecting hurricanes as the Atlantic sea-surface temperature warms. Confounding simple trend analysis is the presence of El Nino and the North Atlantic oscillation.

3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
4546 Nearshore processes
Atmospheric Sciences
2008 Fall Meeting
http://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/SFgate/SFgate?&listenv=table&multiple=1&range=1&directget=1&application=fm08&database=%2Fdata%2Fepubs%2Fwais%2Findexes%2Ffm08%2Ffm08&maxhits=200&=%22A52C%22