Near-Term Systemic Implications of Peak Global Oil Production--Principle Mechanisms Driving Collapse

Recently, a 55 page paper called Tipping Point: Near-Term Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production (PDF warning) was published as the joint effort of two organizations: Feasta and The Risk/Resilience Network, with lead author David Korowicz. We have recently published three excerpts from that paper, which can be found at this link. This is a fourth excerpt.

6. Principle Feedback Mechanisms Driving Collapse

6.1 Introduction

We currently live within an integrated complex globalised economy. We have framed the process in which this occurs as a catastrophic bifurcation, driven by a series of reinforcing positive feedbacks (sec: 4.2). The final point will be a de-globalised (localised) economy of much reduced complexity.

We begin with the state of globalised civilisation that we argued in sec: 4.1 has been in a relatively stable dynamical state for the last century and a half or so. In its broadest outline we might say that declining energy flows reduce economic activity which further reduce energy flows. A series of increasingly severe processes are set in train which start to cause cascading collapse in major hub infrastructures and the operational fabric of the global economy. These processes have different time-scales, some could evolve over years, some could be relatively abrupt but because of coupling between them, the faster processes are likely to lead the overall collapse rate.

Much more at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6392

And you definitely haven't been hitting on the 10% that isn't.

And why would that be?

So you're implying that you know better than the Oil Drum regulars?

Please enlighten us!

That isn't "defensive" that is a fact. It's a fucking internet blogging forum and the "research" that characterizes it is typical of that venue.

Say whatever you want. We're trying to inform and educate--and if the only way you can criticize us is by calling our work garbage, then that says a lot more about you than it does about our work.

I will let the blurbage speak for itself:

TOD is a community facilitated by the Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future, a 501(C)3 charitable organization, constructed with the purpose of bringing together intelligent people to have intelligent empirically-based discussions of the future of our energy supply. Most of our roster of editors and contributors possess advanced degrees (MAs, MScs, and Ph.D.s) from many disciplines including engineering, physics, other hard sciences, the social sciences, as well as other relevant fields. Our goal is to influence the discourse about our energy future by facilitating informed and analysis-based discussion about the future of our energy supply. The Oil Drum currently averages over 30000 unique visits and 80000 unique page views per day across its network of websites.

Simply put, we must push for a better discourse about, and understanding of, energy in the world--the geopolitical, political, and social aspects of a plateauing supply with ever growing global demand will have an impact on the daily lives, especially of those who are less fortunate. Our energy future--a question that can be debated by rational people--provided they had the requisite information--needs to be debated more forthrightly and in much more detail and with much more transparency and frequency than is currently the case. Too much is at stake not to do so.

If that's garbage work, then so be it.

He has called me both a nuclear and solar (because it is the "wrong" kind of solar) shill.
I mean try understanding that one. :)

Essentially Kris knows better than everyone on the planet what the planet needs.
Fuel cells, hydrogen, CCS, limits of battery capacity, strength of nuclear containment vs garage air compressor....

it doesn't realy matter.

Kris has an opinion on everything and it is absolute and unyielding. He is right and you are wrong.
Anything that goes against it (no matter how slight) is "called out".

You can defend it as much as you want, but the output is still 90% internet garbage. Having an advanced degree doesn't mean someone has the qualifications to perform analysis that are outside of their field of expertise UNLESS they are willing to devote the equivalent time that it took to get their original advanced degree.

I'll guarantee that if those "intelligent people" were to be faced with the product of a non-specialist (with an advanced degree) trying to write in the field of specialization of those "intelligent people" 90% of the time they would consider it garbage.

:P

what a fucking joke.