Nuclear Concerns in Unstable Mideast

Nuclear Concerns in Unstable Mideast
Author:
Jonathan Pearl, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow

May 23, 2011
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Nuclear Power and Unstable Regimes

However, many of the same regimes that have signed some form of nuclear agreement with a foreign supplier (eg, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Bahrain) have already been toppled or face serious domestic threats to regime survival. Other states in the region such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which are relatively more stable, have witnessed their share of domestic protests and are increasingly concerned about their future.

...During times of domestic upheaval or war, elements of national infrastructure--from oil wells to office buildings--often become prime targets for sabotage or theft. Major nuclear facilities, including nuclear power plants, may one day become the targets of such actions. If nuclear facilities are sabotaged in some future conflict, clouds of burning oil could be replaced by highly radioactive plumes that contaminate civilian population centers and their water and food supplies.

Similarly, if major nuclear facilities are overrun in the midst of domestic chaos, the materials they house could be stolen and sold to criminal elements, thus increasing the threat of radiological or nuclear terrorism. This latter threat of theft is a major concern today with respect to Pakistan, and has been a motivating force behind nearly twenty years of U.S. efforts to secure nuclear materials and facilities in the former Soviet Union...