New Study - Multi-Meter Annual Permafrost Thaw Likely For Canada By 2050

Most of the permafrost across the Canadian North will thaw several metres deep every summer by mid-century because of global warming, warns a new study published today. And that widespread thawing would wreak havoc on northern infrastructure designed for stable permafrost conditions, including exposing the proposed $7 billion Mackenzie Valley gas pipeline to devastating landslides.

Experts say the thaw could also trigger the release of millions of tonnes of greenhouse gases from once-frozen tundra, and disrupt Arctic Ocean currents. By 2100, only the islands of the Arctic archipelago and Greenland will still harbour ground that remains frozen year-round nearly to the surface, says the study from two leading U.S. climate modellers.

McGill University professor Nigel Roulet, a Canadian pioneer in permafrost research, called the study "provocative and scary" but also consistent with recent observations of actual thawing in Russia, Alaska and the Canadian Arctic.

"This is not la-la land. We're already seeing this but it's good to have the numbers," Roulet said in an interview.

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