Why peak oil is probably about now - Democratic Underground

4dsc

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Wed Mar-01-06 10:12 PM
Original message

Why peak oil is probably about now

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/1/3402/63420

The highlights:

There's a very good chance claimed OPEC reserves are exaggerated.

World production stopped increasing in late 2004.

Decline rates of existing production are very high

And there's more..

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Dead_Parrot

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Wed Mar-01-06 10:14 PM
Response to Original message

1. Wouldn't surprise me.

20 years to late for the enviroment, but hey....

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4dsc

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Wed Mar-01-06 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. The next 20 years are going to be interesting

to say the least.. I really enjoyed the past 20 years but the next 20 are going to be a bit different I think..

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Dead_Parrot

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Wed Mar-01-06 10:20 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. I spent most of the last 20 drunk

I think that's a plan to follow through on for the next 20, to be honest. I sure as hell don't want to be sober...

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Viva_La_Revolution

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Wed Mar-01-06 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. mind if I join you?

seriously, this shit is getting scary...

I think Saudi Arabia has hit peak for sure, for a couple of reasons.

First - the water they have to pump into the wells to get any oil out and
second - they are building a new refinery. I think it's because no-one wants their sour crude, even at $5 less a barrel, so they have to refine it themselves.

then there's the civil war going on on top of Iraq's oil, and the general destabilization in ME...

maybe I'll have another...

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Dead_Parrot

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Wed Mar-01-06 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #4

8. Hey, is that tequila?

sling one this way....
:evilgrin:
I think a few big fields have peaked. That's the fun bit about peak oil: We won't know till 4 or 5 years after we've hit it.

Place your bets...

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Coastie for Truth

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Wed Mar-01-06 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. I'm 65 - so I don't know how many of the next 20 I'll make.

:hi: :beer:

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Dead_Parrot

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Wed Mar-01-06 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. Pull up a beer...

:toast:

If you're really unlucky, all of them. :evilfrown:

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Nordmadr

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Wed Mar-01-06 10:43 PM
Response to Original message

6. I believe we are plateaued right now. We may be abe to maintain

for a short time, but then...goodbye American lifestyle.

I recommend learning so good old fashioned skills, like gardening for example; and investing in some good renewable energy for your home if you've got one and can afford it.

I think within the next 3 - 5 years things will become quite unhinged.

Olafr

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rfkrfk

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Thu Mar-02-06 07:52 AM
Response to Original message

9. lots of heavy crude available

or, at least that is what I was led to believe

at 60 USD a barrel, lots of stuff is workable

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4dsc

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Thu Mar-02-06 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. If you mean "sour" crude

I understand there's a discount for so called "sour" crude but it takes special refinaries to refine it. As it contains alot of nasty chemicals..

And if you have been following along, OPEC admitted that so called sweet crude, the stuff that's easy to refine into gas and desiel, peak a couple of years ago..

We live in interesting times..

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