from electrical generation.
I have not done the calculation, but I would expect that the Mercury output from coal fired electrical plants would exceed the mercury output from discarded fluorescent bulbs. As much as I think we should do so, coal fired plants will not be shut soon, and so the consumption of electricity (no matter how it is used) results in the release of mercury into the environment. Since an incandescent bulb consumes far more electricity during use, and since fluorescent bulbs last considerably longer than incandescent bulbs, it is entirely possible that the effect of switching to fluorescents actually results in lower mercury pollution overall. It is worth noting that municipal waste, according to the graphic in the link below, accounts for 18% of the mercury emissions to the environment whereas coal plant emissions account for 33%. Since some of the municipal emissions result from discarded thermometers, switches, electrical devices, chlor-alkali related products (such as bleach), etc, as well as florescent bulbs, this suggests that the risk associated with the conservation scheme is lower than the risk of bulb disposal. To this equation we have to note that mercury is just one pollutant associated with coal. Others are the elements Uranium, thorium, radon, radium, arsenic, cadmium, lead as well as powerfully carcinogenic organic molecules such as dioxins benzofurans, and finally that most serious of pollutants, carbon dioxide.
http://www.ems.org/mercury/mercury_sources.pdfEven having been aware of the mercury risks of fluorescents for years, I have come down on the side of using these important conservation devices, and indeed use them in my own home. That said, I think we can and should do better. Communities should provide for the special disposal and recycling of spent florescent bulbs. I have repeatedly asked my town to provide for fluorescent bulb recycling, however they respond that there is absolutely no public will to engage this simple solution.
The fluorescent/incandescent question however is an excellent example of how energy decisions are not quite as simple as they seem on the surface. Nothing is a slam dunk. Careful benefit/risk assessments and critical thinking are important questions in our environmental choices.