Fire Season Forecast Goes From Bad To Worse

YAKIMA, Wash. - Months ago, national fire managers predicted the 2004 wildfire season would be a bad one in the West. Now, they're changing their forecast: It's going to be worse. With unseasonably warm temperatures in March and April, the potential loss of heavy air tankers for safety reasons and a years-long drought continuing, Western states and the federal government are facing the possibility of another devastating fire season.

"Things are much worse than they were in February," said Rick Ochoa, national fire weather program manager for the Bureau of Land Management. Years of drought have left states across the West vulnerable to extreme fire conditions. The greatest threat lies in the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies of Idaho and Montana, and the Southwest, including Southern California, where conditions are the driest.

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Predictions for the Southwest already were bad, and low humidity and hot, dry winds in recent weeks have added to the danger. Early fires already are scorching Southern California, where fire danger usually is highest in the fall when Santa Ana winds blow through. Last year, raging wildfires in Southern California killed more than 20 people. Wildfires early this month blackened thousands of acres across Southern California and destroyed 28 homes.

The entire state of Arizona and at least the western half of New Mexico are facing above-normal and even critical fire danger, according to Chuck Maxwell, fire meteorologist for the Southwest Coordination Center that serves Arizona, New Mexico and West Texas. Already, the number of acres burned in central Arizona is more than double the number burned last year at this point in the season. "We have triple-digit temperatures, double-digit wind speeds, single-digit humidity - not a very good recipe for a fire season," said Kirk Rowdabaugh, deputy state forester for Arizona."

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