Genius in statecraft is often slow to reveal itself. Genius in strategy often masquerades as folly.
Consider the case of Ariel Sharon. An opinion poll conducted ahead of the second anniversary of his devastating January 4, 2006 cerebral hemorrhage, showed that 26.8 percent of Israelis believe that Sharon's stroke was punishment for his expulsion of thousands of settlers and soldiers from the Gaza Strip less than half a year before.
The survey also showed that percentage of Israelis who believe this to be true was more than twice as high among the ultra-Orthodox. Asked whether it was correct to "connect Sharon's health conditions to his part in the disengagement and view it as a punishment," 56.6 percent of the Haredim surveyed agreed with the statement.
In time, we may come to view these numbers as especially curious, not to say cruel, in view of the following:
In erasing all traces of Israel in the Gaza Strip in the space of six days in the summer of 2006, Sharon may have guaranteed the occupation of the West Bank and Jerusalem lands captured by Israel in the space of six days in the summer of 1967.
Though he incurred the fiery wrath of the right and the religious, Sharon in disengaging from Gaza may have ensured the existence of West Bank settlements in perpetuity.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/942421.html