is planned for mid-Feb. At that point the plans will be laid for US withdrawal if Scenario One is in play:
Scenario One: The Sunnis win big, gaining up to a quarter of the assembly. The Shiite bloc fragments. The religious Shiite parties suffer significant defections by urban, educated, and more secular Shiites, who opt instead for the party led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and other, smaller parties. After the election, the Shiite bloc falls apart, as the radical faction of rebel cleric Muqtada Al Sadr goes its own way, further weakening Al Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. A two-thirds majority in parliament emerges among religious Sunnis, secular Sunnis, Allawi and the Kurds—enough to force the SCIRI-Dawa forces to come to the table and talk about a brand new constitution with a strengthened, more centralized state, a smaller role for Islamic Sharia law, and a fairer distribution of oil revenues. And finally, the parties agree to peace talks with the armed resistance, including a ceasefire and amnesty for fighters and for prisoners. Central to the deal, the new Iraqi government demands a six-month timetable for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces in Iraq. The new government takes office in late January, and, as planned, in February the Arab League convenes Phase II of the peace process that began in Cairo in mid-November, this time in Baghdad, giving international and Arab approval to the new Iraqi concord. Together, Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish police hunt down the remnants of Al Qaeda in Iraq throughout 2006.
Actually, although I support this proposal by Kucinich/Paul, I'm not sure of its point. The Iraqis will have the right as a sovereign nation to ask to leave, and in accordance with international law, we must leave. If they make a noise about it, even bush-the-asshole would have a hell of time staying. Besides, I think the republican party wants out. Wes Clark, in his op ed., pointed to the same scenario. Questioned on the blog, and we all know how much he hates time tables, he said that if this course is followed, we will be out rather quickly.
But then there is Scenario Two:
Scenario Two: For whatever reason, Sunni candidates fail to win a fair share of seats in the new parliament. The religious Shiite coalition—SCIRI, Al Dawa and the Sadrists—not only win big, but through ballot-stuffing, vote fraud, and help from Iran’s intelligence service, gain enough power to continue their grip on power. The Kurds opt to ally once again with the Shiites. The U.S. military begins to draw down its forces in Iraq, so that President Bush can win political points at home, and the Shiite militias fill the vacuum left over by the slowly dwindling U.S. force. Sunnis, marginalized politically, fail to muster enough votes to make any changed in the constitution imposed in October by the dominant Shiite-Kurd alliance; frustrated and outraged, the Sunnis support the insurgency with renewed vigor. The Kurds retreat into their northern enclave, the Shiite militia launch a brutal and bloody offensive against the Sunnis, with ethnic cleansing of southern Iraq, and Iraq slides into open civil war. Not only is the Phase II Arab League meeting never held, but the Arab world mobilizes in defense of Iraq’s Sunnis, and both Iran and Turkey are drawn into the conflict.
Again, we will be asked to leave, but this time by Iranian-leaning forces. The writer seems to think that bush will claim victory and leave before the shit hits the fan. Either way, the Iraqis can ask us leave anytime. I hope they do; I'm sick of this mess. Nevertheless, the two scenarios leave two very different Gulf regions in play. Also, I like to stay away from absolutes, and think that there are many versions of One and Two. It will be hard to tell the political reality that the Iraqi election brings, because the US news is so incredibly useless. Any political leverage we have in this situation comes from our money and the ability of our troops presence. Yes, I know that their presence also fuels the insurgency--what did we expect when we're killing Sunnis and arming the Shi'ites.
Which Scenario does the writer think most probable? Here's the link:
Iraq's Tipping Point--Dreyfuss