2006 Senate Picks...

I post this every few months, refined as the times change and updated both with my own changing opinions and with the advice offered to me by DUers when I post it. If you see any mistakes, can fill in any of the "unknowns," or just want to offer kudos for all of my hard work and worthless opinions, please feel free to reply.
Thanks,
Razor

RETIRING
MARYLAND
Sarbanes (D - Maryland)
Election -- I see it between Dem. Rep. Ben Cardin (beating out scandal-plagued Kweisi Mfume in the primary) and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele.
Result -- Some pollsters have suggested that, after beating a black man in the primary, Cardin will lose the black vote to Steele in the general election. But I think black voters are smart enough not to vote on race alone. Say hello to Senator Cardin.
(STAYS DEM)

MINNESOTA
Dayton (D - Minnesota)
Election – After beating Patty Wetterling in the primary, Amy Klobuchar (who leads Wetterling 66 to 15 in one DFL poll) takes on Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is the GOP chosen one for this field.
Result – Normally a Democratic stronghold, Minnesota feels shame and degradation after allowing Norm Coleman to win. This is a win for Dems, but it’s a close one.
(STAYS DEM)

NEW JERSEY
Corzine (D - New Jersey)
Election -- Corzine beat Forrester in this year's election to become governor of New Jersey, leaving his chosen successor, new Senator Robert Menendez, to run against state senator Tom Kean.
Result -- Tough call. The Democrats’ closest race, in terms of those races where they’re trying to hold onto their own seats. But look to Menendez to pull it off.
(STAYS DEM)

TENNESSEE
Frist (R - Tennessee)
Election -- The catkiller steps out to go for the Big Brass Ring (a.k.a. The White House), and (after a primary against Jesus freak Van Hillary and more-moderate Bob Corker) paleo-con Ed Bryant goes toe-to-toe with Harold Ford, Jr., a moderate (read: conservative) Democrat.
Result -- The Fords are a household name in Tennessee. And this one will be the first black man elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

VERMONT
Jeffords (I - Vermont)
Election -- The Dems defer to Independent candidate Bernie Sanders. The GOP throws up Gregory Parke and cries like a little girl.
Result -- Vermont Loves Bernie. Nuff said.
(STAYS INDEPENDENT)


SHOULD BE RETIRING
HAWAII
Akaka (D - Hawaii)
Election -- Akaka (age at election: 82) vs. ?
Result -- Akaka should step down, as Hawaii is slowly becoming Republican and we should get a young incumbent in while we can. But at least Akaka is a shoe-in.
(STAYS DEM)

INDIANA
Lugar (R - Indiana)
Election -- Lugar (age at election: 74) vs. unknown.
Result – This is the “Kohl” race of the Republican side. Like Kohl, Lugar could be vulnerable — he has sided unquestioningly with some of the president’s most unpopular decisions. But the Democrats have yet to find a good candidate. So, Lugar’s got it made.
(STAYS GOP)

MASSACHUSETTS
Kennedy (D - Massachusetts)
Election -- Kennedy (age at election: 74) vs. some poor sap, probably Kenneth Chase (ever heard of him? Neither have I.)
Result -- Mitt Romney might run when Kennedy retires, if he doesn’t take a shot at the White House. For now, Kennedy’s untouchable.
(STAYS DEM)

WEST VIRGINIA
Byrd (D - W. Va.)
Election -- Byrd (age at election: 88) vs. Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (after a primary against Hiram Lewis)
Result – While I generally feel that anyone who is going to hit age 90 in their next term should probably retire and start on the requisite memoir, Byrd is nevertheless a sacred cow in West Virginia.
(STAYS DEM)


ELECTIONS
ARIZONA
Kyl (R - Arizona)
Election -- Kyl vs. former Arizona party chair Jim Pederson
Result – Despite its reputation as a swing state and Kyl’s conservative voting record, he remains popular. Unless the Dems can re-brand him as an archconservative of the neo-con, corporo-fascist variety, he’s in.
(STAYS GOP)

CALIFORNIA
Feinstein (D - California)
Election -- Feinstein vs. unknown. Probably some GOP guy you last heard of racing against Ah-nold (McClintock, Issa, etc.).
Result – Given California’s Democratic trend and the highly conservative makeup of its Republican Party (which therefore will likely vote for a totally unelectable opponent in the primary), Feinstein is the HUGE favorite.
(STAYS DEM)

CONNECTICUT
Lieberman (D - Connecticut)
Election -- Lieberman vs. unknown. Maybe ex-Gov./ex.-Sen. Lowell Weicker.
Result – Despite being extremely unpopular among the left, Lieberman remains popular in his home state – enough so that the GOP will have problems without a strong candidate. And with the implosion of the Connecticut GOP following the removal of Conn.’s governor, they don’t have one.
(STAYS DEM)

DELAWARE
Carper (D - Delaware)
Election -- Carper vs. unknown. Possibly ’02 candidate Colin Bonini.
Result – After Republican rep. Mike Castle announced he wouldn’t run, this seat was all but guaranteed for Carper.
(STAYS DEM)

FLORIDA
Nelson (D - Florida)
Election -- Nelson vs. (after a primary against Charlie Crist or Tom Gallagher) Katherine "Cruella deVille" Harris
Result – Much of the state – not just in the left, but also among independents and moderates -- sees Harris as nothing but a thoughtless GOP apparatchik who fixed the 2000 election. Nelson wins.
(STAYS DEM)

MAINE
Snowe (R - Maine)
Election -- Snowe vs. state AG Rowe.
Result -- While Snowe vs. Rowe sounds funny, it ain't for us. It's the old moderate story. If she wins the primary, she's in. As for retirement rumors, don’t count on it.
(STAYS GOP)

MICHIGAN
Stabenow (D - Michigan)
Election -- Stabenow vs. (after a nasty, drawn-out primary against Nick Smith) token black conservative Keith Butler, whom the GOP hopes will siphon off black votes.
Result – As in Nebraska, the top-tier candidates (in this case, folks like representatives Candice Miller and Joe Rogers) have ruled-out a run against Stabenow. That means that, despite an extremely tight 2000 election, she’s in much better shape this time around.
(STAYS DEM)

MISSISSIPPI
Lott (R - Mississippi)
Election -- Trent Lott vs. Erik Fleming
Result -- ha ha ha ha! Why are you even hoping? It's Lott by a mile.
(STAYS GOP)

MISSOURI
Talent (R - Missouri)
Election -- Talent vs. state auditor Claire McCaskill
Results – VERY tight race, but Talent will pull it off in the end. This has the potential to be the tightest race of the year, though, so it’s really anybody’s game.
(STAYS GOP)

MONTANA
Burns (R - Montana)
Election -- Burns vs. (after a long primary against state auditor John Morrison) state Senate president Jon Tester
Result -- The Dems took over both state houses and the governorship in the last couple of years. 73-year-old Burns is a fossil, and by election time, he’ll be drowning in the Jack Abramhoff scandal. Tester is young, with plenty of ideas. He wins.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

NEBRASKA
Nelson (D - Nebraska)
Election -- Nelson vs. (after a primary against former state party chair David Kramer) former Attorney General Don Stenberg
Result – Stenberg is, at best, a third-string candidate. Governor Mike Johanns was named Agriculture Secretary, and former football coach and current congressman Tom Osbourne backed out – foolishly, as he probably could have won. Additionally, Nelson beat Stenberg pretty handily in 2000. He'll beat him again in 2006.
(STAYS DEM)

NEW MEXICO
Bingaman (D - New Mexico)
Election -- Bingaman vs. Rep. Heather Wilson.
Result – Though Wilson still hasn’t committed, she’s the likely candidate at this point. It’ll be a tough battle, but Bing will pull it out.
(STAYS DEM)

NEW YORK
Clinton (D - New York)
Election -- Clinton vs. Westchester County District Attorney Jeanne Pirro
Result -- Only in their wet dreams does the GOP beat Hillary
(STAYS DEM)

NORTH DAKOTA
Conrad (D - North Dakota)
Election -- Conrad vs. unknown.
Result -- Conrad has played it safe, playing moderate as best he can. He'll get payback for that by winning re-election. Unlike Lieberman, there's very little liberal base in North Dakota to try running a lib candidate against him. And besides, even if that candidate won, it would just mean a beating from the GOP. In this case, moderation pays. That, and the fact that top-tier GOP candidate John Hoeven has said he won’t run.
(STAYS DEM)

OHIO
DeWine (R - Ohio)
Election -- DeWine vs. Paul Hackett (after a nasty primary against Sherrod Brown)
Result – DeWine ranks 94th out of the 100 Senators in popularity in home state. His approval is well below 50%. The Ohio GOP is in disarray after the scandals of Governor Taft and the near-defeat of Rep. Schmidt by Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, plus the crushing defeat of DeWine’s son and the upcoming Abramhoff-related scandal of Bob Ney. Hackett steps up, and DeWine gets stomped.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

PENNSYLVANIA
Santorum (R - Pennsylvania)
Election -- Santorum vs. state treasurer Bob Casey
Result -- In a moderate, mostly blue state like Pennsylvania, Santorum should've kept his religio-whacko views out of the headlines. Casey is a pro-life Democrat, very middle of the road. It’s exactly what the Dems needed – a sane man to highlight Santorum’s insanity.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

RHODE ISLAND
Chafee (R - Rhode Island)
Election -- Chafee vs. (after a primary against Secretary of State Matt Brown) state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.
Result -- With a name like Whitehouse, he’s just gotta win. Chafee has drawn Republican ire for straying from the true faith, even raising the possibility of switching parties in 2004. With the GOP abandoning him, and with Rhode Island’s heavily Democratic population, the popular Whitehouse goes in for the upset. There’s even the outside chance that conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey will beat Chafee in the primaries. If that happens, this turns into a slaughterhouse as moderates flee the GOP.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

TEXAS
Hutchinson (R - Texas)
Election -- Hutchison vs. Houston attorney Barbara Radnofsky
Result -- Dude, it's Texas.
(STAYS GOP)

UTAH
Hatch (R - Utah)
Election -- Hatch vs. Pete Ashdown
Result -- Popular Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson has refused to go against Hatch, leaving Ashdown to be crushed. Look for Matheson to try a run after Hatch retires, but for now, Hatch wins.
(STAYS GOP)

VIRGINIA
Allen (R - Virginia)
Election -- Allen vs. unknown. Possibly James Webb.
Result – The Dems could easily take this one, if only Governor Mark Warner would throw his hat in the ring. Instead, he seems to have his eye on a bid for the White House. It’s a shame, because he might have been the one to give the Dems a majority in the Senate.
(STAYS GOP)

WASHINGTON
Cantwell (D - Washington)
Election -- Cantwell vs. Safeco CEO Mike McGavick
Result – Despite her close win in 2000, polls show Cantwell leading McGavick by double digits. Nuff said.
(STAYS DEM)

WISCONSIN
Kohl (D - Wisconsin)
Election -- Kohl vs. unknown. Possibly Robert Lorge.
Result – Early speculation postulated that Sec. Tommy Thompson might make a run, but that ain’t happening. Nor have other potential candidates, such as Rep. Paul Ryan, stepped forward. Looks like Kohl will coast, simply through lack of real competition.
(STAYS DEM)

WYOMING
Thomas (R - Wyoming)
Election -- Thomas vs. unknown.
Election -- To paraphrase my Texas thing -- Dude, it's Wyoming.
(STAYS GOP)


Final: The Dems pick up 5 seats, making the Senate 50 GOP, 49 Dems, and 1 Independent.
Which means another GOP majority. The Independent – Sanders – caucuses with the Dems, and Vice President Cheney breaks the tie, giving it to the GOP.
If McCaskill would win in Missouri, or if Warner would run in Virginia, we could even pull a majority, assuming everything I have here turns our to be correct.

Even if the Democrats had a good candidate, it would require massive $$$ and some serious mudslinging to bring him down, and the DNC really doesn't give two shits about the state.

I get the feeling with him. I wonder what type of chance he has. Now days to be the republican presidential nominee it seems you have to be like Bush.
Which is quite sad. I don't think Romney would be a Senator.

Looks like it's going to be a close one. I wonder who is the most vulnerable, to swing things our way in the end?

http://www.cafepress.com/scarebaby/658010

Lott is not a lock to run for reelection in Mississippi. Some members of his family are pressuring the 64 year old to hang it up and come home to lick the wounds of Katrina and strengthen the family ties to the gulf coast. If he does not run there are some potentially significant dems to seek the post. The current and former states attorneys general and possibly even State Rep Gene Taylor. Keep MS on your radar screen and thanks for your service relative to this issue.

Jim Pederson Vs Jon Kyle?

Right under the bold ELECTIONS

I call that one for Kyl, unfortunately. Polls from October and November show Kyl with a 2-1 lead. Even this far out, that's practically insurmountable. Of course, anything is possible.

I think you're too optimistic in Tennessee, and NJ makes me nervous with Kean Jr. running. Also, for some reason, Michigan makes me nervous too.

Thanks, again.

His uncle, a state senator, was recently arrested for taking bribes.

The only seat I see switching right now is PA.

The other canidate Kurita seems to be doing pretty good too. I think she would have a better shot than Ford. Ford has the name baggage and things like that from his uncle.

I only ask because I've been hearing this sort of critique from people in other areas of the nation, whose only real familiarty with the Ford name is the uncle's recent legal woes and Jr.'s candidacy. But from people in the state, it's a slightly different story -- at least, from most of what I've seen so far.

world. the state really does have three very strong "divisions" that are actually called the Grand Divisions of Tennessee.

East Tennessee - Smoky Mountains, Appalachia, mountain heritage, very Republican, low percentage of minorities.
Central Tennessee - Cumberland Plateau, farming, state capitol, was Democratic but now can go either way.
West Tennessee - Very southern, plantation heritage near Memphis, has been very Democratic, higher percentage of minorities.

These three are quite different, they might be different states since their cultures and heritage are so different.

People on this side of the state aren't connecting Ford and his uncle because that's more of a West Tennessee thing.

And, in West Tennessee, people defend the Fords.

I don't see it having many negatives at all.

The lastest polls show Tennesseans aren't connecting the two.

I'd love to see Talent get the boot....and I'm not as nervous as you are about Kean in NJ. I don't think he'll appeal to the hard core crazies in the state, and he can't win without them.

While Warner is very popular, its by no means a given that he could beat Allen in Virginia. Allen knocked off Chuck Robb in 2000 with around 52 percent of the vote. A year later, Warner got about the same percentage in his run for governor. If Warner jumped in against Allen, it would be a toss-up race.

onenote

I'll change "could easily win this one" to "could win this one."

I don't mean to say that Warner is a definite win if he ran against Allen. But I will say that Warner was our best chance here. Without him, there is no chance of beating Allen. And a win in VA would be a HUGE leap in the possibility of us taking back the Senate in 2006. But I'm not bitter. Not at all.


(DAMN YOU WARNER!!!! DAMN YOU!!!!!! :cry: )

:evilgrin:

but it would be a bruising, expensive campaign, so I suspect he's staying out to keep his 2008 options open. Its unfortuanate that there is no one else that seems to have a shot against Allen.

onenote

Right now our only candidates are an unknown lawyer and an organic farmer. The Democratic party's focus is going to be on retaining the governor's office (no easy task) and holding onto our one vote majority in the House. At this point Snowe could drop out of the race and still win...

Pete Ricketts has the inside track on the nomination rather than Don Stenberg who defines 'also-ran'. I think he has a chance of beating Nelson, but my money is still on Ben.

edited to tell everyone Pete Ricketts is the founder of Ameritrade so that no one has to wonder who the hell Pete Ricketts is.

And revise my stuff if it looks like Pete's the man. From his Web site, he appears to be a current VP and former COO of Ameritrade, not its founder. He also seems to have a rather duplicitous campaign commercial (http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/ Scroll down to "Pete Ricketts Deceptive Commercial").

In any case, he appears to be leading Kramer by about 8 points and Stenberg by about 4 in most polls I can find.

On edit: In any case, it probably doesn't matter. The November Rasmussen polls have Nelson winning 52 to 29 against Ricketts, 57 to 25 again Kramer. They don't even mention Stenberg.

to appeal to black dems to "not pass up a chance to send a black man to the Senate"

...that's for sure. Thing is, which his faux-white accent (that can't be the one he was born with), and general phoniness, I can't see too many African-Americans falling for his Richard Pryor ripoff schtick. They'll say, "We knew Richard Pryor. Richard Pryor was a friend of ours. You, sir, are no Richard Pryor." In short, I feel confident that MD blacks know an Uncle Tom when they see one.

he doesn't speak in Ebonics doesn't mean he's faking it.

I disagree with his politics but I don't agree with your characterization of proper speaking as a "white accent".

I like to think that black voters are smart enough to vote on the issues, not purely on race. And, in fact, history bears out what I'm saying -- Black Republicans do not necessarily get the black vote. Hell, just look at Alan Keyes.

so black voters did not have to vote repug to vote black.

having racist imbeciles like Malkin and the Washington Times play up the phony "oreo" incident....

This is a close one but we will pull it out unless Mfume wins the primary. Steele is ahead of Mfume in polls (I know, I know the election is a light year from now). We only have a chance with Mfume if Steele is injured by the oreo cookies he is being pelting with and is forced to pull out.

We aren't going to get this sea change until the people in power on the left focus on the media and vote security. It's still being minimized in terms of priority.

I agree that paperless electronic voting coul be a serious issue, but if the GOP is, in fact, tampering with the vote of a widespread scale, then any discussion of the senate races is meaningless anyway.

So, I should put in my OP the caveat that this assumes there is no large-scale vote tampering.

Jim Talent is one of them who needs to go the most in '06! That little nerd will be right behind Santorum in angling for a leadership position.

I did say this is a very close race. But the polls right now have it as a tie, given the margin of error, and so I'm leaning toward the incumbent. Of course, I hope I'm wrong, and as the election gets closer, this could certainly change. :hi:

Crist and Gallagher are running for Governor not Senate in Florida

Obviously, I wrote that a while back and neglected to change it -- given that I'm a Floridian, it's doubly embarrassing.

I see Penn. and Santorum winning. It's the only state that I disagree with the original posting.

Michigan is iffy. A lot of people are afraid of losing their jobs and don't see any help coming to the state from Washington. Even if it's unfair, some people will think a change is needed in order to get some help/action.

and speeches.

He's leaving his conservativeness behind. I'm surprised with his latest rants against corporatism and in holding Bush's feet to the fire to change course in Iraq that the DLC hasn't made him burn his DLC card, yet. :7

But, in response to your prediction: I HOPE Ford wins Tennessee (and I hope the moderate Republicans, disgusted with the deficit, stay at home during the primaries so Jesus-freak Van Hilleary wins. Ford would win in a rout with Jesus freak on the other side. ;) )

so Mississippi is not necessarily a safe Republican seat.

And if former AG Mike Moore runs, it would create another pickup opportunity.

And see what the outcome of the Hawaii Governor race is in 2006. They have a republican in there now but from what I've seen, she's none to popular. If we can pick off that seat back into democratic hands, Akaka steps down sometime in 2007-8 and is replaced but the heir apparent to his seat.

I think Missouri is fed up with many of their republican politicians and not only will Talent go down but so will their republican governor.

Reason why I think Missouri is a better bet than Ohio even with DeWine's & The republican parties vast unpopularity in that state?

Ohio has Kenneth Blackwell & Diebold. And since Blackwell is now running for governor you better believe he's got the machines setup to deliver him and DeWine a narrow victory.