We need 15 Congressional Seats for majority - where are we getting them?

Current House Breakdown:

232 Republicans**
202 Democrats
1 Independent who votes Democrat
_____________________________
435 Members of the House

(**There is actually a vacant seat opened from Cunningham's retirement but for now let's keep it in the Republican side. If we can win that seat, it'll be a plus for us)

In a nutshell we need 10 brand new democratic seats AND we need to hold on to the seats we have. 15 seats would give us the majority and that means Pelosi in charge and Waxman the chairman of Government Reform committee (think if the reforming that man could do!) Conyers would have free reign to impeach & censure his heart out and Pelosi would insist that Murtha introduce the legislation to set the timetable for pullout.

Of course no guarantee of success, we still have the senate and of course the chimp to contend with. But it'll be a great start!

So my question is this - where are we going to get 15 brand new seats especially knowing that there are only about 30-40 seats that are actually competitive.

I'm thinking we can pick up 2 in Pennsylvania. We have strong contenders running against Jim Gerlach and Mike Fitzpatrick who are both ripe for the pickings. I'm also thinking that we could possible get some back in Texas with the redistricting fiasco & Tom Delay indictment.

Where else? What seats are held by republicans that could be taken by a democrat?

that may take down a few more repukes, and not just DeLay. I think that a Dem might have a chance in those districts.

What I hope DU does is highlight those House races where we have a chance so those of us who live in either safe or hopeless districts can maybe lend our support to those races.

well 4 of them are repuke held, I have Schwartz in there because I'm a fan of hers.

getting indicted or retiring to spend more time with the family.

John Courage beats Lamar Smith in 21
Nick Lampson beats Tom DeLay in 22

back to what was originally done in 2001?

Doing that might bring back all 6 of those lost seats

Not much chance redistricting would be overturned before the primary on March 2, which will lock in districts for this election cycle. Then, even if it is overturned, I can see a case being made against reverting to the 2001 map, since that was based on 2000 census data, which would arguably be long out of date. And I sure wouldn't trust the repub-dominated legislature to draw a new map that would be any friendlier to us.

Anyway, taking out Lamar Smith really relies on the current district. He used to have a very rural district, plus a chunk of San Antonio. In his current district though a plurality of the voters are actually in Austin... and we think that makes him vulnerable.

Francine Busby is a good candidate, billing herself as a moderate, and will run a hard anti-corruption campaign. They say the district is trending Democratic - but who knows.... Too early to tell.

then it'll be 14, provided that the winner can hold on after the special election.

I have no problems with a moderate running in a district to help convert it over to ourside. Chris Carney (running in PA-10) is a moderate but anything less wouldn't not be able to unseat Adulterer/Mistress Beater Don Sherwood. PA-10 is extremely conservative and telling people you're a liberal is very much frowned upon!

It may be possible to win if there is a right-leaning independent in the race in a general election. Busby would be quite lucky to break 40%.

When you have an overtly conservative area, even the crooks can't take away the seat from their party. I'm hoping that Chris Carney can have some success in PA-10 against that Adulterer/Mistress Beater Don Sherwood but it's so fricking conservative there that sometimes I think it's just a pipe dream to consider a democratic pickup.

But you're right - in those cases you really do need a moderate to run strong

Maybe three, and if Fat Denny goes down with Tommy the Hammer, four.

after her Murtha-bashing ...

special election? That would be sweet.

I almost wish he would run again for that seat because I just know he would win. I've read where Sherrod Brown is definitely a progressive voter and would do well against DeWine in the Senate

And I think she is up for re-election again (isn't everyone in the House up, regardless of when they took their seat)?

:D

But he was no help to people along the Delaware river during the flooding last Spring and voted against Katrina aid...we need to wallop him withthat.

Ney (OH-18)
Doolittle (CA-4)

I don't know if these districts are even feasible, though...

And Melissa Hart although all I know is she's Western PA. Gerlach is almost a definately Democrat pickup because Lois Murphy is running against him again and she came very close to beating him in 2004. They've already starting running Gerlach/Delay ads in the region to help point out that Gerlach is in deep with the mess. I think they're doing the same in Hart's district too!

:shrug:

I would be happy with another Independent if they're like Bernie Sanders and will vote along our party lines for leadership

chance of loosing his seat. I say this even though I voted for the guy, there are a lot of Democrats that voted for the man that are getting pissed off at him over the drilling for oil.

Just wondering ;-)

As I see the House picture, we'll probably get about half the seats we need- 6 to 8- out of the corridor from Portland (Maine) to south of Philadelpha.

The seats crucial to House majority will largely come out of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest- Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, maybe Illinois or Indiana or Ohio and western Pennsylvania. A few more seats in southern Florida, northern Virginia, California, and the Southwest are possible but more difficult. As for the South proper, I think the GOP will hang on to the swing seats there next year on a last hope or benefit of the doubt of their voters, and lose them starting in '08.

there's talk about him opposing melissa hart and personally this is the best chance to get Hart out in PA.

im pretty confident that casey will beat santorum in PA. people are seeing through santorum's flip flops and casey is starting to get the approval of people who voted for his father which is a great situation for Bob Jr. to be in.

although Klink is one of those Western PA 'Casey' democrats that could take on a district like Harts.

I know he left the seat when he ran against Santorum, but didn't he have a different congressional seat than her at one time. Of course PA congressional districting in PA is so fucked up!

from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. I have also heard from some sources that Klink is alot more serious about running against Hart than he was leading in the paper.

what gives Klink a great chance of beating Hart, is that people are already familiar with him. he had a tough time in the eastern side of the state against Santorum from what i can remember, but with a democrat governor from Philly hopefully endorsing and helping out someone like Klink over there, he already would have the western side of the state locked up becaue he is well known, mainly from being a news caster in Pittsburgh for alot fo years.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05344/620281.stm

Mike Castle is like this beloved grandfather that has opponents and still wins by like 30-40points. He is the most beloved politician in the state of Delaware from either party.

Sure, it seems a little hypocritical of me to look elsewhere and not at home but then my mentality is I'm a 30 minute drive away from real races where we have a chance of winning. If only we could get enough more people to move to Delaware so we could split the state into 2 congressional races. Then we could get a pickup in the Northern part of the state

On edit note: He is at least a moderate if not sometimes left leaning republican. He helped bring the new inititive for federal funding for STem Cell to the house floor this year. I still won't vote for him but my time & money is better spent elsewhere like those seats around the Philly region

But Popular Mike has been casting an awful lot of votes for DeLay & Co lately. I'd prefer to see Delaware voters give him 53% rather 83% as his reward.

...maybe give Lois Murphy a 52-48 win over incumbant Gerlach.

A win is a win whether it's 83% or 53%. Castle is a tough cookie to beat because he's just so beloved in this state (he also served as governor for 2 terms and swears he would never run against his friends Biden or Carper). I'm not defending him, I'm just looking to where I could be of most use and in Delaware I'm not. I want to win the House and there are just too man hot races right over the border in Pennsylvania that need all the help they can get.

But don't worry, I'm not voting for Castle - he is a republican

it on a regular basis. It informally collects data from all over the country.

VA-02 :hi:

did a Biology class trip there and had a blast but it's a beautiful region.

I have two Iraqi veterans running in my sig-line (pa-7 & 8)

Ashe (or Kellam) could definitely knock her off. I give us a better than 50/50 chance. Other slim but not impossible chances for pickup are Virginia's 5th (Virgil Goode), 7th (Eric Cantor), and 11th (Tom Davis). All three are serious Assclowns who need to go down but I give us 2:1 against for picking up any of these seats. Jo Ann Davis (R-1st) has a decent challenger too but Im not familiar with her situtaion. I think we are likely to pick up one (the 2nd), MAYBE 2 here in VA.

Overall I say we have even odds on taking back the House. It all depends on how we run the campaign. We need a strong, progressive message focusing on jobs, taxes, and Iraq. Screw this centrist bullshit - people want politicians with strong ideals who will defend them, popular or not. On every issue we can hammer away with facts and if we dont let up we CAN and WILL take back the House.

Pombo is tied to Abromoff and a poorly funded Dem got around 42 percent last time. This seat borders the SF Bay Area and includes some moderate areas. Pombo is probably too far right for this district. It looks like the Dems may be targetting this race. We don't have a great candidate, though.

We could be seeing a lot of open seats and special elections way before the proper mid-terms :popcorn:

I don't know if Elton Gallegly is vulnerable, but the Democratic Central Committee in his district (Ventura, California) was in disarray over his opponent the last I heard. The brouhaha made the Santa Barbara News-Press and everything.

Brett Wagner, Gallegly's opponent, ran against him last time and lost but is already running again. When I met him I thought he looked good -- lots better than Gallegly, who is anti-choice, right-wing, votes 98% Repub party line, and all the rest. Brett (whose mailing list I'm on) is an out gay man who claims that the Central Committee asked him to drop out and let someone else run instead; he believes this was due to homophobia.

I don't know where the controversy stands now, but it sure doesn't hurt Elton Gallegly's chances of retaining his seat. Too bad all the way around.

My district has managed to remain Democratic, or at least to keep our congresswoman Lois Capps in her seat.

Hekate

Pombo is vulnerable because he is so corrupt and there is no reason why the bay area should have a wacko repub representing them. Also in California I think Doolittle is vulnerable because we have a great vet democrat running. Possibly Bono too!

I'm hopeful for him.

Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., who represents a swing congressional seat based in Albuquerque, has her toughest challenger yet. New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, the Democrats' favorite possibility, is now looking like she's running:
Here is what Madrid said about the Texas Dems that left the state to avoid Delay's redistricting "I will put out an all-points bulletin for law enforcement to be on the lookout for politicians in favor of health care for the needy and against tax cuts for the wealthy."

http://www.abqjournal.com/news/appatsy10-14-05.htm

This is excellent news. Wilson has never had a landslide reelection (in 2004, it was 54-46 against a blah Democrat). She is also a rubber-stamp Bushie representing New Mexico's tightest district. Madrid is widely considered politically strong and popular, and with an anti-Bush climate she stands a good chance of flipping this Kerry-won seat.

Expect this one to make the marquee of House races next year.