Reader Stephanie M. wrote in with an excellent question today: How low can presidential approval fall? Is there some natural lower limit below which it cannot go. At the same time, some Democratic partisans are posing the same question, though with more glee than scientific curiosity.
The short answer, of course, must be that no one knows how far President Bush's approval rating can and will fall. My view is that this is primarily a function of events, the economy, and presidential leadership success or failure. Some presidents have fallen quite low and then rebounded while others have become mired in their slumps and make only modest recoveries. Lacking a crystal ball, I have no idea what successes or failures may be forthcoming from the White House, so I'm not trying to make a prediction of the bottom of approval for the Bush presidency. Rather I'm trying to answer Stephanie's question and put the President's approval ratings in some more perspective.
First, I'm using only Gallup data in order to have comparability over time, so no CBS 34% here. At his current 38% Gallup approval, President Bush can take some (small) comfort in the fact that every president since Kennedy has fallen below 38% at some time in their presidency. Here are the low points and their dates:
Truman, 22%, 14 Feb 1952 *All time low.
Eisenhower, 48%, 1 Apr 1958
Kennedy, 56%, 17 Sep 1963
Johnson, 35%, 12 Aug 1968
Nixon, 23%., 7 Jan 1974
Carter, 28%, 2 Jul 1979
Reagan, 35%, 31 Jan 1983
Bush (GHW), 29%, 2 Aug 1992
Clinton, 37%, 6 Jun 1993
Bush (GW), 37, 13 Nov 2005
..........
The great strength of President Bush remains "the base", or Republican partisans in this case. Here he far surpasses "par", with an 82% approval rating among Republicans (as opposed to the expected rate of just 69% in the figure.) Even at his low point in November, President Bush still captured 79% support among Republicans in the Gallup poll. (CBS has a much lower estimate, 72%. The Gallup data have been quite stable in the low 80% range for some while.) So long as the base remains this loyal, it can buffer to some extent the unhappy independents. Given where independents and Democrats are at this point, the President would be in much worse shape if Republicans were not so strongly supporting him. A fall to the expected 69% or so would cost the President some 3-4% points in approval and put him at 34-35% overall support, rather than the current 38%. This is why current Republican Congressional unrest over the Dubai port company sale and other events should be a source of particular concern. Conservative displeasure with Harriet Miers' Supreme Court nomination helped drive down Republican support a little during the fall. The White House can ill afford losses here.
So, there is clearly room for more decline in Bush's approval rating. Democrats can't do much more harm but independents and especially Republicans can and both groups have some room for further decline, with Republican losses the most worrisome. By the same token, if the President won back some of the independents, he could stand to gain modestly. At about 32% of the adult population, a gain of 3% support among independents offers a 1% gain in overall standing. In point of fact, this is much of where the President's boost came in November and December. Between November 13 and December 11, Bush gained 10% approval among independents, from 28 to 38% support. Since December 11, however, independents have fallen back to their current 27% support.
more....
http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2006/03/how-low-can-approval-go.html