30%? I don't think so . . . . . . . . . a personal musing

We have Little Boots at .... what? .... 34%?

The common wisdom has been telling us his hardcore base is 30%. But didn't they once say it was 40%?

I'm sensing a fundamental shift in the country. I can honestly see his approvals going down into the upper 20s. Every time he makes a big deal speech, as he did today in Cleveland, he gets a minute boost and then a dive. The entire country is seeing the bullshit for the bullshit it is.

The Republicans I know are no longer with him, that's for sure. But then, I'm in Rockefeller Republican territory, not Dumbfuckistan. In a way, that's an even better indicator. It means the thinking Republicans have turned. The deluded will soon follow their intellectual superiors.

Does any of this translate to a Democratic victory in 06 and beyond?

I wish I felt more confident than I do. They're good at stealing shit. They're good at making gut issues into campaign issues. They have successfully painted most of our leaders as lefty loons ..... including the moderates and more conservative members of our party, like Murtha. If Murtha's a lefty, then I'm a space alien born on Alpha Centauri.

Meanwhile, all the scum on their side - Delay, Hastert, Noe, Frist, Santorum, Boehner, and the rest, are mostly untouched except by their own criminal, or insane, or criminally insane actions. Well, maybe not Delay so much. Or Santorum. But still, it seems our side gets the bad rep as loons while their side are seen as strong.

Still, all this has taken place in an atmosphere where, with a few wonderful exceptions - like Olberman - the media is not on our side and continues to mostly prop up The Boy. But the media is nothing if not profit driven. Once they calculate that the antiBush sentiment is moving into the mainstream and becoming the majority view, we may see some change in their tone. Then, my friends, its off to the races.

Are you also sensing a fundamental shift in the country's climate?

I hope so. But, I live in Portland, and practically everybody here has despised that evil little man from the get-go.

Increasingly he is pissing off conservatives: people who would not be likely to vote with us, but people who are getting angry that this president is not governing like a conservative in many respects. Even if these people don't vote Democratic they are becoming demoralized for 2006 and 2008, which means many of them will either stay home, vote third party or not get active on behalf of Republicans in elections.

just how unpopular this felon has been and for how long.

And it hits that before next Fall. A new news story/scandal is coming in torrents just about every day now; although I think we haven't reached the tipping point yet, it's going to be a political perfect storm of a biblical magnitude.

The only ones left will be the brainwashed, Neo-Con and Fundie alike.

I see this as a general trend. Elect a repug for a few terms, then a dem, then a repug, et al.

Dems have 2008 sewn up - if we don't blow it and no one is rigging it.

Now we have to ask ourselves - who will make the best president??

The fellow net loses 1% of the electorate every month. Sure, he bounces around, but he always gravitates to that place he should be on the straight line graph of time vs overall approval percentage. I see no reason it stops at any political bloc boundary. Btw, in January 2009 he will have 99 months of being President and President-elect behind him...he could be at 1% approval at that point- and lose that the next month....

Yeah, the Great Middle is sloughing off its conservative bias since LBJ's time. They got their conservatism and they got it good and hard, and now they've had enough. It's not doing them any good and they know it. When Bush disapproval gets into the mid/high-Sixties in a few months, you'll start hearing the groaning and feel the lurching as the country shifts liberal.

If you've followed the last couple of years closely, The People is pretty damn ruthless. It eats up politicians once they're past their usefulness. And what the present looks like is, say, 1994 or 1998 or 2002- the signs that the set of political rulers are done, are about to get chowed and stomped, are not really overt. But they're there. It's smart of The People to appear to be Undecided and persuadable, but fickle and moody, until the very end- and then it votes with a sledgehammer.

The crucial number is 32% or lower approval around election day. Above that number Republicans will be badly hurt but survive as a political force until '08. Below that we're talking disintegration of the GOP coalition built by Nixon- defection of their moderate wing- and collapse of a Presidency.

I wouldn't say it's over, but the fat lady is starting to warm up.

At 40% disapproval and the war continuing to go south in Iraq, you'd think Bush's disapproval ratings could climb that high, if the press continues to tell the truth.

WARNING: Watch this talk about a "shake up" in the White House. That makes it sound as though the Asst. Secretary of Defense is at fault here, or that the copiers jammed just before the Iraq invasion and that was the real problem. The White House will fire some junior staff and maybe even Rummy will waltz into the open embrace of defense contractors, and they'll try to spin it as Bush "taking initiative" to turn around his woeful performance.

Don't let anybody buy it. The President is not just incompetent. He's incompetent and following a series of policies that would be disastrous even if we were Stephen Fucking Hawking.

.... especially with the point about the media. They are in the business of telling people what they want to hear, and it won't be long before all most people want to hear is what a total cluster-fuck Iraq is and what a moron the man who took us there is.

I don't expect to hear it on Fox, but most of the remaining media outlets will turn on Bush eventually.

I do think that we'll never dent the fundie base in the polls. So Bush's bottom approval ratings are almost already reached. He may drop a few more points, but that's it. He's already almost down to the "God put him there" crowd, who wouldn't know God from the devil if someone stuck a trident in their butts.