The 50th and California

The 50th and California

Campaign calculus as complex as it gets

By Chris Reed
June 4, 2006

Two months ago, when Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray won spots in Tuesday's 50th Congressional District runoff, there were two distinct, dueling narratives on what the special election to fill the final six months of the term of disgraced, imprisoned former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham would be about.

The inside-the-Beltway set held up the race as an early, suburban California version of the national referendum coming in November on the corruption and incompetence of the GOP Congress – exemplified by veteran Republican lawmaker Cunningham – as well as the woes of the Bush White House. That Busby could get 44 percent of the vote in an 18-candidate field in the April 11 open primary in a conservative, wealthy district was touted as a strong sign that national Republicans were on track for the same sort of congressional wipeout that Democrats suffered in 1994. In San Diego, however, the animating issue in the race appeared to be illegal immigration; even Busby had nice things to say about the Minutemen. Yes, there was disgust with Cunningham, but voters were far more anxious over their sense that few people in Washington shared their anxieties over our porous borders.

Then something peculiar happened. In recent weeks – between the congressional debate over the Bush administration's intense push for “comprehensive immigration reform,” the mass Latino walkouts and rallies over a tough enforcement bill passed by the House, and Bilbray's sharp criticism of the White House's immigration prescription – the two narratives essentially merged. For both Democrats and Republicans, a vote for either Busby or Bilbray became a proxy to express discontent over the ways of Washington.

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Since illegal immigration is Issue No. 1, the more passionate voters – and thus those most likely to turn out – are going the way of hard-liner Bilbray. But Democrats have a bitterly contested gubernatorial primary to draw them to the polls, while Republicans have no exciting statewide primary race or controversial proposition to stir them to vote. It's not just the bile of both candidates' attack ads that produce migraines. The complexity of the 50th's political calculus also inspires headaches.

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Find this article at:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060604/news_lz1e4reed.html

It's quite obvious that Bilbray and the Republicans are taking a hard right tack on immigration, and are not hesitating to smear Busby over the issue. They have focused on the immigration issue to take attention away from their corrupt practices and agendas.

They are pulling out all the stops to appeal to the streaks of latent racism they believe the district voters carry. Their latest ads use the "liberal" term quite, errr, liberally, and are explicitly describing Busby as someone who will give tax money away to illegal immigrants. It will be quite sweet to have her win the district, which I think will happen, if the vote is on the up-and-up.

But that raises a concern. Our local voting precinct captain did not receive any ballots, and apparently a number of other precincts also did not receive theirs when supplies were distributed last week. Reportedly there were a shortage of ballots printed; it will be interesting to see if this ballot shortage has any effect on the vote Tuesday.