What are you watching?
I'm watching the Dem US Senate primary in Montana where John Morrison and Jon Tester seem to be in a dead heat going into the primary to determine who is going to run against the Abramoff-corrupted Republican Senator Conrad Burns, who seems certain to beat his GOP primary competition Bob Keenan.
CQ has
this on some other races:
Randy “Duke” Cunningham’s former House district north of San Diego is a wealthy, Republican stronghold. The chance that the GOP might lose that district in a special election on Tuesday, or even come close to losing it, has made the race a bellwether for Republican fortunes in the fall.
It is the only race this month where Republicans and Democrats are directly competing for votes, so both parties will comb the results for clues to the public’s mood and response to issues and strategy. Meanwhile, seven states besides California are holding primaries Tuesday — Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota — and several of the races could have broader implications on issues such as congressional ethics, the war in Iraq, immigration and the environment.
The overarching issue in the San Diego special election is Cunningham’s bribery conviction this spring. He admitted taking gifts such as Oriental rugs and a Rolls-Royce from a defense contractor. The Democratic candidate, school board member Francine Busby, has tried to extend Cunningham’s disgrace by implication to his party. GOP candidate Brian P. Bilbray, who lost his own House seat to a Democrat in 2000, has appealed to the district’s Republican instincts.
Should Busby win, Democrats will see a portent of a broader victory in November — they would need a net gain of 15 seats to recapture control of the House — while Republicans would consider it an aberration that was Cunningham’s fault. If Bilbray gets the seat, Republicans will see it as a sign that the political atmosphere is tough but survivable. And the GOP would almost certainly say that a comfortable Bilbray win means voters are OK with the status quo.
Two other contests on Tuesday will test the damage done to incumbents by questions about their conduct. Rep. Richard W. Pombo of California and Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, both Republicans, have been targeted by primary foes and Democratic challengers for their past associations with Jack Abramoff, the former lobbyist who pleaded guilty in January of conspiracy and fraud.
. . . more detail at the
link.