Let Lieberman go...

I think this may be good for us. If Lieberman does run as an independent then we can use that to bash him over the head with. How better to illustrate someone is not really a Democrat, then having him denounce and/or abandon the Democrats?

I think the primary is Lamont's to win at this point. But there are these polls showing Lieberman leading as an independent. Forget the fact, that Joe has this tendency of leading big in polls, only to witness his numbers crash down back to Earth. Forget the fact, that independents always poll two to three times better than the actual number of votes they end up receiving. Forget the fact that partisans vote in midterms and not many independents.

The reason I think Joe would lose to Lamont is because there already is a Republican in the race, and the GOP may see this race as a possible pick-up. Thus Joe and the Republican would end up undermining and splitting each others vote, and Lamont - the TRUE DEMOCRAT - would come up the middle in a Democratic state!

Strategy for Lamont:

Attack Joe on running as an independent. Drive up his negatives with Democrats and call Lieberman's leaving a betrayal to the party and the people who have supported him in the past. Once Lamont wins, we challenge the people who signed Lieberman's petition. If we can get enough people thrown off the list, maybe Joe's number will be less than the number of signatory's needed.

I think we can keep the seat and lose Lieberman in one election cycle.

But the worst possible outcome would be for Schlesinger (R) to win in the general election. A recent Quinnipiac University poll suggests that either Lieberman or Lamont would beat him if they ran as the Democratic candidate in a 2 way race. The survey predicts a big Lieberman win in a 3 way matchup with Schlesinger as the Republican (8%), Lamont as the Democrat (18%), and Lieberman as the Independent (56%).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11362.xml?ReleaseID=922

After All the Same state will Probably vote for the Republican Governor. I wonder how she rates vs. her Democratic opponents??? And it's oh so clear cut that this state would vote for a Democratic Senator, regardless of who he is. But I guess name recognition counts for nuthing?

She's pretty liberal on social issues and just happens to be very popular with Connecticut voters. Also, with Governors there's usually the sense of if it ain't broke don't fix it. Wyoming will probably overwhelmingly re-elect their Democratic Governor as will Kansas. Doesn't mean that Democrats are particularly popular in those states.

I remember when Carolyn Murphy ran and won as a Democratic candidate from New York for the House of Representatives. She was a registered Repubican but her big issue was gun control because of her husband being killed in one of those mass shoot 'em ups.

However, she never actually became a registered Democrat until around her 2nd or 3rd term.

So, if Lieberman were to decide to go the Independent route -- which I still say is highly highly unlikely -- what are the rules in Connecticut for that? Will he have to officially register as an Independent or can he remain a registered Democrat?

BTW, there is zero way that he will end up caucusing with anyone other than the Democrats even if he does go the Independent route.

It has been quite active there.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=143

I'm not qualified to answer your question but I'm sure you'll find someone there who is.

So to run as an Independent, Joe Lieberman must collect 7.5K signatures before 8/9. Most likely, he can't do that in a day, so if he wants to run as an Indie, he'll have to start before the August 8th primary. All it takes is one person asked to call a reporter, so if Joe starts collecting signatures for an Indie bid, it won't happen quietly.

If Lieberman starts collecting signatures to run as an Independent, he could quite possibly ruin his chance to win the Democratic nomination on account of resentment by Democratic voters. On the other hand, if he does not start collecting them before the primary election, and if he does not win the Democratic nomination, he will probably not be able to run in the general as an Independent.

He loses a primary, but wins a general?

Who would turn out to vote for Lieberman who didn't vote for him in the primary?

This Republican candidate must really suck.

According to that poll, if Lieberman ran as an Independent in the CT general election he would get 58% of Republican votes, 52% of Democrats, and 59% of Independents.

I think you're right, the Republican candidate must suck. But then again, all Republican candidates suck. I think the atmosphere in Connecticut is not quite that simple, though.

In a one-on-one matchup between Lieberman and the GOP candidate (Alan Schlesinger), Lieberman got 60% of the GOP vote.

and immersed himself in the accolades of his GOP buddies.

Numerically speaking, of course. At any rate, I wouldn't be so quick to send Joe to the GOP, especially if the Senate majority hangs in the balance.

Dem are a minority in CT, only 37% or so of registered voters. And a small percentage of registered Dems , the more activist, vote in primaries. Lieberman could easily win with votes from that 63% non-Dem vote and a smattering of Dems.

Joe's been in Congress for quite a few years, and although a lot of us on the left are very disappointed in his recent actions, II'm sure he has a number of Dem supporters in his State. My concern is that in Nov. the Pubs will vote for the Pub, and the Dems will be split between Lamont and Liberman, thus enabling the Pub to win the seat!

I don't live in Ct. so my opinion doesn't matter, but I want the Senate back and I'm afraid of a split vote!

If Lamont wins the Democratic Vote; and the Republican challenger bites away from Lieberman's right wing support, Lieberman would lose support from both sides.

You'll see those numbers change dramatically. Those numbers are absolutely meaningless.

Lieberman has a strong, large group of loyal supporters who will vote for him as an independent. If that happens we lose a seat in the Senate. Period.

How true is that really? I'm sure he has the loyalty of some people, but not everyone represented in that poll. A lot of the reason Lieberman does well in that poll is because:

a) he has the highest name recongition in the state.

b) the other two are not well known at all.

- If Lieberman is getting nearly 60% of the Republican vote over the Republican candidate, isn't it possible that he will begin losing support once the GOP candidate becomes better known?

- Lieberman still gets a bare majority of Democratic voters (which is consistent with his polls in the primary), but if Lamont wins the nomination, and if Democrats are offended by Lieberman's latest tactic of running as an independent, wouldn't that eat into his support as well?

- Doesn't this ultimately mean that Lieberman will lose support from both ends of the political spectrum? What would that do to his overall numbers?

If a GOPer didn't know who the Republican candidate was, they wouldn't support Lieberman instead, they'd choose "undecided/other". Lieberman's 60% support among Republicans is huge, and that number is likely to go up, not down, if Lieberman runs as an Independent.

And while Lieberman might lose more Democrats if he runs as an Independent, he'll probably pick up more Independents (which are the majority in CT).

Why would Lieberman's support among Republicans go up rather than down? After all, in a three-way race a Republican has a chance to win if it can unify its vote, since the Democratic/Independent vote will be divided between Lamont and Lieberman! Thus giving the Republicans the chance to win the seat outright.

If Lieberman wins, even as an independent, he still goes on supporting the Democrats in the Senate (so he can maintain his committee spots, etc). It makes no sense for a Republican to vote for Lieberman over their own Republican candidate. It's irrational.

60% of Republicans ARE supporting Lieberman - not other/undecided. If Lieberman loses half of that, and most of his Democratic support, his numbers will drop into the 30s (even if he maintains his solid lead among independents - if he loses that, than it's over for Lieberman - he can only play the spoiler).

If Lamont gets 70% of the Democratic vote, plus 20 to 25% of the independent vote, he will be in the 30s.

If the Republican candidate gets 60% to 70% of the Republican vote, and 20 to 25% of the independent vote, he will be in the high 20s or low 30s.

You see what i'm saying here? Suddenly the race becomes a free-for-all. Anyone can win it.

First and foremost is that even in a three-way race, Lieberman got 56% of the Republican vote. The second is that there is no strong Republican challenger, and there likely will not be one. Currently, no prominent CT Republican is interested in running for Senator. The three GOP Congressmen and Jodi Rell are all pretty much assured of their re-election, and the Senate race would be too chaotic and risky to try. So any GOP candidate that runs will be a second or third-tier candidate, like the one involved now: ex-state Sen. Alan Schlesinger (who?).

While it can generally be assumed that Republicans will vote for Republicans, that's not always the case. This is being shown in this race. Most CT Republicans are satisfied with the job that Lieberman is doing in the Senate. This is, in part, because CT Republicans are more to the center/left than other Republicans, and Lieberman is more to the center/right than other Democrats. 72% of Republicans polled said that Lieberman deserves re-election. They won't all of a sudden drop their support of him in order to vote for a nobody with an (R) next to their name.

In fact, if Lieberman runs as an Independent, his numbers might go up, for three reasons: First, to prevent Ned Lamont from winning (since there are no other viable candidates, its either Lamont or Lieberman), second, because of percieved independence from the Democratic Party, and third, with a long-shot hope of maybe Lieberman defecting to the GOP.

Finally, Lieberman would most likely agree to caucus with the Democrats in order to maintain his committee assignments... however, if Democratic organizations and other Democratic senators actively campaign against him by endorsing or supporting Lamont, he might feel spurned by the party, and go fully independent, or maybe even to the Republicans. In the Senate, personalities rule as much as positions do, and a for man that has served in the Senate for 18 years and will likely end his career in the Senate, personality is probably the dominant factor. If he feels disconnected personally from other Democrats on account of them trying to kick him out, its not hard to imagine a clean split from the party.

to me this is a fight between grass roots dems and dscc/dlc/dccc suits.

lieberman could be anybody -- but the inside powerbrokers withing the part are making moves to solidify their control.

the message to the party as a whole is that ''we know best'' -- it's not a party of the people.

that's just a huge, huge problem.

they should let the fight between lamont and lieberman play itself out fair and square -- there's real information there about what people want -- listen to them.

but i don't think that's going to happen.

there a lot of backroom players in this match-up.

the corporatist wing of the party re-asserted control and has been, in various forms, running things ever since. Their worst fear is that the rank and file: us, reclaim control over the party. Oddly, the only hope for our nation is that we do exactly that.

what concerns me is that there is an extraordinary attempt at SELLING the corporate position -- and the process of ''selling'' is a distraction.

we can't even get to the point where we talk about corporate representation within the party without burning down the house.

i always find it a musing that we can talk about corporate influence in government today{and everyone pretty much agrees} -- but we can't talk about corporate influence within the democratic party.

if he did he wouldn't have lost the electoral college 520 - 18.

You give the "corporatist's" way too much credit.

Your argument is absurd.

which is why he did quite well in the primaries, in fact beating all of his opponents.

who garnered only 18 electoral votes in 1972 represents the "rank and file", then I don't see how it follows that
a modern day takeover of the party by this group is somehow going to win an election and "save the country".

I would suggest that anyone interested in a Democratic Party that can regain control of Congress, and hopefully the
Presidency in 2008, reject your strategy.

One more time: as the clear victor in the Democratic Primaries McGovern represented the majority choice of Democrats. I said nothing about independents or republicans.

Look Bad. Who Needs Karl Rove When You Have Your Fellow Democrats????

my point is that there is a crew that wants a hierarcical approach to running the democratic party -- and very strict one at that.

we can debate endlessly about what they represent -- but one thing is certain -- they want the say so over who you vote for.
rather than taking more of your input and your activism etc and letting that build and form the party.

''democrats beat each other up'' is empty, hair on fire rhetoric that certainly doesn't serve the interest of the party -- which has always been a fairly fractuous place. and that is NOT a bad thing.

You have to picture those who vote in the GENERAL Election not from amongst your own party. The other party notices our beating each other up ---which is what it is--- and uses this information for their own campaigns. It's a complete disaster. Howard Dean should pay for this crap. I don't like dissing any Democratic candidate, because I hope that 1 or the other will win in an eventual election. But it turns out that the Candidates wind up dissing each other and help the Republicans to win. I find i'm always having to be careful what I say because I want a Democrat to win. Unfortunately the Liberals don't get the difference between a DINO and a Republican and tend to believe a DINO is just as bad. The deal is they are DINO in some respects, but not all. And the deal is that DINOs make money --sometimes millions--for Democrats. Which is necessary in winning any campaign. It really is, truly, a complete disaster. I can't go into detail here.....

or that it hasn't been argued adnauseum here and other places?

and point to part of the problem yourself -- MONEY.

and where it comes from.

not my point -- if the democratic party is going to follow a hierarchical path -- i.e. schumer and other are going to decide for everyone else who the candidates are -- then at least lets have an honest discussion about it.

at least, one too many times. Plus, he is a very hawkish supporter of the illegal Iraq war. He's crossed several lines, and MUST GO. It's really that simple.

The Republican Party. They are more obligated to Republican Policy and Help with the Republican party and Republican policy with the money they make.

republicans.

Joe's ego can't handle being ousted by the Democratic voters in CT. I believe that, in his mind, if he can't win, he'd rather have a bootlicking Republican in there to continue to support Bush's agenda.

despite his support for the war, despite the fact that the Dems of Conn. might support another as their choice, says much, doesn't it?

It's all the more reason why we must win this--and we will. Forget all the outdated polls. Connecticut residents can see the tide changing--friends and neighbors, unions and now even the media. Every minute sees another Lamont surge and another reason for optimism.

On edit: for those of you who want to play at home use http://www.blognewshub.com/uniportal.form Select liberal blogs and put Lieberman in the search box. It will report most recent posts first.

the senator turned Independent. There are other pominent Democrats who will not support an Indy Lieberman.

There will be a civil war within the CT Dem Party because Lieberman is selfish, and this war is long overdue.

to one or the other openly, if you're a candidate for gov, until the Dem Senatorial candidate is elected in the primary.

committees, elected people and volunteers on boards and commissions. It's not all about fat cats, a huge amount of support has to come from the grassroots and active Dems in the towns and cities. People are leaving Lieberman in droves.

and that's with a 24% name recognition rate. Not bad.

we lost Lieberman a long time ago. This race has become about whether the Democratic Party is a Party of/by/for the people or of/by/for the "suits", the big daddies who feel they "know what''s best" for the rest of us, and THAT happens to be that they stay in power as long as possible whether or not we think they need to be shown the door.

Lieberman doesn't give a sh*t about us, nor does Schumer, apparently. I hope the good voters of CT and NY remember this and vote accordingly when the time comes.

TC

Lieberman runs for Lieberman, not the people of CT.

DINO Joe is an insult to the Democratic Party. He is a corporatist and out-of-control hawk. He is a has been, and he must be purged from the party. Go Lamont!

He has shamed our side too many times.

be as popular as his preaching to the choir overly optimistic people tend to think. This way if he gets clobbered by the Ratpigs we have someone hanging in the wings.

is Lieberman. I'm sorry you have bought into the "Lamont support is shallow" mantra, but having Joe got Indy is a slap in the face to every Democrat in this Party and he will offend the ones who aren't already offended by him.

TC

Lieberman is an Orthodox Jew who does not carry his religion on his sleeve, does not claim to speak to god directly and does not think that what is happening between a woman and her physician is any of his, or anyone else's business.

Compare this to Casey who is running against Santorum.

Both support a war of aggression.

Lieberman is running against Ned Lamont and Lamont is being being endorsed by NARAL.

they don't control anything right now. We need everyone we can get, even if it's a dino.

Sorry to say that, but he's liked by the GOP here. Add in Independents (a not inconsiderable portion of the electorate) who'd vote for him as a known quantity... and we have the guy back again, sans the "D".

I strongly think the party should not support an independent over the party's choice. But I think Lieberman's leaving may not result in what you think it will.

is the repug runningg? I haven't even heard who it is.

Hahahaha, Lamont and Lieberman are getting all the press and a lot of people CT don't know who the repug candidate is.

State Rep. Alan Schlesinger or attorney George Streitz.

The reason why the GOP isn't putting up a strong name is, one, because Lieberman was judged too strong an incumbent for any of the Congressmen or the Governor to run against, and two, because most GOPers are happy with Lieberman and will vote for him in November.

I appreciate all of your comments.