Does Case have a shot at beating Akaka?

I don't know why this race isn't being talked about here but the last poll I saw it was very close. Any word?

Maybe we should be.

It's just that Akaka's a pretty obscure Senator and the seat is a safely Democratic whether the nominee is Case or Akaka.

Granted, I would have thought DU would be much more in arms, given that Case is very centrist compared with Akaka. Akaka hasn't done much, however.

The Hawaii establishment is firmly behind Akaka, but there's a lot of potential voters that aren't included in the establishment that could life Case to victory.

Regardless of Case's chances, its not as competitive a race as many others; heavy campaigning probably won't begin until August for the September 23rd primary. Neither Case nor Akaka have a lot of cash on hand, and fundraising for a primary battle where there's no challenger from the other party doesn't really materialize. Most people who are donating to '06 incumbents or challengers are focusing on races that might tip the balance of the Senate, and not on a race like Hawaii. So the amount of money that gets put into this race, on both sides, will be far below the national average for a Senate race, and even a competitive Senate primary. Right now, both candidates are pretty much in the "press release" phase, though there was a state convention a couple of weeks back that basically amounted to a coronation of Akaka.

So does Case have a chance? Absolutely. Akaka is still the favorite, but its really hard to gauge with any certainty what the outcome will be.

I didn't know Hawaii's primary wassn't until September 23rd. That's late!

What's interesting, though, is that while Hawaii's primary is the last in the country, the winner of the primary won't have a challenge in November, so they'll really be one of the first races concluded.

in a dead heat with Akaka. I believe it was within the MOE.

That poll actually is an internal poll-- it was paid for by Ed Case. Usually, however, if a challenger releases a poll that has their guy within the MoE, the incumbent will release their poll that shows something different. Akaka's camp confirmed that they have polling on the race, but they refused to release it, which means that it likely reflects what Case's poll says.

:)

may have sensed an opening and that's why he challenged Akaka in the first place. It's hard to say.

Case does not have the support of most of the Democrats that I know on Oahu. He may do better with the more affluent citizens of Maui.