Check out the latest numbers --- The Dems can flip the U.S. Senate

:wow:

From today's Survey USA approval poll of all 100 U.S. Senators

http://surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenatorApproval060620State.htm

A lot of bright spots here: (remember, these are job approval numbers, not election contest numbers)

Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) down 60%-36%


Mike DeWine (R-Oh.) down 49%-41%


Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) down 55%-36%


Linc Chafee (R-RI.) only up 49%-44%


Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) once thought to be vulnerable, up 49%-36%


Maria Cantwell, (D-Wa.) still up 48%-43%


Jim Talent, (R-Mo.) only up 48%-43%


Jon Kyl, (R-Ariz.) only up 45%-43%


Debbie Stabenow, (D-Mich.) up 49%-40%


A couple on the down side...

George Allen, (R-Va.) is still up 52%-35%


Robert Menendez (D-NJ.) is down 42%-41%


We Democrats only need to flip six seats to regain the US Senate, and these numbers make it look quite possible...it really looks close!

These are all important races...

Also, some wild cards...

Mark Dayton (D-Minn.), Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.), and Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) are retiring. What's happening in these races?

Did I miss anything?

Oh yeah, Bernie Sanders seems a lock to win St. James Jeffords' seat (I-Vt.)

:)

We are picking our candidate next week to challenge trent lott. Probably the longest of long shots, but you'd have to lock me up to keep me away from the voting booth.

This guy's the real deal..MKJ

http://www.winterforcongress.com/bio.asp

Ya really gotta love guys like him. Moving ahead smartly, all the while doikng service to others. A Marine turned sailor turned lawyer turned teacher.

Just wow!

Does he say why he changed from R to D? Curious, since he worked for McCain.

I see he's endorsed by the Arapaho County Dems - I used to be a member, many years ago.

wholesale corruption of the repubs in power. I didn't hear him say exactly why he switched, however, he was clear that he thinks that tenured politicians are beholden to the institution rather than their constiuents.

MKJ

But that's good news. :)

:hi: MKJ

Let us know how it turns out....

making progress.



MKJ

He does not represent the citizens of Virginia, he represents the Bush White House in the Senate. Must be nice for 1600 Pensylvania Ave to have it's own Senator when the rest of DC doesn't even have one.

He does not represent Minnesota values.

Why doesn't he represent Minnesota values?

Why will he lose? :)

...Means you've gotta know how to play HOCKEY!



~~~~~~~~~~

First, its important to remember that we not only need to win six seats, we need to not lose any of our own. That's an important thing to remember. The election can be broken up into four categories: First-Tier (vulnerable seats), Second-Tier (outside chance of an upset, but not likely), Contentious Primary (but the party will stay in power), and Third-Tier (no chance of an upset; the race is already over).

First Tier:
GOP: MO, MT, OH, PA, RI
Dem: MN, NJ

Second Tier:
GOP: AZ, TN, VA
Dem: MD, MI, NE, WA, WV

Contetious Primary:
Dem: CT, HI

Third Tier:
GOP: IN, ME, MS, NV, UT, TX, WY
Dem: CA, DE, FL, MA, NM, NY, ND, VT, WI


In order to win, we need to sweep the five vulnerable GOP seats without losing Minnesota and New Jersey PLUS we need an upset in Arizona, Tennesse, or Virginia without the GOP gaining an upset.

If we lose Minnesota or New Jersey, then we need all five vulnerable GOP seats, and two upsets from the second-tier. And if we lose Minnesota AND New Jersey, we need a clean sweep of all eight GOP seats.

There's never such a thing as a bottom line in elections, but the closest I can give you to a bottom line is that if we don't pull off a clean sweep of all seven races in the top-tier, we have a next-to-zero chance of flipping the Senate. If we can pull that sweep off, our chances will be about 50/50 for a flip.

Ask me if there's any questions you have.

Where did you get this information?

I've been blessed with my school and my work having a subscription to the National Journal, which publishes the Hotline every business day, so I read it daily. I also keep up to date with different polling groups and stay on top of the latest numbers, and I read a few blogs and local papers weekly to get a sense of how each election is shaping up.

I love the real world analysis, not partisan fluff.

Needing to sweep all the top tier seats should put it into perspective. For reference purposes, the betting line has us more than 80% underdog to regain senate control.

Still we should look at the prospect of gaining seats a major positive. Conventional wisdom post 2004 was we were playing defense this cycle in the senate. After all, we gained 5 seats from this block in 2000. Trying to net another 6, for a +11 or nearly 1/3 transfer in two cycles, is extremely unlikely.

I think the key race is Ohio. If we knock out an incumbent in a red state like that, an incumbent with low but not horrible approval numbers, it could be our year nationwide.

Mike DeWine's biggest problem in Ohio is being a Republican in Ohio, which is worse than being a Washington insider in South Dakota. Brown and the DSCC have been parading around the words "Taft-Ney-Traficant-DeWine" since January, and its worked. DeWine is one of the more independent Republican voters in the Senate, he hasn't made any big mis-steps, and voters like him personally. But he's a Republican in Ohio, which may be more than enough to send him away. I don't think there's a stronger anti-incumbent or anti-majority party sentiment than there is in Ohio.

Missouri, on the other hand, is a state that's trended more red in the last six years. Talent's a solid politician, but he's only been in office for four years, and he only barely beat Jean Carnahan (who filled her dead husband's seat for two years--remember that Mel Carnahan died before the election and still beat John Ashcroft). Besides the stem cell debate that Talent's involved in, there's nothing that should be giving Talent any troubles. McCaskill's a top-tier candidate, and has great name recognition from her previous gubernatorial campaign, but in any other year, she wouldn't have much of a chance. However, with the national political environment what it is, Talent could find himself out of a job for no other reason than being in the wrong party at the wrong time.

When we lost those senate races in 2002 -- Missouri, Georgia, New Hampshire -- I more or less conceded several terms to the newly elected senators since they were all competent and young, plus in states that were red leaning or no worse than 50/50. I'll be very surprised if we knock any of them out after one term, and that goes for Thune in South Dakota also, when his seat is up.

I don't even want to think about the other freshman senators the GOP elected in 2004. That was such a pathetic lot, primarily from the South.

on edit: Minnesota 2002 is another one I want to clear from my mind. I probably despise Coleman more than any Republican, now that DeLay is out. What do you think of our chances there? I know Al Franken has shown interest.

If Bush's numbers keep dropping, Coleman could easily find himself out of a job. I have absolutely no idea how Franken will play in MN. On one hand, comics and Hollywood types generally don't fare well in elections. On the other hand, MN elected Jesse Ventura six years ago.

As far as freshmen go, you're pretty much right on. Isakson and Chambliss won't get much of a challenge, Graham and DeMint are thriving in SC, I haven't heard anything bad about Martinez, Burr and Coburn seem secure, I have no idea how Vitter will do in four years, and Thune's doing well in South Dakota.

Like I said before, Missouri is a bellweather race because there would be no reason for Talent's defeat other than a negative GOP environment.

As far as 2008 goes, look for Mark Udall to present a strong challenge to Wayne Allard (R) in CO, if Allard doesn't retire. Susan Collins (R) in Maine pledged not to run for a third term a while ago, but she may back out. Mary Landrieu's seat will be interesting as the first post-Katrina Senate election, and she's hovering around 45% approval ratings. Frank Lautenberg didn't want to run for the Senate in 2002, and he's unpopular in the state as it is. In SD, Governor Mike Rounds may give Tim Johnson (D) a very strong challenge. John Warner and Ted Stevens may retire, though talk around Virginia is that Rep. Tom Davis will run in '08 if Warner retires.

Thanks for the last paragraph, some seats I hadn't looked at recently.

Damn, don't we ever get an easy one in South Dakota?

If we lose Ohio - governor or senate race, it'll be to fraud.

I am sending in money to Ben Cardin (he is a Maryland native and his dad was a judge), my choice, it's still iffy. The Dem primary is still a long way off. Republican opponent is Michael Steele, the darling of the RNC convention in 2004.

Ben Cardin says that going to war without an imminent threat is a NO!!!

Give us more! :)

He made the enormous political mistake of keeping silent on the biggest political issue to
hit Maryland in years. The 76% proposed rate hike by BGE. Maryland voters rarely stand
up but people threatened to vote out anyone who went for the status quo. Our democratic
assembly has beat off the rate hike and are our heroes, we are waiting to see what Ehrlich
does, he is running for re-election as gov. But for the last 3 months Steele has been silent,
he's muffed it big time.

Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele has remained largely silent during the electric rates debate that has dominated Maryland politics for the past three months, while attempting to cast himself as an independent thinker. Since declaring his bid for U.S. Senate, he has rarely mentioned his Republican affiliation, avoided a recent state party fundraiser featuring President Bush, and even showed up yesterday at campaign breakfast for a prominent Democrat, Rep. Albert R. Wynn.

But yesterday, Steele's aides said he would be at Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.'s side Tuesday during a public hearing called by the governor to criticize the General Assembly's rates relief bill and to gauge support for a veto, though both houses passed the measure with veto-proof majorities

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/bal-md.steele17jun17,1,7787620.story

That is great information.

If Steele wins 25-30% of the African-Americnan vote, he'll win. Conservatives love Steele, and with good reason. He's probably the smartest 2006 challenger running right now, really a great campaigner. If he wins in '06, he'll be on the short-list for '08 VP.

This should be a usual race for Maryland, and in all liklihood, it probably will be. But there's enough to make the race interesting, including the primary. Instead of clearing the field for the establishment choice, Cardin is having a tough time holding down the fort from Mfume and other minor challengers who might split the field enough to weaken Cardin in the primary. Most African-Americans will vote for Mfume, and if they feel that Cardin is taking the black vote for granted, or don't like the way Mfume was treated, Steele will have a great chance. If Mfume doesn't endorse Cardin (if Cardin wins), that's a huge obstacle.

On top of this, a strategist two months ago spent a few weeks travelling around Maryland, polling public opinion and talking face-to-face with voters. He completed his report for the DSCC, and it showed that Steele might be able to persuade up to 49% of registerd African-Americans to vote for him, under the right circumstances. Now, that was a maximum, but if Steele can get half of that, he'll win.

Then again, Maryland is a very blue state, and African-Americans in Maryland give Bush a 2% job approval rating. So there's only an outside chance that Steele will win. But under the right circumstances, this could easily be a toss-up race.

I am telling you that given a choice between a 76% rate hike and a 15-20% rate hike in our utilities Marylanders are going to support who brought home the bacon. Many of my friends
who are African American have been freaking out big time on how are we going to pay for this.
We can't afford this, this issue has inflamed people like no other especially after the huge
costs of heating our homes this winter. My fuel bill alone increased by 50% Voters are not
going to vote strictly on race. Michael Steele is a cold, aloof character. He is no Obama
and there is an African American candidate running against Cardin in the dem primary. If the voters of Maryland choose on race alone then it will be Mfume. (I think he is a likable man but I think he has too much baggage).

And if it is, that one issue will flare up in October or November, not in June. Utility prices will be forgotten by 90% of the voting population by Election Day.

Voters aren't going to vote strictly on race, but they're also not going to vote strictly on party. Between Mfume and Steele, they'll pick Mfume, but if its between Cardin and Steele and Cardin takes the black vote for granted, he could find himself in a much closer race than he should.

but Steele does not have appeal

This is so you can decide for yourselves on Michael Steele, Republican challenger for Senate
in Maryland.

Steele Compares Stem-Cell Research to Nazi Genocide
A few months after the infamous "oreo" incident, new levels of tactlessness are being breached in the Maryland Senate race. Republican Lt. Gov Michael Steele, back from a recent trip to Israel, remarked to an organization of Balitmore Jews that experimentation on human stem cells was akin to the Nazi medical torture of World War II. Quotes the Baltimore Sun:

“You of all folks know what happens when people decide they want to experiment on human beings, when they want to take your life and use it as a tool," said Steele, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, to a crowd of about 40 at a Baltimore Jewish Council board meeting. "I know that as well in my community, out of our experience with slavery, and so I'm very cautious when people say is the best new thing, this is going to save lives."

http://www.removerepublicans.com/tag/Michael%20Steele

Can't take races for granted. Get people on the ground. Go door to door. Press the flesh. Maybe I'm naieve because I have no experience in politics but a great big army of volunteers and a viral marketing effort could outdo any big television advertising spending. (Though that couldn't hurt either).

Mark.

:)

Let's get the evidence out there.

I guess we deserve it.

If nobody gives a flying fuck about recapturing the Senate even on the leading progressive discussion board on the Net...why bother??

~~ We care! ~~

I would've nominated this sooner.. but I just popped in.

And I don't get it either.. the controversial "bad news" posts are the ones that seem to continuously get bumped to the top of the heap for some reason..

Then when there's a GOOD NEWS post like this...... it floats downstream never to be heard from again..


for the AWESOME post!! ... If there's one thing we need more of here, it's good news threads! ~~~~

:)

sometimes it seems that posts about various idiocies get 800 responses and posts with concrete ideas about how to win elections sink like a stone.

I guess it's the nature of the beast. More people read the National Enquirer than read the NY Times.

:)

here this Sunday. I'm planning to attend.