VA Senate: Webb (D) only 5% behind Allen (R)

The poll gap between Sen. George Allen and Democratic challenger James Webb stands at just over five points, according to a Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll released this morning.

Webb defeated Harris Miller in the June Democratic primary to earn the right to challenge Allen in November. Today's poll has Allen favored by 48.8 percent of likely voters, Webb by 43.3 percent.

http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/dp-poll_jun22,0,1696941.story?coll=dp-news-local-final

How AWESOME!

Also for my guy against Hastert lets take the biggest aholes down
www.john06.com

And we may get an upset? :)

I would not be surprised to see Webb use Reagan's name several times during his campaign, since he was Reagan's Navy Secretary, he would have instant credibility with a lot of Repubs that might not be happy with Allen. This could be a very big race.

So much for the "red" South, eh?

*hopin', wishin' and prayin'*

read an article in the LA Times the other day about the Ford running in TN. spent the whole article talking about how much republicans might vote for him because he is so good on republicans issues.

that's the only independent info on him Ive seen here in CA however.


Msongs

can you sing?
www.msongs.com/vocalistwanted.htm

let's take what we can get. If Ford wins in TN, and we take over the Senate, then Dick Durbin runs the judiciary committee, instead of Arlen Specter. And so on.

Durbin is Minority Whip and will be Majority Whip (#2 position in the senate). Although Durbin, Feingold, and Schummer are probably the most active dems on the judiciary committee under Leahy and I believe all of them will get to chair subcommittees if we get the majority.

I'm a Jim Webb zealot.

Go, Jim. Whup his sorry butt good.

Msongs

can you sing?
www.msongs.com/vocalistwanted.htm

:)

Who's going to elect a dumb, goofy-looking, semi-literate hick?

Oh, wait...

Of the dozen polls that have been released over the last six months from a variety of sources, Zogby has always ranked this race closer than any other pollster. When Rasmussen found a 20-point difference between Allen and Webb, Zogby found just a 7-point difference. Which one is correct? I don't know. But concerning this race, Zogby has been an outlier.

I've been here since fall 2002 and whenever we get optimistic about a race like this in a red state, inevitably it bombs. Can't think of an exception in a senate race. We won Arkanasas 2002 but that was with the lead. The only big deficit we nearly overcame was Kentucky 2004 but that was with a much older incumbent who wobbled toward the finish line with one self-inflicted lance after another. Allen will never do that, but Virginia is much less red than Kentucky. I would guess this is a 10 point race right now.

I live in Virginia, and I have been watching Webb for a while now.

He has the one ability that makes ordinary people take notice - he connects with folks. One on one. Face to face.

The stories are becoming commonplace - Webb meets a Republican voter who chastises him for his views on the war. Webb talks to him for 5, 10 minutes. He comes off as sincere, knowledgeable and (most importantly to this type of voter) straightforward.

That voter walks away thinking "A patriotic Democrat. I'll be damned."

No way in hell he should have won northern Virginia (where I live) in the primary, and if he can do that all bets are off in the GE.

It may not be 5 points, but it ain't 10. And the gap is closing.

This one is gonna be interesting, especially when Webb ties Allen to Bush - and he will.

I'll have to check the Virginia online sources and follow this race more closely if Webb is connecting like you say.

I'm still more confident in -10 than -5 but it could easily be somewhere in the middle.

The northern Virginia results will be extremely interesting, regardless of the outcome. Just last week I was looking at Loudoun and Prince William and how they've changed from let's say '96 until today. Kaine did remarkably well. If we can contiinue to fortify the advantage in Fairfax County, Arlington County, Alexandria, etc., a Democrat may be able to overcome the rest of the state on a consistent basis.

and we need all the volunteers we can get. Any DUers who would like to get involved in Fairfax County, I can hook you up to volunteer for as little or as much time as you'd like, on your own schedule. Let's do this!

:headbang: :patriot:

A very conservative county for the most part, but one that is embroiled in a bitter fight over slow-growth zoning. Developers are making Democrats out of Republicans on one hand, but at the same time turning conservative Republicans into arch-conservative Republicans. It is a very defined wealthy vs. poor county as well, as those folks that are sitting on 200+ acre farms that do not want to sell them are at war with those who do. The "individual rights" that Repubs crow about are biting them in the ass here.

NoVA is also very concerend about traffic issues, and the Repub Congress here just passed a budget that phased out the estate tax, but contained nothing(!) for traffic issues. Both Loudoun and PW counties (literally) put Kaine in office predicated on his pledge to address this issue, and he tried to do so in his budget. These two issues alone are helping turn both counties blue.

And lest us not forget about Allen and his "boring Senate" comment.

I don't know the status of Webb's fundraising efforts as of right now, but with Kerry and Clark pledging to do yeoman's work on the campaign trail for him I think the money he is going to raise will make everyone sit up and take notice.

Some would even say a third tier challenger. Mongiardo was a great guy but had very little going for him in the race other than his senile opponent. Webb is a second tier challenger by virtue of the fact that he's a newcomer and doesn't have the name recognition that someone like Mark Warner has, but he has the potential to become a top tier candidate when people get to know him. Also, '04 was a Republican year and hopefully '06 will be a dem year. The way I see it, either a dem sweep on election day will win it for Webb or we won't win this seat along with several others like Ohio, Tennesee, Missouri, and Rhode Island. Santorum and Burns are so unpopular that I think our chances of beating them are very good no matter what happens.

Keep in mind also, that Kaine was 10 points behind Kilgore for a very long time. I've listened to both Kaine and Webb speak and personally I think that Webb has much better political skills than Kaine does. Granted, he's facing an incumbent who will have a bigger warchest than Kilgore. Also, I like the fact that Webb isn't closing the gap too much just yet. About this time in '04 Carson was running neck and neck with Coburn and Bowles was running neck and neck with Burr. Republicans were cautious about these races and that's one of the reasons that we lost them. In this case, I think that Allen will be overconfident with his 10 point lead and then suddenly it will get much closer toward election day and he will be scrambling to take back his lead.

If Warner had challenged Allen, Lott had retired and Moore ran, or if Snowe had retired, or hell if all three had happened, then I'd say that the odds would absolutely be in our favor to take the senate. Right now I'd give the Republicans the advantage of keeping the senate but you never know what will happen on election day.

let me remind you that Jerry Kilgore was around 10+ points (I think) ahead of Tim Kain at one point. And look what happened.

and ended up winning by 6%.

:hi: Just came from the Virginia Forum, and this just answered my question. Thanks for posting this !

but I think this will be the end margin, in November, unfortunately.

But he's got work to do and the voters don't all know him - or even know *of* him - all that much.

I actually *do* think Webb can beat Allen. He's got precisely the personality that people in Virginia can connect with. He's straight atcha. What you see is what you get. No bullshit and no political pandering. That kind of honesty can easily overcome any relatively minor differences a given voter might have with him on some policy or another. Contrast that to 'sweet necatr of liberty' Allen and the difference is not only clear. Its striking. Its stark. An honest guy with a conservative demeanor and no politcial wimping.

I call this for Webb by up to five points.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

The site contains polling results for 17 Governor & Senate races. Please note, their Battleground States Poll does not include all competitive races. Other important Senate races include Montana, which Rasmussen currently shows as a Democratic pickup; and Rhode Island, which is shown by a Rhode Island College poll to be very close to another pickup, 43% (R) to 40% (D).

Taking these other races into account we currently stand to gain a total of 3 seats, and there are 4 other races where we are very close to doing the same: Missouri, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and now Virginia. We need to pick up a total of 6 seats to regain control of the Senate, and momentum is on our side.

Because he would have to be 20 points ahead to have a chance.

I know it bums out the Diebold Defeatists, but we can win elections.

Why would I be bummed out? I'd rather win elections than say I told you so.

Diebold, et al, doesn't steal every election in every county in America. However, in 2004 they stole enough to put Chimpenstein back in the White House. I'm very concerned that in 2006 they will flip enough tight races to maintain control of both house and senate. I'll be very happy to be wrong in November. However, I can't pretend that computer fraud in our elections is not a major risk. I'm not that naive. I work with computers for a living and the system in place today was designed to make cheating easy.

BTW, don't call me or any advocate of transparent elections a deafeatist. It's name calling in the republican tradition and I'll not accept it lying down. IMO, the reality of the situation is that it is an uphill fight made more difficult by the potential for cheating that Diebold makes so damned easy.

though it probably came across that way. Every time someone posts some good news in a poll, there is ALWAYS someone who comes in to piss on the parade with a "but Diebold will steal it" post. Do these posters really think there is anyone on DU who doesn't know about Diebold? No. Then what is the purpose? Is it talk people out of trying?

In 05, Kaine was behind in the polls until the last few weeks. If everyone sat on their hands and said "Diebold will steal it, so why bother," we'd be dealing with Governor "I love Bush" Kilgore right now. Fortunatly, there are enough dems that don't give up.

I apologize. I am just SO frustrated from the bullshit of 2004 they got away with.

So let me start again.
I promise NO negativity.
Are those machines in this race?

Diebold sucks ass, but we can win despite them.

especially those who must "wage slave" are registered to vote.

It will be so nice to get rid of Allen. :-) :hi:

And since there are only three elected positions in VA: Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General, I would imagine that the Governor gets to appoint whoever is in charge of elections on the state level. Diebold machines are highly vulnerable to hacking, but it's not like they're built with source code in them that says "give votes to Republicans". Somebody has to hack into the machine and change the total and usually that someone is a Republican election official. Hopefully Kaine will be smart enough to appoint officials that will make sure to keep Republican hands off of the vote tally.

My hope is that the same will be true with Ohio. Strickland's lead is so big that if Blackwell attempted to annoint himself into the Governor's mansion, then Strickland would take it to court and Diebold would become a serious national story. Once Strickland gets the Governor's mansion and hopefully a Dem wins the Secretary of State race, my hope is that they can make sure that Republican election officials aren't hacking into the machines and in the long term that the machines are replaced or at least have voter verified paper trails.

Soooo fantastic

but Webb has a son in the Marine Corps who is set to deploy to Iraq. Wish him to stay safe.

I also think that this will really help Webb explain his position on the war to voters considering that he has a real stake in this war.

but Allen must have lots of money to spend. I received two expensive looking (glossy photos, multi-paged) "Allen for Senator" brochures in just two weeks.

Last year he convinced a lot of Republicans to donate to him based on the possibility that he would need it to run against Mark Warner for senate. Of course, knowing that Warner had presidential ambitions this was pretty much bullshit and really he was just raising cash for his presidential run. Unlucky for him, Allen is going to actually have to campaign for his seat this year.

To the Virginia voters -- give em hell.

:dem:

I'm working hard with all my daughter's (she's 23) friends who I know have never voted in prior elections. I've been talking to her constantly and she in turn is filling in her friends. I'm going to do some picnics - free food and beer will bring them all! - in late summer with the express reason that we'll all talk about the election. Since they'll have beer, they have to spend the night - so I get at them again over breakfast.

I know it's small, but 80 people showed up for her birthday party in late April, so it's a start. And, they all know more kids that we don't know. That would be 80 votes that no one can count ahead of time since they've never even registered, much to my dismay.

Plus, I live in a red area in the mountains outside of Fairfax. I'm looking for Webb posters, etc to start putting up and will offer to work on get out the vote. I also offer to pick up seniors etc on election day who need a ride to the polls.

WHATEVER it takes. I'm broke but have already started saving a little each week to donate to his campaign.

Patriot

Citizen

Activist

Mom

You must make your daughter REALLY proud. :hi:

:-)

I send him money periodically.

I like Webb because he's honest, has integrity, and spoke out forcefully against the war.
:thumbsup:

The last one I saw Webb had about 10% less.

I have a feeling he might be able to really catch up with this one as more people get to know him.