Follow the Sun: Predicting Population Growth in the U.S.

Wharton School

Follow the Sun: Predicting Population Growth in the U.S.

The greatest future growth in the United States is likely to take place in the West, the Sunbelt and along the I-85 corridor between Raleigh, N.C., and Atlanta, Ga. In a literal sense, Americans are following the sun, since factors such as the number of "bright" or "sun" days in January and the absence of winter heating costs are significant aspects of this anticipated redistribution of population.

The areas that can expect the largest drop in population, or a slow-down in their rate of growth, are mostly in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. "Americans are rapidly leaving cold, damp, and snowy areas for sunnier and drier climates," note Wharton real estate professors Peter Linneman and Albert Saiz in their study, "Forecasting 2020 U.S. County and MSA Populations." One notable exception is the city of New Orleans, which the authors found to be in a steep population decline, even before factoring in the impact of hurricane Katrina.

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Of all the demographic, economic, political, geological and weather-related growth indicators, the authors single out education as the most compelling and permanent factor. "Growth means more than jobs, jobs and more jobs," Saiz cautions. "The brightest, most highly-skilled, most sought-after workers are going to be attracted to the cities with the most amenities. Increasingly, the jobs are following the workers," rather than people following the jobs. These workers "have to be sure that educational opportunities are going to be there for them and their children. In short, smart cities grow faster. We find the same to be true on the county level."
Traditionally, cities and metro regions are places where "productivity" occurs because of the presence of employment opportunities. But, as the authors point out, a sweeping paradigm shift is already under way. Now, cities will also have to measure their importance and their attractiveness in terms of "consumption." Simply put: Is the city in question a place where people, especially highly skilled workers, consumers, will want to spend their time and money? Only those cities and regions where the answer can be an unequivocal "yes" should expect significant growth.

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County by county, the top 10 most likely locations for population growth are: 1) Maricopa County (Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.); 2) Los Angeles County (Los Angeles-Long Beach, Cal.); 3) Clark County (Las Vegas, Nev., including parts of Arizona); 4) Harris County (Houston, Tex.); 5) Orange County (Orange County, Cal.); 6) Miami-Dade (Miami, Fla.); 7) Riverside County (Riverside-San Bernardino, Cal.); 8) Broward County (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.); 9) Dallas County (Dallas, Tex.); 10) San Diego County (San Diego, Cal.).
The top 10 losers, county by county, are predicted to be: 1) Baltimore County (Baltimore, Md.); 2) Oswego County (Syracuse, N.Y.); 3) Herkimer County (Utica-Rome, N.Y.); 4) Cayuga County (Syracuse, N. Y.); 5) Chautauqua County (Jamestown, N.Y.); 6) Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, Pa.); 7) Cambria County (Johnstown, Pa); 8) St. Charles County (New Orleans, La.); 9) Terrebonne County (Houma, La.); 10) St. Bernard County (New Orleans, La.).

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Over time, Republican-dominated counties have tended to grow faster. Does this add new substance to the "red" state versus "blue" state debate? Not according to Saiz: "Population growth is not necessarily associated with politics," he suggests. "Other variables have to be taken into consideration." Many of the metropolitan areas in "red" states have geographic attributes that are associated with growth. "There is no causality between growth and political orientation," Saiz adds. "You have to keep in mind that the growing states are attracting very diverse populations. Over time there will be a definite process of change and conversion. What's thought of as a 'red' state now may look just like the rest of the country in 30 years.".. Reflecting the essentially uncertain nature of forecasting, the authors note that "many unexpected places will be winners or losers in the game of future local real estate development."

Published: June 28, 2006

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/1510.cfm

about skyrocketing home owners insurance rates in Florida due to those pesky hurricanes. That might serve to slow the advance in those areas vunerable to severe storms. Water availabilty might slow growth in the SW. Hard to say how the next few years play out..

Is there anything left of the Colorado after Las Vegas, Phoenix and LA get through with it?

Cities were originally founded based on the availability of, among other things, water (Tigris/Euphrates e.g.) Technology and money can reduce the need for water by getting it (at a cost) from other sources than a local river. Energy helps as well. When money becomes short and energy costs more stuff will get tighter.

How's the water? Enjoy it while you can...

valley and the farms get the water at a lower rate than the municipalities do. That is a coming fight. The farms seem to get their way and the cost of water to the people in the cities is going up as water gets scarcer and other communities demand a fairer share of it. The cost of electricity to run your air conditioner has gone thru the roof. The cost of gasoline to commute to work has gone thru the roof, the cost of housing has gone thru the roof.


Believe me, the snow looks good when you can't afford to pay for utilities, food and housing.

County by county, the top 10 most likely locations for population growth are: 1) Maricopa County (Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.); 2) Los Angeles County (Los Angeles-Long Beach, Cal.); 3) Clark County (Las Vegas, Nev., including parts of Arizona);

Justy wait until the feces smacks into the rotating blades!

of a lot better.

It costs more to live in the sun. Most people already can't afford the cost of housing in the sun belt. If more people come there will be more pressure to build but the developers only want to build Mc-Mansions on postage stamp lots which start at "the low $500,000's" (that was on a billboard I saw last week near Modesto, CA.) Also, you have to commute an average of 100 miles a day to work and live here. That takes about 3 tank fulls of gas a week.

I don't buy this at all.

but what about cooling them in the summer?

Yes, LA by the coast can be cool and breezy, but not in the Southwest, and certainly not in the mid Atlantic region.

climates.