For a state that Bush won by 17%, Georgia Gov race isn't looking too bad

Not looking great either, mind you.

20. If the election for Governor were held today, for whom would you, Sonny Perdue, the Republican or Mark Taylor, the Democrat?
Sonny Perdue 50%
Mark Taylor 44%
Undecided 6%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_062806.htm

What is interesting is that Cox doesn't do as well in the above poll, but in the Rasmussen poll from May...

Sonny Perdue (R) 48%
Cathy Cox (D) 42%

while Taylor does worse.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Georgia%20Governor%20April.htm

How are the GA DUers (or anyone else for that matter) feeling about this one?

He's been running some good ads on TV, and Cox and Taylor have been beating each other up...as usual. I think Cox will win the Dem primary, but I really am a bit nervous about the Nov. election.

For some reason Democrats poll much better than the ballot box results in Georgia. That was true long before Diebold. I can remember the '94 gov race and '96 senate race along with '00 presidential race. Maybe the one exception was Barnes gov race in '98. The 2002 results are not nearly as odd when you look at the polling history in that state. I have a pet theory called PAN or Partisan Adjustment Number that amends state polls like a football pointspread. Georgia is my highest number in the country, +4.5 toward the Republican. So if the poll consensus is 6.5, I'm very confident the true margin is closer to 11.

Besides, just look at that survey in depth and you can see how conservative Georgia has become and what an uphill fight this gov race is. Bush's job approval is basically 50/50, 45% approve and 46% disapprove. The right track/wrong track number for the state is 51% right track, 41% wrong track. That's virtually unprecedented among the states I've looked at. A deep red state isn't throwing out its incumbent GOP gov with a number like that.

My priority in Georgia is the ultimate slime Ralph Reed losing the Lt Gov race. Otherwise, you're looking at Reed as the favorite to take over for Perdue in '10. Plus, he's already indicated he plans to use the gov chair as a launching pad for a presidential bid down the road. Look at the Lt Gov polling for the GOP primary and it's bizarre. Reed leads Cagle 44-41 despite a net negative of 38-47 in approval rating, compared to a net positive of 43-20 for Cagle.

Which probably means that Bush's 17 point victory was really a 1.7 point victory.

win against Perdue. Because of history and the attitudes that still run very deep here in GA, I don't get my hopes to high. I would love to see Perdue gone as govenor. We have been overrun here by the repub govenor and state senate as well as two repub US senators. It's desperately time for a change here.

Send cash, hit men...lol, anything to stop this lunatic! Elmer Fudd as Gov. is bad enough but add the Coalition baby to the works and this state goes back 100 years! We need help! RedTail Wolf.....Cox fan here!