And the Frontrunner Is... John Edwards? (Joe Klein's article in Time magazine)

And the Frontrunner Is... John Edwards?
Joe Klein scopes out an Iowa poll showing the former vice presidential candidate with a surprising lead among Democratic Presidential hopefuls. Is Hillary in trouble?
By Joe Klein--Time
Thursday, December 14, 2006
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Only a seriously diseased political junkie-one without a life, one who hates to go holiday shopping, one like me-would give a local Presidential poll more than a nanosecond's attention this early in the political process. But...hey, it's Iowa and the results are kind of interesting. The Des Moines Register is reporting these numbers in a poll of Iowa Democrats conducted in October by Harstad Research for a group called Environmental Defense:

John Edwards 36%
Hillary Clinton 16%
Barack Obama 13%
Tom Vilsack 11%
Among county Democratic Party leaders, the numbers are even more startling:

Edwards 40%
Vilsack 15%
Obama 11%
Clinton 8%
Some seat-of-the-pants analysis, with help from my pal David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register, the David Broder of the cornfields:

Edwards: He has been working the state very hard, and Iowans really, really like him. They liked him but thought he was too young in 2004, when he finished second to John Kerry in the Iowa caucuses. They liked him last June, when a Register poll had him beating Clinton 30% to 26%. They liked him a few weeks ago when, according to Yepsen, more than 800 Iowans showed up for a John Edwards book signing. "He's just a great fit for this state," says Yepsen. "He's low key, down-to-earth, a nice guy."
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Read the rest here.


Former Sen. John Edwards speaks to a small crowd during a book signing in Columbia, S.C. in November.

If this guy were any stupider he'd need instructions to breathe.

...Honestly!

Iowa is all about how good of a machine you have. Also, Nevada and South Carolina have their caucuses and primaries around the same time. If Obama gets in, he'll win South Carolina easily with the black vote. So I'm not sure I'd call anyone a front runner yet.,

If winning Iowa gives your good message more airplay, yes it makes a difference.

If you don't have a good message, the publicity isn't going to sell your bad message.

meet people. Shake hands, answer questions, go to every county. Edwards already did that in '04. The others haven't done that yet. If Hillary is going to run, she can't phone it in. She has to be out there.