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New NH 2008 poll: Obama and Clinton in statistical dead heat (last month Obama down by 23%)

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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 10:25 AM
Original message
New NH 2008 poll: Obama and Clinton in statistical dead heat (last month Obama down by 23%)

Obama strong in new poll
Illinois senator would beat both McCain and Giuliani


By SARAH LIEBOWITZ
Monitor staff

December 24. 2006 10:00AM

Two weeks after speaking to a sell-out Manchester crowd of more than 1,600, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is reaping the benefits of his visit. If the Democratic primary were held today, Obama would be in a statistical dead heat with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a new Monitor poll. Last month, a Monitor poll showed Clinton trouncing her opponents, with Obama lagging 23 points behind.

"I'm not surprised, because Barack Obama got five days of constant media attention in New Hampshire," said Jim Demers, a lobbyist and former Democratic lawmaker who accompanied Obama throughout the senator's New Hampshire visit. "Obama has demonstrated to the people of New Hampshire that he's a top-tier candidate."

Although Clinton commands considerable support among likely Democratic primary voters, she struggles in general election match-ups, according to the poll. If the contest were held today, both Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani would prevail over Clinton. Obama, in contrast, would eke out a slight win over both Republican candidates. Former Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards is neck-and-neck with the Republicans.

"There are a lot of independents. These are the same people who loathe Bush, loathe the Iraq war," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitor last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. "But deep down, they don't like Hillary Clinton."

http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061224/REPOSITORY/612240366



TPM:


Clinton And Obama Tied In New Hampshire Poll

By Greg Sargent | bio
A new poll out of New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a dead heat, with Clinton at 22% and Obama at 21%. The poll, which was done by by Research 2000 and is scheduled to be published today in the Concord Monitor, finds John Edwards in third place with 16%, and Al Gore in forth at 10%.

On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are similarly tied, with Giuliani at 26% and McCain at 25%, with Mitt Romney third at 10%.

Interesting footnote: While 18% of GOP voters in New Hampshire voters are undecided, only 8% of New Hampshire Dems haven't made up their minds. We'll link to the full poll when it's online.

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/dec/24/clinton_and_obama_tied_in_new_hampshire_poll



A reminder - the latest Iowa poll of Democrats:

Edwards and Obama Tied in Iowa

A new Research 2000 poll in Iowa shows John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama tied among likely Democratic caucus voters with 22% each. Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack trails with 12%, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton at just 10%. All other potential candidates are in the single digits.

Among Republicans, Sen. John McCain leads with 27% followed by Rudy Giuliani at 26% and Mitt Romney at just 9%.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3025437
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Alhena Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. That story made me smile
that is VERY good news for Obama. If this keeps up, Hillary is going to lose her mythical status as invincible front-runner very soon. It's one thing for Obama to lead Hillary in Iowa- a midwestern state that Hillary has largely ignored. It's quite another for Obama to pull even with Hillary in NH, which is Hillary's backyard and crucial for her primary hopes.
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. It's starting to look like Hil won't win ANY of the first 4 contests
That's a change!
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. I hope that turns out to be true when the voters cast their ballots
The next question is by how much will Hillary win the New York primary. She is expected to win NY. I hope the same New Yorkers that reelected her will decide that it is best for them, for the country, and for the party, to keep Hillary in the Senate.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Happy to give you a smile.
:)
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
9. The only reason Hillary is the front runner is because of Big Dog
but Big Dog hasn't looked well lately, and one must ask to what extend will he be able to transfer his goodwill to his wife.
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illinoisprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
2. I Hope Obama runs
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PresidentObama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
4. Seeing how quickly it moved in a month.....
Shouldn't it be noted we have over a year until this really matters?

Polls change, and candidates appeal change.

I'm not saying Barack Obama won't be in a good place a year from now, I'm just pointing out the obvious. We'll see where we are a year from now!
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. You are right but we can still keep an eye on how the race is playing out.
Nothing is inevitable in any way.

The one thing I like about the polls is that the mythical front runner status - Clinton as the "inevitable" nominee is being blown out of the water.

It is a race and I'm glad about that.
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-24-06 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. And it was all at Hillary's expense!
Edwards is still strong, and this is good for we cannot afford to put all of our eggs in one anti-Hillary candidate this early in the game.
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