Senate races in 2008

It is never too early to prepare for Senate races. We have just been shown why a majority of one is not the greatest thing since sliced bread. Gaining in 2008 would be great.

First the bad news. Landrieu is gone. She barely won her first two races with New Orleans intact. Without New Orleans intact she is a goner. No replacement for her would help she is probably the best campaigner we have. She would be a great VP candidate for 2008 for anyone but Hillary. But all that said, she is going, going, gone. Johnson is also very vulnerable. He might retire for health reasons but even if he doesn't, his was the closest Senate race last time and his state is Republican central. He could hold on due to his massive popularity among Native Americans but we would be fools to count on that.

Now the good news. New England, a region with one Republican Congressman, has two Republican Senate seats up. Sununu and Collins are both up for reelection. There is no excuse for us not having well funded, credible challengers to these people. The current governor of New Hampshire should run and if we could get Angus King to run as a Democratic leaning independnet in Maine that would be great. We gave the GOP a Senate seat in Maine last election, that was inexcusible. Allard is in big trouble in Colorado. We already have a challenger for him. Coleman has to go. Frankin, for the good of your nation, run. In several places retirement could help us out. Warner, Dole, Roberts, Stevens, and Cochran could all retire this time. In all of those races, except Alaska, we would have a good candidate and a realistic shot in an open race. Mark Warner in VA, Mark Easley in NC, Stebulus in Kansas, and Moore in MS area all popular statewide elected officials in their respective states (though Warner has been out for a year). In Alaska we would have an outside shot if Knowles ran. We could pick up 4 or 5 seats in this group. We need to pick up 2.

Potential trouble spots. New Jersey and Iowa would suddenly become competative if the current holders Lautenburg (84) and Harkin (69) were to retire. Both are currently committed to running. I am somewhat worried about Lautenburg who came out of retirement to save our bacon 4 years ago. Most 84 year olds are doting on grandkids and greatgrandkids not authoring legislation. Biden is currently running for President. If he gets the nod he has to not run for the Senate. That would be an instantly competative race. I am not too worried about Biden though. He is a long shot for President.

Much will be determined by factors beyond our control but within our control is to be prepeared with great candidates if the oportunity knocks.

What has she done besides prevented a unified Democratic caucus in the Senate. Now she wasn't the only. Lieberman, the Nelson's, and Pryor fit that bill too. The only reasons she might be considered a VP candidate is because she is a woman and the pitty vote that she is from Louisiana. I would rather have someone who is qualified and there are a lot of qualified VP candidates out there.

she would help with any bitterness over a Hillary Clinton loss, and she is a great public speaker. As VP she would only have whatever role the President gave her. Presumedly that wouldn't include the enviroment and tax policy where she has been off the reservation.

If that were the case, Edwards would have held at least ONE Southern state for Kerry. In the end, Edwards did not help us one iota geographically. Kerry might have done better with a purple-state candidate for VP.

i agree that landrieu would be a horrible choice. With so man New Orleans residents now gone, I don't see how she can possibly hold her seat.

I think our best shot for pick-ups are new Hampshire and Minnesota (and possible Oregon). If we see retirements, New mexico and Virginia could easily fall to Dem Senators.

(exactly. think gephardt)

having said that, edwards seems like a much improved
candidate this time . . .

Looking at it from their prespective I can see why. He was an absentee Senator for a third of his term. He didn't have enough good will to survive that and his leftward tack in the primaries.

Harkin is now Chair of the Agriculture Committee. I doubt he retires.

until they carry him out in a box. O8)

Domenici, R-NM. But with Richardson apparently committed to running for president, it's hard to see a Dem candidate.

but we couldn't even knock of Wilson in a Democratic district there so I don't see us winning an open race.

Dems take Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire

Lose none...Landrieu wins, NJ stays Dem, Harkin reelected


Bookmark this page!!!

but I just don't see how Landrieu wins this time. I agree with the rest of what you wrote though.

Johnson's popularity even before his health problems were sky high...

And if he cannot run, Stephanie Herseth is the rising star in that state...I see us holding on to that one no matter what

According to wikipedia recent polls showed Landrieu has a 53% approval rating, with 42% disapproving her, that doesn't give me a lot of confidence. Neither does reading about her winning the previous 2 senate elections.

We definitely need to capture some senate seats, now is a great time to with so many republican seats up for grab, a net gain of at least 3 would be great.

New Jersey's last senate election was considered a toss up, so that could be something to worry about. But then again Bob Menendez had a very low approval rating, and they kept on playing up how he was corrupt in political ads, so that obviously made him vunerable. We'll probably have a better candidate this time around regardless of if Lautenburg retires or not though, plus New Jersey is pretty democratic, so that'll help us to. The thing that worries me though is that lately the republicans have put up good fights in NJ in the governor and senate races, and we won't have the antiBush tide to help us carry us to victory this time around.

NJ and LA will be harder to keep. We will have to wait and see on South Dakota.

Yes, considering her previous narrow margins of victory, she is out of there. Louisiana has been trending strongly to the right since the 2000 election. Just look at how Vitter outright won the other Senate seat without any run off.

As far as Senate gains for Dems, my hope is in states like Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, my native state of Virginia, and my current home of North Carolina.

If John Warner retires and former Governor Mark Warner goes for the nomination, that seat will be a slam dunk for Dems.

If Governor Easley goes for Dole's seat, he has a good chance of taking it from her. If she retires, those chances go up even more.

I'm skeptical of Sununu losing New Hampshire or Collins losing Maine. These are moderate Republicans from New England states that are not as blue as Rhode Island, where Chafee went down.

In New Hampshire, Governor Lynch has already said he has no intentions to run in 2008. Jeanne Sheheen is the next best choice, but I'm guessing she'll back out as well, leaving it to Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand or a State Senator.

In Maine, Angus King is not running, and if he did, it wouldn't be as a Democrat. However, Democratic Tom Allen is a strong challenger, and will be the best we have against an incumbent with +70% approval ratings.

There are several better choices in Minnesota that Al Franken. A solid candidate will give Coleman a run for his money. A novelty may be just the opportunity he needs to hold onto his seat.

Elizabeth Dole, Pat Roberts, and Ted Stevens have already announced they're running for re-election.

In North Carolina, Governor Easley has already said he's not running for Senate, but there's still a pretty decent bench. However, Dole will be difficult to top as an incumbent, especially in a Presidential election year.

In Kansas, Pat Roberts will not get a strong challenge. Kathy Sebelius is going to remain Governor through 2010, though she could be on the short list for VP in 2008. In 2010, the other Republican Senator Sam Brownback is expected to not run again, so Sebelius will be much better off vying for an open seat at the end of her term instead of challenging an entrenched incumbent in the middle of her term.

In Alaska, Stevens will be unbeatable. Knowles will back off and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will hold his ammo for Lisa Murkowski in 2010 or the Governor's mansion in the same year. Look for a State Rep. or State Senator to increase their statewide recognition with a suicide run.

It looks as if John Warner is thinking about running again, which would take that race out of contention. If Mark Warner didn't challenge Allen in 2006, he's not going to challenge the stronger incumbent in 2008, especially if he wants to be considered a VP choice and especially with an open Governor's race in 2009 for him to fall back on. Even if John Warner doesn't run again, I still see Mark Warner taking a pass.

Thad Cochran may retire, but he may not. If he doesn't, he'll win easily. If he does, Mike Moore may be convinced to run, but while he's a strong candidate, he's no guarantee, especially against someone as well-liked and as groomed as Chip Pickering, and especially in a Presidential year.

The strongest candidate Republicans can find in New Jersey is Tom Kean. If Kean can't beat Menendez, he won't beat Lautenberg.

Tom Harkin isn't going to retire, and he may field a strong challenger, but he's always fielded a strong challenger. That's the reason why he has never won with more than 55%. But the reason he always gets a strong challenger is because he's always percieved as vulnerable before he wins re-election. I'm not sure how many more GOP Congressmen want to lose their jobs challenging him. That said, Steve King and Tom Latham are at the top of list. Also, former Governor Terry Branstad is being kicked around in some circles.

If Joe Biden retires, his son will take his seat.

There has been some speculation that Ethan Berkowitz, former Dem state representative and recent Lt. Gov. candidate will run against Ted. Ethan already has good name recognition and is well-liked. Ted's son, former state senator Ben, is in a lot of hot water here legally, could be facing criminal charges soon. These may also involve Ted and influence peddling. Besides, Ted is getting VERY old ... a lot could happen in the next two years. Don't count us out.

I agree with you on Begich. I've always thought he would go national, and he would be an excellent candidate. It would be nice to have another Begich in DC after his father's untimely death in '72.