Is the conventional wisdom that Gore voters are least likely to support Hillary wrong?

jefferson_dem

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:03 AM
Original message

Is the conventional wisdom that Gore voters are least likely to support Hillary wrong?

In NH, she benefits when Gore is out? This finding is not uncommon given previous polls. Without Gore, Hillary's lead over Obama grows.

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A new Research 2000 poll looking at New Hampshire has some interesting results. First, check out who benefits the most when Al Gore is taken out of the mix in a Dem primary. With Gore, Clinton's lead over Obama is minimal (27%-23%), with Gore at 14% and Edwards at 10%. Take Gore out and Clinton jumps to 33%, Obama only moves to 25%, and Edwards moves up from 10% to 15%. The CW we believed is that Gore supporters are least likely to go to Clinton. Is the CW wrong? Or is this just a function of name ID?

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/07/16/271600.aspx

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BobRossi

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:05 AM
Response to Original message

1. Not here

I won't vote for Hillary, and Gore ain't running. Not sure where that puts me but that's where I am.

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jefferson_dem

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #1

3. I tend to agree with you - that at this point, it's mostly about name ID.

Those inclined to support Gore based mostly on his name recognition go to the next "most obvious" choice if he is not an option.

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MonkeyFunk

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Mon Jul-16-07 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #1

11. it just astounds me

how anyone who could have been awake for the last 7 years could refuse to vote for the dem nominee next time around.

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Pirate Smile

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:07 AM
Response to Original message

2. Actually, I believe the polling shows that a significant percentage of Gore

Edited on Mon Jul-16-07 11:11 AM by Pirate Smile

supporters go to Hillary when he isn't included in the question.

That isn't how it seems online but the polling I've seen does seem to show that and, of course, not all Dems pay attention to the Democratic/liberal blogosphere.

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jefferson_dem

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #2

5. Yes, that's the trend. But why?

Dissertations could be written about that sort of electoral "(ir)rationality."

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saltpoint

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:09 AM
Response to Original message

4. Strictly speaking, I'm not a Gore Democrat or a Clinton(s) Democrat unless

of course Al or Hillary wins nomination, then I am.

I have no idea how the polls would shake out if Gore enters the race and/or Sen. Clinton exits the race.

I feel confident that Gore's entry would threaten all announced Democrats in terms of support and donations, but I have no idea how much. If Senator Clinton wins the Iowa caucus, she will be difficult to untrack in Nevada and New Hampshire the following week or so.

If she does not win in Iowa, and right now I would say that's a likely outcome, then she becomes vulnerable in both Nevada and New Hampshire. If Gov. Richardson, say, wins Nevada and Senator Edwards wins in Iowa, Al Gore could easily enter the race to compete first in New Hampshire, win it, and complicate the race big time.

It could be that a lot of Gore voters are not as inclined to support other Democrats, and other Democratic voters may not be ga-ga for Gore.

Hard to tell unless Gore actually announces.

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rinsd

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:13 AM
Response to Original message

6. Gallup shows a similar result. Though they are one of the few that even include Gore (nt)

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Nightjock

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Mon Jul-16-07 11:56 AM
Response to Original message

7. My wife is a die hard Hillary supporter

that would switch IMMEDIATELY to Gore if he jumped in. Personally, I don't know who gets my primary vote if Gore does not run.

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flpoljunkie

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Mon Jul-16-07 12:16 PM
Response to Original message

8. Gore was asked recently on Today Show whether Hillary's the "fresh face" he said party needed in '04

July 5, 2007, 5:30 pm
Gore on Gore, Libby and 2008
By Kate Phillips

As former Vice President Al Gore makes the rounds of television shows and talk shows promoting this weekend�s Live Earth concerts, he�s being asked about a number of other subjects.
.....

As for 2008, Mr. Gore said he doubted he would be a candidate again ever. Asked to talk about some of the current candidates in the Democratic field � including Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton � he demurred. That response, too, for any possible endorsement at this point (remember his backing of Howard Dean?).

Here�s the exchange with Meredith Vieira from this morning:

Q: You were vice president while Senator Clinton first lady. Does she represent a fresh face? You said in�when you weren�t going to run in 2004 the party needs fresh faces.

Mr. Gore: Again, it�s 500 � there are 500 days between now and the election, and that�s the simple reason why I�m not ready to sit down and give you an assessment of all the candidates.

Q: But do you think she represents � why not? You can assess them, can�t you?

Mr. Gore: Well, I�m focused on�

Q: You don�t have to endorse, but�

Mr. Gore: I�m focused on trying to get this message out about the climate crisis. And the horse race of American politics is going to continue to play out over the next year and a half and who�s ahead and who�s behind on any given day, who�s going to the starting gate, who�s not. You know, I�ve kind of fallen out of love with politics.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/gore-on-gore-libby-and-2008/

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JTFrog

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Mon Jul-16-07 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. I saw that interview and noticed

he sidestepped that question quite nicely.

I keep hoping Gore will enter, but if he doesn't I certainly won't be voting for Hilary.

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AtomicKitten

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Mon Jul-16-07 04:24 PM
Response to Original message

10. This flaming Gore supporter will support Obama in a heartbeat

if my boy doesn't throw his hat in the ring.

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