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Polling Flashback: Dean has pulled away from other candidates!

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Turn CO Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:13 PM
Original message
Polling Flashback: Dean has pulled away from other candidates!
Man, I am so excited! It is already December of 2003 and we're getting close to the first primaries, and Howard Dean is WAY ahead of all the other candidates and he is totally set to get the Democratic nomination!

It's a done deal! John Kerry should just throw in the towel; there is no way Kerry can catch up to Dean and THERE IS NO WAY THAT THESE POLLS COULD BE WRONG!

<http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/09/elec04.prez.gore.dean/>

Poll: Dean's New Hampshire lead increases
Thursday, December 4, 2003 Posted: 1:43 PM EST (1843 GMT)

SPECIAL REPORT

(CNN) -- Howard Dean has increased his already sizable lead in New Hampshire, according to a poll released Thursday.

The survey by American Research Group found that Dean had 45 percent of the potential vote among respondents, far ahead of second-place John Kerry, whose support was at 13 percent.

Dean's support was 7 percentage points higher than a poll released November 20.

Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points since that poll.



<http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml>

Special Report
CBS NEWS POLLS

Poll: Dean Pulls Away In Dem Race
Ex-Vermont Gov. Leads Clark And Lieberman By 13 Points


NEW YORK, Dec. 17, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Dean has the backing of 23 percent of likely primary voters, the same as he did in the days just prior to Saddam's capture. (AP)


(CBS) Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has pulled away from the field in the Democratic Presidential nomination race: his support among Democratic primary voters nationwide has risen in the past month, and held steady after the news of Saddam Hussein's capture.

CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
(Democratic primary voters)
Now
Howard Dean
23%
Wesley Clark
10%
Joe Lieberman
10%
Richard Gephardt
6%
Al Sharpton
5%
John Kerry
4%
John Edwards
2%
Carol Moseley-Braun
1%
Dennis Kucinich
1%
Don’t Know
28%




Polls are very SOFT at this stage and mean nothing. Circumstances change. Just ask Howard Dean.

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Double T Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. Maybe we should draft Howard Dean to run as the Democratic candidate for President.........
in 2008. I think NOW he would do very well!
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. I agree....but I also believe that it is the media who decides who's
"in" versus who's "out".....and so unfortunately, this post only reminds me that it simply really isn't up to us.....

If the polls change, it will be because that is what the media has decided should happen. All they have to do is plant their latest "scandal du jour" on some nominee, and **poof**, the nominee loses poll points. It's easy for the media to do this, and so they have and they will continue to do so. :shrug:

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lyonn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Ugh, so true.
And I think I know who the chosen one is.

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Turn CO Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Ted Koppel and the Pew Research poll...here's a good little
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lyonn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
3. Biden fan here. So I guess he has a chance
This was interesting info, not that Dean was ahead but the polling of the other candidates.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:22 PM
Response to Original message
4. You just disproved your point. Dean's percentage is less than Don't know.
2008 is not 2004.

Does that mean victory is assured for Hillary? Certainly not.


But she is in a far better position than Dean or Lieberman or Gephardt ever were.

None of those guys ever topped 30%, let alone 40% in national heats.

This continual citing of 2004 reminds me of generals in WW1 advocating calvary charges.

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Turn CO Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Gore is running 13.9% nationally. That would
be a percentage that would usually be in the "don't know" pile - since Gore has not announced. Picking Gore is like a protest vote or an undecided or a "don't know".

Take that 13.9% and add it to the current "don't know" plus "other" percentages -- and take into consideration how people change their minds (like how they flipped from Dean to Kerry within one week of the Iowa primary in January 2004) and the top three of Clinton, Obama and Edwards should take notice and work harder.



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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. The don't know numbers are far less this time around. (10 to 15% vs 20 to 25%)
Some polls include Gore. Some do not.

The ones that do not include Gore do not have higher "don't know" numbers and Gallup which includes Gore also asks respondents without including Gore.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28687

FoxNews (apologies in advance) also includes Gore and shows a similar trend.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091307_release_web.pdf

Of course if Gore were to actually enter the race the numbers would change and likely significantly.

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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 05:02 PM
Response to Original message
9. I Really Try To Avoid These Internecine Battles
Because I'm all about beating Republicans but Hillary is the most adroit politician in the race... If she was a football player she would be Payton Manning... If she was a basketball player she would be Tim Duncan... If she was a baseball player she would be Derek Jeter... She might not be flashy but she has her trade down to an art...
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Turn CO Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. My contention isn't with Clinton.. it's with the pollsters and polls
I can't believe so many academically minded people (such as DU'ers) place so much confidence in pollsters with predictions less accurate than a five-day forecast from the local weatherman/woman.

It's the pollsters and their agenda and outdated methodology (tiny samplings, only calling landlines, only calling at certain times of day, calling anyone instead of likely, historical voters, push questions) that I question.

So far as candidates, I'm still holding out for Gore, who is polling nationally at 13.9% even without running -- for whatever THAT statistic is worth.

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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Polls Are Mere Snapshots...
The more polls you look at and average the more robust the results...

But they only tell you how people think now...

IMHO, Obama or Edwards need to change the dynamics of the race or HRC needs a major gaffe or scandal for her to lose the nomination...

I was here in 04 and I saw the wars between the Clark, Dean, and Kucinich people and it wasn't pretty...

I just want to elect more Democrats...


We'll see...
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collegegirl211 Donating Member (62 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
11. Clinton has run the most discplined and smart campaign in a long time.
So im not worried, she's going all the way!
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illinoisprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-13-07 06:20 PM
Response to Original message
13. which is why, even if it was favorable to Obama, I would take with a grain of salt.
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