Senate Prospects Continue to Worsen for GOP
By Reid Wilson
In 1980, former California Governor Ronald Reagan beat incumbent President Jimmy Carter in a landslide so massive that eleven Democratic Senate seats went Republican along with the White House. Republicans knocked off a number of Senate lions, including Idaho's Frank Church, Indiana's Birch Bayh, South Dakota's George McGovern and Washington's Warren Magnuson.
Six years later, facing the second midterm election of an incumbent president, historically the worst election for the incumbent party, many of those freshmen Republicans didn't survive. Democrats, in 1986, won back nine seats and lost just one, recapturing the majority.
As more Republican Senators retire and more top-notch Democratic candidates emerge to contest GOP-held seats, many political observers say they see parallels between the 1986 elections and next year's battles. Like 1986, next year features races decided narrowly in Republicans' favor six years earlier. Like 1986, Republicans can't seem to catch a break.
Coming just a year after the September 11th terrorist attacks, 2002 was a banner year for the GOP. On the coattails of a hugely popular incumbent president, the party extended their majority in the House and took control of the Senate, defeating Senator Max Cleland, appointed Senator Jean Carnahan and former Vice President Walter Mondale, who stepped in to replace the late Senator Paul Wellstone, who died in a plane crash.
Six years later, President Bush's approval ratings will be half what they were in 2002 - if Republicans are lucky - and his coattails have become a drag on GOP candidates. Republicans will have 22 seats on the Senate ballot, while Democrats will be forced to defend just 12. And, given early retirements, lackluster recruiting and disappointing fundraising results, Republicans find themselves facing a Senate landscape worse than any either party has faced since 1986, or earlier.
The GOP's crisis comes just one election after having lost Congress to Democrats. "For Democrats, this is like winning PowerBall twice," said Jennifer Duffy, editor of the Cook Political Report and a Senate elections expert. "It's going to be a very challenging year" for Republicans, admitted a GOP consultant involved in one Senate race.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/09/senate_prospects_continue_to_w.html