National Primary Polls Offer Some Insights (however - Can't Predict Early Primary States)

(CBS) By Kathy Frankovic, CBS News director of surveys

Do national polls about the nomination mean anything now?

National polls can not predict what will happen in the early primary states. Iowa and New Hampshire, after all, are different from the rest of the country, both demographically and psychologically. Voters there know more about the candidates: Many people have met more than one candidate - and some have met them more than once. For months, they have been seeing campaign ads and going to campaign events, while people in the rest of the country may just be waking up to the election.

In a nationwide poll that CBS News and The New York Times conducted just before the 1984 New Hampshire Democratic primary, Walter Mondale held what CBS News and The Times characterized as the largest lead ever seen in national polls in the race for a nomination. Fifty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters in that poll chose Mondale, and only 7 percent chose Gary Hart. However, the day after that poll was reported, Gary Hart beat Mondale handily in the New Hampshire primary. Mondale did go on to win the nomination (and lose the election), but the timing of our poll report, and its discrepancy with the New Hampshire outcome raised many questions. Should we even have conducted a national poll before a primary that would mean more to the nomination process than any national poll?

The lesson of 1984 is not to put too much trust in national polls as predictors of primary outcomes. Is there anything that we CAN learn about voters from national polls now? We can certainly see if there are differences between the general population and the people who say they will vote in the primaries or caucuses. We can also gather clues about the possible composition of the primary electorate. Do the most likely voters seem committed to certain candidates? Do they have different issue preferences?

And what does it mean when registered voters say they are “likely” to vote in a primary? We can find out if they have voted before, and if they are DEFINITELY committed to voting this time.


There's alot more stuff for poll junkies at the link - http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/19/opinion/pollpositions/main3274821.shtml